Astronomy, Photography and Weather

New thread started as the cold spell looks to continue for a week or so yet.

A band of rain will turn to snow as it passes acrss N. Ireland on Fri morning bringing widespread sleet and snow away from coastal areas with several inches possible on high ground. These will be followed by hail and snow showers during Fri night and into Sat morning which in conjunction with freezing temps will lead to ice and hence dangerous driving conditions. There is also a slight risk of freezing rain in parts. Some of the post frontal showers could be electrified over N and NW coasts so further thundersnow is possible. The Met Office already have an advisory issued for both days.

Here's the snow charts for both UK and Ireland for Fri and Sat from Netweather GFS charts...

(http://i55.tinypic.com/2yjpkzb.png)

(http://i54.tinypic.com/nf012r.png)

I'm hopeful that as this band comes through the midlands it will bring some additional snowfall tomorrow afternoon / night, fancy a bit more than we've had so far.  Though today it has snowed all day - lightly - and as a result i can report that we have gone from a couple of cm cover to a couple of inches cover!!!  :o  It finished just before tonights rush hbour started, and the temperature is already below freezing out there - the roads and pavements are treacherous.  I'm glad I can walk to and from work as it takes much less time in these conditions than walking.  Even the main roads round here are frozen slush - its gonna be gridlock!!!  :P

We're due -10C (14F) tonight

Met Office severe weather warning for NI on Monday for snow, freezing fog and ice. There could also be rare freezing rain...

Co Antrim
Co Derry
Co Fermanagh
Co Tyrone

Heavy Snow & Widespread Icy Roads 0600 Mon 6 1500 Mon 6 A band of rain and sleet will spread south early on Monday morning and turn increasingly to snow, persisting through into the afternoon. Initially the precipitation will fall onto frozen surfaces with widespread ice developing on untreated roads and pavements, and accumulations of 5 to 10cm of snow expected. The public are advised to take extra care and refer to TrafficWatchNI.com 

Looks to be interesting times ahead - cold, if calmer weather predicted now through to around the weekend, with potentially milder conditions briefly thereafter (note milder = just not as cold) - then things could get interesting with all the chatter on the longer range forecast hinting at a return to much colder conditions again with easterly winds.  Deja Vu anyone?

FYI it is snowing hard here at Portballintrae (Mon 6th, 11 am)  - something it rarely does. Accumulation is approx. 1 inch so far. Temp -2C, little wind (southerly force 2), baro 1000 mb steady.

1200 update: snow is easing off but still falling. Accumulation approx. 3 inches. Temp up to 0C but no sign of thaw.

1315 update: snow ceased, band of bright / clear sky to N, temp +2C, thaw underway.

Looks like there's more to come in the run up to Christmas of what we all had last week...


Here's Jo Bastardis take...


CORE OF COLD PUSHES SOUTHEAST NEXT 5-7 DAYS BUT RELOADING FARTHER BACK NORTHWEST THREATENS NEW SEVERE COLD FOR NORTHWEST DEC. 14-20.
Winter's core will push farther southeast this week and while it's cold to start in the northwest, it does get milder for the late week, even above normal a few days over Ireland and much of the northern part of the United Kingdom.

IN FACT, LOOKING AT THIS, IT'S A REAL LIVE THAW COMING FOR MUCH OF THE UK AND IRELAND... but only for few days.

However, this is not the end. The pattern is very similar Dec. 14-23 to Jan. 1-10 last year. If you remember, major cold engulfed much of China, the eastern U.S. and Europe to open the new year and another round of major cold appears to be lurking in the longer term in the areas in Europe that have suffered the last two weeks. I think what we are seeing here is the evolution southeast of the core of cold so for the heart of winter, it is where it will be later this week into part of next week, but enough blocking continues to pull this cold back so another round of UK covering snow and cold may be in the works the 15th, perhaps all the way to around Christmas. The lack of the true flip (the warming coming is an island of warmth in the sea of cold) means this is likely to be the coldest December for the northwest since, well, we have to go back a long, long time.

In the meantime, by the weekend the worst cold will be in the south of Europe (relative to normal) with the core swinging from southern France into the Balkans by early next week as the northwest warms. Again, I do not have the time to post on this the way I would like too, but I felt this big ticket shift back and forth of extreme cold is something I should warn you about.

