Aurora Watch - March 17/18th

[martinastro]

A full halo CME erupted from active region 1045 this morning, due to this spot's location on the meridian it looked like the CME is more or less Earth directed. Impact is expected on or around March 17th (St. Patrick's Day) so there could be active aurora periods or even a geomagnetic storm for observers at northern and possibly mid northern latitudes during this period.

[martinastro]

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (16-18 March). The increase in activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream on day one and day two, and a slow moving partial halo CME observed on 13 February arriving late on day three.

Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 March

Middle Latitudes

Active 30/25/30 - Minor storm 10/10/10 - Major-severe storm 05/05/05

High Latitudes

Active 30/25/30 - Minor storm 15/15/15 - Major-severe storm 05/05/05

From Spaceweather.com...

This could be just the beginning of a really terrific display on March 16th and 17th. That's when a solar coronal mass ejection (CME) is due to hit Earth's magnetic field. NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of geomagnetic activity and a 5% chance of severe geomagnetic storms. Sky watchers in Alaska, Canada, Scandinavia, and northern-tier US states such as Minnesota and Wisconsin should be alert for auroras'

[markt]

Any luck with this visually anyone? 

[brianb]

cloud, cloud, cloud 

[martinastro]

The CME is not expected to hit until the 17-18th, a solar wind stream before this. We will be fighting a hard battle with cloud here. 

[martinastro]

A reminder to be on full alert if it clears tonight for aurora activity. CME is expected to hit anytime.