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Convective Outlook - Ireland & UK - Tues Sept 1st

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martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« on: August 31, 2009, 08:50:48 pm »



Slight Risk of Scattered Thundery Showers Eire & northern/ western quadrants of UK 09Z-18Z

ATM rather a low level risk outlook with the main threat associated with 'near' severe level convective gusts over the UK.

Post frontal troughing develops further showers primarily west coastal region UK and Ireland through Tues as an upper cold pool overspreads the region increasing lapse rates at a steady pace. Moderate upper jet is neutralized somewhat by equal speed shear at the top of the boundary layer. In short there is some restriction in vertical shear and hense any storms may appear rather messy. Low level shear on the other hand looks rather strong across S.Wales and central south later in the day. Though ATM with limited life span likely on updrafts then the risk of tornado development might seem rather marginal.

My main concerns much like Monday's outlook is the lack of dry air at mid levels and the timing of the PVA maximums.

Though certainly one to keep an eye on.

PS. Please note that this outlook shows a very broad risk region. When in reality only a few places will actually see any storms within the full span of the box shown below. By Tony Gilbert.
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brianb
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« Reply #1 on: August 31, 2009, 11:01:22 pm »

Anyone noticed the band of heavy rain over western NI at the moment? (Frontal trough I think)
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martinastro
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« Reply #2 on: August 31, 2009, 11:35:53 pm »

Yes indeed Brian, I was out for ages after dark watching it approach hoping for a Moonbow. I seen a flash of lightning to my S. Sferics are showing some scattered strikes from it. Keep an eye on it as it moves N.
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martinastro
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« Reply #3 on: September 01, 2009, 01:13:43 pm »

Loads of showers gathering in the W and will soon move E across the country today. Between 800-900 CAPE and LI between -2 and -3. Convection here is showing signs of wind shear. There could be funnels/weak tornadoes today. TORRO have a tornado watch issued for the S of Britain.
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markt
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« Reply #4 on: September 01, 2009, 02:39:58 pm »

We're certainly having some impressively heavy thundery showers today  Smiley
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Padraig OBrien
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« Reply #5 on: September 01, 2009, 05:05:12 pm »

got some nice pics of very impressive mammatus today
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martinastro
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« Reply #6 on: September 01, 2009, 05:41:10 pm »

Spent the entire day out. Lots of intense showers but just the one rumble of thunder. The showers were really trying their best with some cool gust fronts bending around the rain and one area of very strong rotation observed. Cool temps and lack of wind shear seemed to kill the potential. Cells seemed to lack energy and got swamped by outflow. Having said that there where many huge anvils in the N heading NE with bases almost touching the ground. Quite an Autumn-like day. Nothing photogenic but good to see some convection again.
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