Logged -9 dg in the car at 7am. Report of -16 dg in south Yorkshire.  :o

A very exciting forecast from Joe, I like it alot  :), thanks for the update Mark.

Hours of snow here today, 6" on the car roof, roads around Maghera are unreal, cars and lorries sliding so very dangerous. On Glenshane all the lay bys were snowed in so I had to drive to Dungiven in order to get turned and head back home again. Got to hand it to the road service up there, they had non stop ploughs and salters going over the pass which was great, even famers snow ploughing, at times 2 or 3 in a row ahead of the salters. The view of the moutnain and forest up there covered in snow was stunning.

 Another thanks  too, Mark. He said in the last forecast posted here that southern Europe will be hit hard. Our weather has certainly caught his attention. We've got  - 4C (24.8F) now and dropping. I see Stoke-on Trent (Midlands ) is due -10C (23F) tonight,be lower out in the rural areas as these are urban area temps. We've got fog too.

-16C  (3.2F)  in South Yorkshire ??  This is as bad as the start of the year.


Looking forward to the photos,Martin, sounds great with you. I saw the BBC weather with snow covering your area earlier.

Very cold out tonight the lane at home is treacherous after the snow today neither my car or my brothers could get up to the house.

(http://i54.tinypic.com/2nghi5g.jpg)

Mine sitting in the driveway ::) Nice image Jonathan with the stars above.
(http://i54.tinypic.com/b7avrn.jpg)

Nice pickies guys!  The snow that was over you yesterday seems to have gained slightly in intensity (after loosing intensity for a while) - will be interesting to see if we see any more snow further south today...

Good pics- I like the night-time one. No  extra snow here..just very cold.

Very odd here last night - temp varying wildly & rapidly between -7C and +2C seemingly independent of cloud cover - probably a cold land breeze fighting the northerly drift which is (relatively) warm after contact with the sea, whose surface temp is around +11C.

Heavy snow showers on and off last night here, then today I ventured out to find that the Lough Neagh shore at Ballyronan Marina has frozen over for the second year in a row, very far out too in places around the distant boats. The ponds in Magherafelt park are also frozen with ice. Some amazing scenes today with the snow, ice, freezing fog, and friendly Robins. Large icicles over a foot long hanging from rooftops in places too.

Snap Martin!  I've been out today as well, i concentrated on rivers and tried a few locations and came across lots of frozens rivers and ice together with the ice on trees and blue skies, it made for some beautiful scenery. Had to negotiate some lethal road conditions on the minor roads too, filled a 4gb memory card so whoever asked to see more winter pics could be regretting it whenever i sort through them  ;D ;D

Crack on with them,Paul..we're all waiting.  :)

Indeed!  ;)

I will second that, get cracking man  :). Thanks for the text message today, it was good to hear from someone else out shooting, when I got your message I was photographing the snow and ice at Lough Neagh at the time, it put a smile on my face when I read that you were doing the same. Sounds like you had amazing photo opps with the rivers, I really like the sound of those trees and ice with blue sky - proper Winter opps.

My own shoot wasn't so good, took over 250 images, mostly of the frozen Lough, not to mention many attempts at trying to catch a Robin up close with a 18-55mm kit lens which was fun. I have a shot showing 8 Robins in the one tree - a first for me. Of course some of the finest sights I saw was when I was driving and couldn't stop the car due to snow on the roadsides, these last two days have produced the most amazing sunlit fog/snow scenes which were simply incredible, I got a few not so good quick snaps using a filling station to get parked, then the owner came out staring at me with dirty looks. I'm going to miss all these Winter scenes with the thaw. I hope the next cold spell moves in fast. Looking forward to seeing your images.

In retrospect it has been amazing, for me it's been 15 days of snow, ice, frost, severe temps, 6 nights of thundersnow, big icicles, record temps, and now Lough Neagh frozen again for the 2nd year in a row, last year it was a 60 year event which indicates how severe things have become. I have a feeling the best is yet to come this Winter!

Excellent image of trees covered with rime ice in todays Daily Mail

Joe Bastardi is now talking about a 'serious' and 'severe' cold event likely for UK and Europe next week until 2 or even 3 weeks into the future, he stressed that he hoped people were prepared. Will be interesting to see if he's correct.

