Astronomy, Photography and Weather
December 06, 2022, 02:11:35 pm
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
News: IAA lecture programme continues alternate Wednesdays from September - an excellent programme of lectures- Queens University Belfast - Bell Lecture Theatre. Also keep an eye out for the Summer Events
  Home Help Search Gallery Staff List Login Register  

Tornado Risk - S. Britain - Wed Sept 2nd

Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Tornado Risk - S. Britain - Wed Sept 2nd  (Read 808 times)
Martin Mc Kenna
Global Moderator
Hero Member
Posts: 5182

Maghera, N. Ireland

View Profile WWW
« on: September 02, 2009, 07:37:21 pm »

Latest update from Tony Gilbert...

Slight Risk of Thunderstorms UK regions as per map 18Z-03Z

Moderate Risk of Brief Tornado Development 20Z-03Z Central South and SE UK regions .

Probably a bold statement. Though based on the model output we do in fact IMO have a significant risk here for the next few hrs.

Whilst I agree with the earlier forecasts and comments on the thread. For me, I see the primary risk along the post frontal trough as it tracks east in the wake of the triple point.

Particular attention is once again drawn to the rapid influx of dry air at 700mb upwards and its influence on the lower mid level lapse rates. In short any vertical moving parcel should enhance this thermal differential and produce strong though relatively brief updrafts. Low level shear forecast continues to show 45 deg veer up to 850 mb with around 25 kts of speed shear. Such levels of vorticity can deliver enough vorticity into any updraft to produce tornadoes. The suggest of 'brief' is attributed the lack of continued increase in speed shear above this level.

So all in all a specific risk will apply now for the next few hrs central and SE UK. Probably the most significant risk that I have seen for this region so far this year.

Report Spam   Logged

Pages: [1]
Jump to:  

Bookmark this site! | Upgrade This Forum
SMF For Free - Create your own Forum

Powered by SMF | SMF © 2016, Simple Machines
Privacy Policy