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Tornado Risk - S. Britain - Wed Sept 2nd

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martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« on: September 02, 2009, 07:37:21 pm »

Latest update from Tony Gilbert...



Slight Risk of Thunderstorms UK regions as per map 18Z-03Z

Moderate Risk of Brief Tornado Development 20Z-03Z Central South and SE UK regions .

Probably a bold statement. Though based on the model output we do in fact IMO have a significant risk here for the next few hrs.

Whilst I agree with the earlier forecasts and comments on the thread. For me, I see the primary risk along the post frontal trough as it tracks east in the wake of the triple point.

Particular attention is once again drawn to the rapid influx of dry air at 700mb upwards and its influence on the lower mid level lapse rates. In short any vertical moving parcel should enhance this thermal differential and produce strong though relatively brief updrafts. Low level shear forecast continues to show 45 deg veer up to 850 mb with around 25 kts of speed shear. Such levels of vorticity can deliver enough vorticity into any updraft to produce tornadoes. The suggest of 'brief' is attributed the lack of continued increase in speed shear above this level.

So all in all a specific risk will apply now for the next few hrs central and SE UK. Probably the most significant risk that I have seen for this region so far this year.

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