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Aurora Alert Thread

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Author Topic: Aurora Alert Thread  (Read 4783 times)
Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #30 on: August 03, 2011, 02:07:01 pm »

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a slight chance for a major event for the next three days (03-05 August). Region 1261 and Region 1263 are both capable of producing a major event and both have a slight chance of producing an energetic proton event.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (03 August). Day two is expected to be predominately quiet with chance a for isolated active conditions late in the day. Day three (05 August) is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm conditions. The increase in activity is forecast due to the expected arrival of the coronal mass ejection from 02/0616Z. Due to the enhanced environment there is a chance for the 10 MeV protons to cross event thresholds with shock arrival.

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