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Convective Outlook - SW Ireland - Fri Oct 9th

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Author Topic: Convective Outlook - SW Ireland - Fri Oct 9th  (Read 92 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« on: October 08, 2009, 08:55:29 pm »

8pm Thurs, from Tony Gilbert...



Moderate Risk of Strong Convective Development 08Z-15Z SW Ireland Fri 9th Oct 09

Slight Risk of Tornado Development 08Z-12Z SW Ireland

UKMO synoptic forecast an Upper frontal feature followed by surface occlusion developing heavy rain across much of Ireland through Friday. Particular attention is given to the potential for isolated strong cells developing close behind within a surface trough. The potential here is made apparent by the shift of subsidence away to the north and to the south in the wake of the occlusion. Strong increase in vertical shear looks likely from cloud base upward producing the perfect environment for storm cells to perpetuate and become sustained. This times in well with a very dry mid level fetch from the south enhancing potential instability by utilising the cold pooling more efficiently from the west. Prime risk strong gusts none severe!

Whilst there may be some restriction with low level speed shear, we can see a good spread of directional shear available. Given the potential for strong updraft and a combined (exceptionally) low LFC and LCL I cannot rule out a Slight risk of tornado development. This, within a short duration of maybe just one or two hrs to the furthest SW corner of Ireland. Should also see some limited thundery activity.

This convective outlook has a limited time duration with the occlusion and subsequent trough becoming less convective by mid day as temps cool and upper PVA aloft moves ahead quite rapidly

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martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2009, 11:33:38 am »

Look at the radar over SW Ireland at min... Shocked

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

Bang on where the tornado risk is.
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