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Weekly Forecast (UK) March 16th - March 22nd

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Author Topic: Weekly Forecast (UK) March 16th - March 22nd  (Read 109 times)
martinastro
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« on: March 14, 2009, 04:51:39 pm »

Thanks to the UKWW for this....

WEEKLY FORECAST FOR Monday 16th March -Sunday 22nd March 2009

ISSUED Saturday 16th March 1300Z 

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WARNINGS OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER:
Low risk of moderate/heavy snowfall in eastern Scotland by the weekend

WEEKLY SUMMARY

 A mild or locally warm and dry week with good sunny periods by day as high pressure dominates with a lot of early mist, fog and frost patches about, though the eastern coasts may become chilier with sea haar about. By the end of the week a lot of cloud and drizzle about in the west in a mainly S'ly flow with high pressure still to the east as low pressure runs into the W Scotland and sinks SE. Probably becoming rather colder from the north by the weekend with the risk of further unsettled weather and some outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow moving SE but confidence is quite low. 

DAY BY DAY OUTLOOK   

Monday 16th will see high pressure across England and Wales but a front straddling N Ireland & Scotland so a bright but reasonably clear start across Wales and England with some slight frost or a ground places initially inland and thick fog patches too in prone areas , but these should clear fairly quickly. More cloudy in the north and west with some rain about across much of Scotland and N Ireland, some heavy over western upslopes but clearing away north and dying out generally by the late afternoon. Mist and fog patches reforming by late evening inland across England, Wales and S Scotland. Temperatures up to a quite warm 14-16C in E Wales, the English Midlands, Lincs and E Anglia away from coasts but more like 10-12C nearer south & west coasts and in the north and west and only 5-7C across the far north, Northern Isles and Highland Scotland.

Tuesday 17th should see the area of high pressure working north to lie over Scotland. Any light rain confined to  the N Isles slowly clearing by mid morning. An early frost in places along with fog patches which may be quite extensive inland almost anywhere; the highland glens of Scotland may see a moderate frost initially. Generally then a day of good sunny periods almost everywhere the exception being the far NW which may well stay rather cloudy. Another slight ground frost and mist & fog patches re-developing under clear skies inland by late evening, notably milder round coasts especially the SW. SE and eastern coastal districts may stay cloudier and rather chillier though with some sea haar about. Temperatures becoming warm inland in places at 14-16C in the south, generally 10-12C though and only 6-8C in Scotland. 

Wednesday 18th will see the main area of high pressure sinking away SE to Belgium but leaving a ridge NNW to Scotland. A chilly or cold start with a fairly widespread ground frost and some dense mist or fog patches right across the UK inland, except for the SW of England, W Scotland and N Ireland where it may be cloudier. A generally sunny day then for most areas after the any mist & fog clears but most NW'ern parts will see more in the way of cloud with some coastal low cloud, the NE coasts may see some haar too. Another fairly mild or warm day inland especially in E Wales and the W Midlands and central southern England with temperatures about 14-16C generally, but more like 9-12C around coasts and in the north and only 7C in the Scottish Northern Isles.   

Thursday 19th will likely see the ridge of high across the UK with a mild S-SE'ly flow over western parts. A lot of low cloud, hill and coastal fog and drizzle about in the west and SW probably but otherwise inland a clear start with mist and fog widespread along with a slight frost or ground frost. Clearing by mid morning to give bright or sunny periods again for most parts but sea haar may effect east coasts in a more E'ly flow. Temperatures becoming fairly warm for mid March in E Wales and central southern England and the Midlands away from coasts, where sea breezes may develop, at 13-17C but more like 9-13C nearer the coasts, and especially the east coasts and in E Scotland, in the E-SE'ly flow it may only reach 7-9C.   

Friday 20th becomes more uncertain but is likely to see the high pressure still in control mainly but it may move to the NE and allow a more ENE'ly flow to assert here whilst fronts try to push into the west but weaken as they move into the higher pressure ridge. So a mildish S'ly flow continuing in the west with a lot of cloud about and some light rain/drizzle at times moving into N Ireland and W Scotland, after a mildish night here but elsewhere fog and frost to start again inland away from the east coasts where the breeze and some cloud will keep it away. Sunny periods inland by day but a lot of cloud about along east and SE coasts in a chilly NE breeze. Some mist and fog patches returning inland by evening in the south and the E Midlands probably. Temperatures reaching 12-14C  in the south & the Midlands, but more like 9-12C generally across W Wales, the SW, eastern and northern England & N Ireland and just 4-7C across the east of Scotland & E Highlands, so feeling chilly here.

Saturday 21st and Sunday 22nd are frankly still very uncertain as regards detail, but it looks like a colder NE'ly flow may develop as low pressure across W Scotland sinks SE by Sunday into the near continent allowing much colder weather across all parts eventually. The low pressure may give some rain and possibly becoming cold enough by later Saturday to give some sleet or snow at times in the north, the snow initially more likely over higher ground. A chilly start in the clearer parts of the north on Sunday with perhaps a frost. Probably some sunny periods by day especially in the south, west and SW. The north & east of the UK is perhaps most likely to remain cloudy with some rain or sleet about with hill snow at times but confidence is currently low on distribution and amounts.  Temperatures over the weekend by day will start near average in the south but chillier in the north as colder air runs south, especially the Highlands and the north of Scotland; generally around 2-5C for most by Sunday, though 6-8C in the SW; notably cold for late March. 

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FEATURES TO MONITOR THIS WEEK

*A lot of low cloud over hills with hill fog almost anywhere in Wales, the west and Highlands of Scotland & NW England, along with SW England and N Ireland later in the period

*Some lowland fog patches by night about more especially in central and southern inland areas in the early/mid week period

*Slight frosts possible almost anywhere inland during the week until Thursday and then again over the latter part of the weekend, esp in the north 

*Snow risk on high ground by Friday in the north, more especially across the Northern Isles then eastern and Highland Scotland on high ground above 350m but by Sunday perhaps further south across Southern Scotland, N Ireland, & northern and central England and not just confined to high ground.

*Icy patches about in the north and upland central areas too by the weekend

FORECAST CONFIDENCE is high but moderate-poor from about Friday onwards

Wiseweather disclaimer: The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of this data. Wiseweather are providing the data "as is" and disclaim any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will Wiseweather be liable to you or to any third party for any use or misuse of the forecasts or related data

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Dave Wiseman
UKww Executive/C & M Manager/Warnings team
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