Thanks for the heads up Martin - heres the link http://www.accuweather.com/video/704630559001/bastardi-europe-gets-hit-by-extreme-cold.asp?channel=vbbastaj

And the previous forecast from a day or 2 before http://www.accuweather.com/video/700277018001/european-then-you-are-a-freezing-the-next-couple-of-weeks.asp?channel=vbbastaj  (sorry to post out of context).

Michael Fish latest video forecast for the coming days http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=michaelfish;sess=

Serious winter weather is in store for both UK and Ireland this week, a south plunging cold front on Thursday will bring rain, sleet and snow across much of the country. Behind it frigid polar air moves in rapidly causing freezing temps and big snow showers all across the country with cold air convection looking strong enough to produce two days and nights in a row (Fri-sat) of thundersnow storms over the Ocean, coastal regions, and even inland. This could be quite a spectacular week of photogenic weather action if the models continue with this trend. Here's the snow charts from Neweather GFS for Thurs  :)

(http://i55.tinypic.com/4smpag.png)

Met Office severe weather warnings already out for all of UK from Thurs-Sat

There might even be tornado potential from the cold front on Thurs.

This cold spell looks like it's going to be pretty nuts!  I've been following the discussion about it on the netweather forecasting model discussion on their forum.  Looks like it has the potential to be the 'prefect storm'.  :o

Have been following the chat as well Mark, the initial cold front and the sudden temp drop look significant not to mention heavy snow showers and blizzard conditions. Good chances of another thundersnow event happening Martin. I hope they do push more inland in the N and N/W flow. This could be a busy thread in the coming week!

Arctic blast warning out for Thurs from Netweather...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=forecast;type=alert;reg=7

Some people are saying this set up is rare and a once in a life time event for this country!

Yes!  Its the waiting game now, couple more days till 'the day after tomorrow' hits!  ;D

Regression is now beginning to occur over the North Atlantic Sector. The slow moving high with a fair amount of low cloud and clag trapped above a chilly but quite moist airmass is slowly being forced to regress towards Iceland forced by warm advection over the Western Atlantic which is increasing 500mb contour heights in the vicinity of the Davis Straight and Greenland. At the same time a very cold pool of air which has originated in the Canadian Arctic is moving around the top of the high and will be forced south over the NOrwegian Sea towards the North Sea and the UK. This pool of cold air is very cold and has very low DAM heights, reflecting its true Arctic Characteristics. However upper air coverage is very sketchy in the source region so there are still fairly large disrepancies in the model evolution, however the overall synoptic pattern is well forecast and has Mod -High Confidence.

The Arctic front surges south on Thursday, ahead of this less cold air will be present across much of the UK. The frontal system occluding as it moves SE across the UK into Europe. Arctic air undercuts the front as it surges south later on Thurs, the Rain turning to sleet and snow, though really only the back edge, some heavy snow likely in places breifly though accumulations fairly minimal due the speed of the front. However the front will bring a sharp drop in temperature and a serious risk of ice forming on roads which have seen salt washoff. A very cold night into Friday with Snow showers becoming increasingly heavy and prolonged with deep instability in the coastal areas by Friday. Forecast Ascents are deeply unstable with CB's easily achieveable given the very cold air above. Showers blowing a fair way inland on the strong N to NW winds and a marked windchill. Daytime temps away from shelter and decent sunshine will be low and most likely sub zero for most of the day.

Later on Friday another development grabs the interest. This one develops in baroclinic zone NW of Ireland, A tightening of the Thermal gradient interacts with the upper trough and NW Jet to form a wave low which is set to run SE, now the issue is how much this develops. The 12Z GFS is very developmental with this, the UKMO less so and the ECM somewhere in between. The GFS takes a rapidly deepening low across N Wales into Norfolk and then dumbelling into NE England with Snow developing and pushing into many areas (though a more rain/sleet mix for a time in the Far south and SE, though turning to snow even here as the winds swing offshore) The ECM is similar but less surge of warmer air and the UKMO run a low into the Channel into Belgium. The Models struggle with these kind of wave developments and history suggests that they overdo the development and they tend to be weaker than sometimes forecast. I tend to think some thing between the UKMO and ECM is most likely to be correct and that the 12Z GFS maybe overdeeping the low and producing a more rapidly developing low.

