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Convective Outlook - Ireland & Scotland - Wed Oct 28th

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Author Topic: Convective Outlook - Ireland & Scotland - Wed Oct 28th  (Read 87 times)
Martin Mc Kenna
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Maghera, N. Ireland

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« on: October 28, 2009, 01:25:33 am »


Valid: 27/10/2009 2100 - 28/10/2009 1800

Situation at 20z Tuesday: High pressure centred over E Greenland, low pressure sytem over mid-North Atlantic ... cold front lies Belfast to Plymouth moving NE with unstable SW flow west of front with trough to the west of Ireland moving NE. 12z Wednesday, weak cold front has cleared SE England warm front lies across NW Eire, UK in a SW flow.

WV imagery shows shortwave trough moving NE to the west of Ireland this evening, this is creating an area of convection/CBs in unstable airmass over E Atlantic waters with steep lapse rates beneath colder upper air of trough. This area of showers with isolated sferics may affect the west and N of Eire tonight and later on tonight/Wednesday AM the west and SW coasts of Scotland. Showers and any isolated t-storms may be accompanied by hail and gusty winds. Fairly strong vertical shear tonight, especially across western Eire, may allow stronger updrafts to rotate in cells that come ashore - so an isolated weak tornado cannot be ruled out, though risk looks to be too low for a categorical risk.

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