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Convective Outlook Ireland & UK - Sun Feb 13th

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Author Topic: Convective Outlook Ireland & UK - Sun Feb 13th  (Read 85 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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Maghera, N. Ireland


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« on: February 12, 2011, 06:24:31 pm »

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 13 Feb 2011 06:00 to Mon 14 Feb 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 12 Feb 2011 16:47
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK
No threat levels have been issued.


SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Some showers and thunderstorms can be expected over the East Atlantic and the western parts of the British Isles in the wake of a cold front. A few hundred J/kg CAPE are created by steepening lapse rates near the upper cold core of the Atlantic trough. 0-3 km shear is considerably weak and locally 15 - 20 m/s shear from 0-6 km should be too low for organized severe convection.

Another region with a small possibility of thunderstorms is the western / southwestern Mediterranean on early Monday morning when the cold front has passed the Pyrenees. 700 hPa winds reach 20 - 25 m/s in this region and isolated strong to marginally severe wind gusts are not ruled out.
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