Study of the 12Z Postage stamps indicates considerable variability with this feature from very deep lows to shallow waves, indicating the considerable uncertainty. However if the low comes in a period of Mod/Heavy Snow is possible in many places across England and Wales. The GFS produces several Cms across many parts and derived ECM fields from rainfall suggest similar totals crossing many central and southern areas. We will need more runs before concluding too much here. However the period from FRi through Sunday looks very cold with widespread frost and in many places some heavy snow either from Showers or from more prolonged Snow...Credit: Paul Blight.

Trouble....

(http://i55.tinypic.com/otlm38.png)

Thats a damn scary looking chart  :o

We are not the only people getting a severe Winter, check out this blizzard in the US mid west captured by Mike Hollingshead recently, he sent this over to me so I thought I would add it here. Look at the inside of his car!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPxpZaOgllA

Very odd ... baro is 1041 mb & still rising; I wouldn't expect a major weather event in the next couple of days!

Met Office has a 1044 mb core off the WNW coast of NI for midnight, over the next 24hrs this slowly rotates, heading off to Greenland - rising still further as it does.  Guess it sets up a nice big pressure gradient for the rip roaring polar flow that is enroute :)

Incredible ... very little wind & substantial clear periods until midnight, overnight min temp +4.8C, baro 1042 mb ... I don't doubt that it's going to change but I think the "perfect storm scenario" is grossly overstated. Met Office forecasts are gradually shifting to a less extreme event too.

I saw that too Brian, I noticed the BBC forecasts today playing the whole thing down to 'scattered snow showers' mainly in the 'N and NE' with mostly rain and sleet from the cold front. I think the biggest event will be the cold from this and possible convective activity. I would certainly like to be near the NE, N and NW coasts on Fri night or Sat - deep convection with electrified cbs with thundersnow are possible, the Irish Sea would be the prime place too. Some think the cold front will be convective with a risk of thunder and even a tornado. As for snow...I guess we won't know until it happens...there's alot happening with this system, check out this detailed simulation which is fascinating...

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=40628&posts=10

From Skywarn UK...

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WATCH #012
ISSUED: 0000UTC, WEDNESDAY 15TH DECEMBER 2010.

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:
ALL REGIONS IN SCOTLAND
NORTHERN ENGLAND
NORTHWEST ENGLAND
EAST MIDLANDS
WEST MIDLANDS
EAST ANGLIA
WALES
NORTHERN IRELAND
SOUTHWEST ENGLAND

IN EFFECT FROM 00UTC ON THURSDAY 16TH UNTIL 1200UTC ON FRIDAY 17th DECEMBER 2010.

ARCTIC FRONT SURGING SOUTH, CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AND WITH VERY COLD AIR BEHIND.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:
STRONG GUSTS...BLIZZARDS...HAIL...FUNNELS...TORNADOES...SNOW AND SURFACE ICING.

DISCUSSION:
USING A BLEND OF ECMWF, GFS AND UKMO NAE MODEL DATA; REGRESSING HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN IS ALLOWING AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH TO SURGE INTO NW EUROPE FROM THURS 00Z. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR, WITH 850-1000HPA THICKNESSES DOWN TO 126 AND POSSIBLE 504DAM UPPER GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS. JET STREAM IS NW'LY OVERRIDING A SPLIT SURFACE FRONT CREATING POSITIVE VORTICITY AND 3-400M2S2 0-3KM SHEAR THROUGH SCOTLAND, WALES AND ENGLAND 00-12Z, IRELAND AND THE SW 09-15Z. PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN INCREASING AND BECOMING SQUALLY WITH CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT, THEN BRIEF HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARDS ALONG THE SECONDARY FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND WILL ADVECT INLAND AROUND NW AND W SCOTLAND, NORTHERN IRELAND AND WALES AND COASTS OF NW, NE AND SW ENGLAND. WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 40KT ALONG THE FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED CONVECTIVE GUSTS, BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND MID-LEVEL VORTICES LEADING TO POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADOGENESIS. THERMALLY FORCED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND DYNAMICALLY FORCED CONVECTION LIKELY ALONG AND BEHIND IN SHOWER TRAINS, WITH THE ADDED RISK OF HAIL AND LIGHTNING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA

It's going to be an interesting couple of days ahead!  I suspect we all may see some surprises in some shape or form.  Scooting around the various threads on the various forums there's still lots of disagreement and variability banding around as to the specifics of the next several days (other than its going to be pretty darn cold!) - sooooooo, I suspect it's going to be a case of watching the radar and the satellite and getting back to a good old bit of now casting ::)

Latest from RTE....

