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Tornado Risk - S. Britain - Wed Sept 2nd

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martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« on: September 02, 2009, 02:06:18 pm »



TORRO TORNADO WATCH 2009/006

A TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 12:25GMT on Wednesday 2nd September 2009

Valid from/until: 12:45 - 01:30 on Wednesday 2nd/Thursday 3rd September 2009, for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Parts of (see map)

Wales

Midlands

E Anglia

All of southern England

Channel Is

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 60mph; hail; occasional CG lightning.

SYNOPSIS

Deepening Atlantic low will push its frontal system across the British Isles over the next 24 hours. Several small dry intrusions/short-waves are evident on WV imagery: one is surging towards W Wales; another is pushing towards SW England; a third is passing S Eire. As the first two of these overspread the tropical moist sector, instability is expected to be released - indeed, a couple of sferic have recently been detected in the SW approaches. In addition, the leading edges of the dry intrusions seem to be promoting some line convection ('ropes' evident on vis satellite imagery).

Low-level shear just ahead of the expected convection looks to be sufficient for low-level rotation, bringing the risk of a few tornadoes, should convection root near the surface. In addition, strong wind gusts are likely with any organsied convection, e.g. lines. The intensity of the low-level flow, especially SE of S Wales to the Wash, means that a strong tornado is possible.

Forecaster: RPK
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