3 Day Outlook
Thursday night will be very cold everywhere, with moderate to fresh northwesterly winds. Wintry showers will affect many parts of Ulster, Connaught and west Munster, many falling as snow inland and giving accumulations of several centimetres; elsewhere, however, will be dry and mostly clear, apart from some light snow flurries. Despite the wind, ground frost will be sharp to severe, and ice is likely on many surfaces. During Friday, the distribution of wintry showers will be similar, with further accumulations of snow in the north and west; also, parts of the east and south may see more significant snowfall from showers but there will be a lot of dry, bright weather in those areas. Winds will moderate and back westerly on Friday but it will be an extremely cold day with temperatures barely rising above zero degrees Celsius in many places. These bitter, wintry conditions will persist throughout the weekend in all parts of the country. While winds are unlikely to be strong at any stage, there will be variations in wind direction; these will largely determine the location of snowfall from showers being blown onto land from adjacent sea areas. Initially, the north and west will continue taking the brunt but the focus for snowfall is likely to transfer to southern and, eventually, eastern counties as the weekend progresses. The temperature regime will be exceptionally low for mid-December, with overnight frost and ice persisting by day in many areas in addition to random snowfall.

Pretty bleak looking outlook, lets hope these big snow showers get electrified out to sea and push inland on the N-NW winds on fri/sat night, as Mark mentioned theres gonna be a lot of radar watching these next few days!

Had an hour or so of snow this afternoon, it settled on 'water free' surfaces, however the sky has gone clear now so I expect the freeze to start.  On an optimistic note there is some indication there could be showers coming through the Cheshire Gap after midnight, these could lead to some accumulations for me! (hurrah!) - In the mean time it's a night down the pub with the lads tonight, so after a few bevvies I reckon i'll be checking the radar before going to bed ;)

I like this forecast from Met Eireann

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/regional.asp?Prov=Ulster

Thanks for the link Paul.

Just back from Glenshane, drfiting snow up there and lorries spinning on the main road, some are stuck. Things are turning nuts up there. Car crash in the area with bent telegraph poles.

I have 10+cm of level snow in the garden and another heavy shower here currently, almost whiteout conditions at times-amazing.  These showers set to continue for the rest of the day

Updated warning from the Met Office:  http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_warnings.html

Continuous light snow here but only about an inch of slushy accumulation. Main issue is the underlying ice from the rain/sleet showers which fell yesterday evening then froze ... Very slippery & almost no evidence of gritters out on the roads round here.

We have a good 20+ cm here and still snowing.

Best snowfall here in years, 8" now on the road outside my house and even deeper in places, it's been snowing on and off all afternoon, roads are terrible. The main road to Magherafelt is awful, I saw lines sagging down low over the road in Maghera due to the weight of the snow and ice, this is becoming a big event.

That's the 2nd emergency weather warning issued for NI within a year!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-12003757

The power lines here are starting to sag noticably under the weight of the snow and ice - something I have never seen before!

Icicles hanging off the traffic lights and road signs too

You're all doomed  ;D

Woke up this morning to falling snow ,about 2 inches in the garden . Records are being broken in NI I see.  The BBC man in NI  said it's the worst he's seen for 30 years. I hope you've got provisions in. Any quickie snapshots of outside the house will be appreciated. I don't think you can get on the roads or would want to even. Are you able you walk up at the back of your home ,Martin ? From previous photos   I think it's elevated.

Stay safe whatever,don't risk yourselves too much for a photo.

Finally started snowing for me here late last night.   Looks like its been on and off throughout the hours of darkness.  About 4" on the ground this morning and snowing steadily again.  Looking at the radar seems this will continue off and on again throughout the day so no doubt this total will get greater yet. 

Would like to say a big thank you to everyone here aswell...  I've been going on the netweather forum since the cold weather started at the end of november, basically to try and glean that bit of extra weather info.  The vast majority of their (NW) threads are just prophecies of doom and gloom - not for bad (read snowy) weather, just the fact they all seem to get hung up and moaning when the model runs get downgraded.  Problem is they take a 'favourable' model run as gospel, then when the next run comes out and it isn't as good as the last one they're all slitting their wrists.  There's none of that in this thread at all - just concise yet detailed forecast synopsis and folks enjoying posting happy and enjoyable accounts of weather in their regions.  It makes good reading.  For that reason gentlemen I thank you all  :)

As an update from me - been snowing steadily since I got up this morning.  Have a good 8" now which is the most I can remember for me here in a good while.  As you might expect society has ground to a halt - all the side streets are clogged up solid, and even the main roads are covered if tracked.  Looking at the radar there seems to be more to come aswell :)  Amusingly the pet cat is sat on the window sill scowling at the view outside, when the big flakes come down she starts to hiss  :P  Poor thing needs to go outside and do it's business but is a fairweather cat as such is stubbornly holding out atm - i'm sure the weather is going to win on this one.

Some proper winter weather for me for a change  ;D

Nice one Mark glad to hear it.  Similar amount here 8" or a bit more level snow. Spent most of today digging out my drive and the in-laws so not much chance for photography, it took me half hour last night to get the car from the front of the house into the garage-which is about 10 yards, a lot of shoveling and cursing involved!  Temperature outside currently -8 and expected to drop to -15 or lower.   


Thats about all i could manage today John, heres a few

(http://i613.photobucket.com/albums/tt215/paulster78/Weather%202010/ws1for.jpg)

(http://i613.photobucket.com/albums/tt215/paulster78/Weather%202010/ws2for.jpg)

(http://i613.photobucket.com/albums/tt215/paulster78/Weather%202010/ws3for.jpg)

(http://i613.photobucket.com/albums/tt215/paulster78/Weather%202010/ws4for.jpg)

Lovely shots Paul!  :)

Snapped on way  to work lol

(http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n16/Conor433/IMG_4585.jpg)

(http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n16/Conor433/IMG_4581.jpg)

(http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n16/Conor433/IMG_4565.jpg)

Fantastic shots Connor!  Looks lovely :)

In the mean time check out Jo Bastardis vid http://www.accuweather.com/video/713085113001/snowsnow-amd-more-snow-in-europe-and-the-us-also.asp?channel=vbbastaj -looks like we could have snow on the ground till new year!  8)

Check out this one too http://www.accuweather.com/video/714529447001/dreams-of-a-white-christmas-strongly-supported-by-us-model.asp?channel=vbbastaj - about 1/2 way through...

Interesting!  ;)

Great shots . Love the holly berries shot,Paul.

I looked out onto the roadway this morning  at 8.30am from the landing window and a lady happen to cross the road and went straight down in a heap but got up straight away and got to the pavement and lit a fag so she was ok lol. I went out and there's a couple of millimetres of ice sheet on the road-it's lethal. My weather unit was reading -7.5C and I live on an  estate so in the surrounding countryside I bet it was nearer -10C. In Pershore I see it was -19C. These are incredible temperatures in this region.
My wife  went to visit a friend in Oxford on Friday and as she left to come home yesterday ran into a white-out snowstorm and had to abandon the car .Fortunately it's safe on a small  NHS property and she contacted them and they said not to worry. She's still at her friend's house and hopes to make ' a dash' home tomorrow at mid-day. I see temps climbing  back to zero and plus 1C by Wednesday and then down again.

Mark. Our two cats go outside  and run down to the bottom of the garden in the snow to  do their biz. and run back,past the ducks who keep a wary eye on them. The mallards spent 2 hours in one go here yesterday and what they're doing here and across at the pond this morning (I took a large bag  of wholemeal and seed) is to sit on the ground to keep warm or  rather help conserve body heat.

I've been reading Joe Bastardi's forecasts too. he did forecast all this and more to come.

Fantastic shots Paul, your comment about the 10 yards says it all. I like that block of snow sitting on the table  :)

Conor, love those images, the blood temp just drops when I look at them. No 2 is fantastic and really sums up this entire Winter so far in a single image  :)

Thundersnow/thunderstorms last night over E N. Ireland, one guy reported 11 flashes of lightning and 10" of snow from the event. I could see the lightning from Maghera and it looked incredible. Amazing soft rime ice/hoar frost type stuff today outside Maghera, first dramatic forms I have seen so far which was cool. There was a huge icicle hanging below the bridge and the Grillagh river is partially frozen over. It's - 8 or lower now already and it will drop even more later.

Must check out Joe's update forecast - this Winter is already epic!

Looks like JohnC has had a good dumping of snow this morning, and now just started here for me - possibly a couple of hours, so depending on how heavy it is could be fun, especially seeing as the rush hour should have started by the time it's settled on the main routes...  ::)

"Record low" here in Portballintrae -10.9C this morning - has been between -6C and -8C most of the day. Very unusual this close to the coast.

Hi guys,
I have seen some reports on TV about the weather conditions in the UK. Like your reports too. It seems to me that the weather you had there in NI a few days ago was very similar to what I have experienced last January.  :)
This December in Poltava is mild, with not much snow (8cm) and temperatures mostly within range of -8...+2C. The only uncomfortable thing is a big amount of ice (a few occurences of freezing rain and consequtive melting/freezing). My car had also stood still for a few days, covered with a layer of snow/ice which I couldn't easily remove.

-10C again despite considerable cloud cover. No signs whatsoever of any gritting round here, even on main roads, since Thursday.

The snow that I had yesterday has dropped another 2" on top of the 8" that's already there.  Just been out to clear it off the car and drive again - we need to get out to the supermarket later!  Went to the shed to get another bag of grit out (bulk buying in the summer when cheap ;) ) and it is frozen cake solid in one big lump!  Had to bash it apart with the shovel.  A quick check of my unfavbourably placed thermometer reveals -12c, which is as cold as i've seen it!   I may go out and clear some tracks down our road as it's a skid pan, and with everybody thinking the way to drive is at 7000rpm in first gear all they're doing is polishing it off even more.  Still, for now, i've come back in for a warm, a brew and a spot of breakfast...  ::)

Yeah, seen a lot of that, also had by car bumped up the rear end by someone who doesn't appreciate that ABS really isn't effective on polished ice. (Apparently no damage done fortunately) I find the issue with my car is that, having got underway with gentle throttle in 2nd or 3rd, when the speed rises to 10-15 mph the turbo kicks in, one wheel starts spinning & the car turns hard in the direction of the wheel that's lost traction. Takes a lot of care.

Still no sign of gritters ....

grit is useless after -7 and the roads are hard ice so the grit is pointless, sand might give some traction. im usually sitting in 5th about 20mph to get going.

Well I agree that sand or ash would be better but the Carrickfergus rock salt that NI Roads Service uses contains quite a lot of grit.

Not sure where -7 comes from - the eutectic point for sodium chloride & water is -18C = 0F in fact that is what defines the zero point on the Fahrenheit scale. Obviously salt is less effective as the temp falls but this is offset quite a lot by the crystalline structure of ice becoming increasingly amporphous as the temp drops.

The real fun will come when the top surface of the ice melts ... that's why it's so important to get the grit down so there is something to give some traction.

BTW max here today was -4.1C, temp at the moment is a record -11.2C with partly clear sky & patchy fog. Bear in mind I'm only 200 metres from the ocean with a surface temp around +10C at this time of year.

I agree with Brian, it is still effective at -10C or so. But when it comes into -20's (it rarely does here) salt becomes ineffective for sure, and the roads become a real icy horror.

Not so cold at the moment in Poltava, but the roads are involved into continuos cycle: melting - freezing - polishing - melting etc. Conditions are just perfect for it: +3C daytime, -3C at night. I can post an image of this horror tomorrow if anybody wants.
...But you don't know the most interesting fact about it! I'm learning to drive and having my first practice at the city streets at the moment! Funny, isn't it?  ;)

I think most people in Eastern Europe use winter tyres ... us lot in the UK don't get severe weather, of course, so we don't bother with such namby pamby stuff  ;D The repair shops do good business  :-\

- 17.7 C in NI last night and the Met Office say - 20 is possible tonight  :)

Enjoy your lessons Roman, I have been getting alot of practice driving in the snow this last year, I got my test last Nov and was suddenly thrown into an extreme Winter for several months and just learned from then on through my own mistakes. This is year I have been doing day and night driving with great results using the front wheel drive sleigh  :). I find that 2nd and 3rd gear is the best with a slow speed, make no sudden steering motions, don't rev too much, and use the clutch. Starting off in 2nd on ice/snow works wonders....and make sure you have a shovel in the boot  :)

Best of luck with the driving and enjoy the snow.

Mark-yes, we had a couple of inches here but the powdery stuff. I had to walk on a 6 mile round trip to the butchers this morning..I couldn't even open the hatchback door  of my car to get my shopping bags out-I avoid using plastic bags. I tried some warm water but it made no difference so I left it. The buses stopped yesterday and a limited service on main roads today. At least we've got  back -1C at the moment (9.23pm Tuesday)

For sure. Summer ones are equal to suicide in current conditions. Don't know whether my feet have winter rubber, but yesterday I was close to falling and tasting the ice on my face for several times, even at 2 km/h  ;D

Thanks for the advice Martin  ;)
-20C would be cold as for your location close to the ocean, I guess

Yet another 5-6 inches snow on top of the 10 inches from Saturday here in Redditch Worcestershire and still snowing. The local lanes are only passable for tractors and 4X4s even mine struggled in places, its hard to tell where the ditches meet the side of the road. Hopefully some of the kind farmers will clear the route to the horses today to make life a little easier. Just had a call from a friend to say their conservatory roof and part of the timer frame work has collapsed due to the weight of snow.

Another 2-3" so far this morning for me just up the road...  Fun and games!!!  ::)

Big problem these. The 4 wheel drive makes them better at getting moving but the braking & steering is no better ...

I agree with you Brian, they are a great vehicle in these conditions however, when going down hill if you don’t now how to control the vehicle by the means of the gear box you can get in to major problems and loose control and if that occurs you have no way of stopping a 3 ton plus vehicle sliding where it wants to go. I have been amazed at how many 4X4 drivers I’ve seen going way to quickly thinking they are invincible and they are not, the vehicles have the technology for these conditions its the drivers that don’t know how to use it that are at fault. In the are I travel we suffer from flooding so I would be totally lost with without one and I’m sure all the people I have helped during this period of snow, from taking them to the local store or towing them up a hill appreciate a helpful 4X4 driver.

Thanks

Anthony

-13.6C here at the moment. Starting to think a team of huskies is the most sensible mode of transport.

I'm on a 'balmy' -5c this morning  :o   :P

Jo Bastardis latest take on the month and ahead http://www.accuweather.com/video/717615365001/monday-morning-sea-ice-and-coming-euro-thaw-report.asp?channel=vbbastaj - maybe one final plastering of snow before things aren't as cold as they have been...

Cheers,Mark. That made a good read - a thaw. My wife's car is still in Oxford so we're making a dash there in an hour. She hit a blizzard there  on Friday. On Boxing day we're due -10C  (14F for Richard) at least and they  actually mentioned -15C (5F) and Monday the Low from the Atlantic will be pushing in and when that hits the cold air......I think we'll both see significant snowfall, another reason to try and get the car back today.

I think you could well be right.  I clicked on the met office site before to check out their synoptic charts and I have to say they seem a bit wishy washy to me - it looks a ferocious low late on the 25th / early 26th, but then just seems to hang around off the south west coast of iceland - as a result its fronts seem to be more over the NW (Nods at you chaps in NI), stalling there for a while.  Still, whatever happens aint too far away now, so I guess i'll just crack open the cooking sherry and mince pies and sit back and wait and see.   My parents are due to arrive on tuesday for a couple of 3 days, so if it is bad weather again around this period it could well make the journey down for them interesting, I'm certainly going to have to clear the rest of the snow of my drive so dad can get his car on... ::)

Lucky you... Almost all of my snow has melt by its own. It is unusually warm now in Ukraine - temperature keeps near +7C for a few current days (until Sunday). Along with solid cloud cover and permanent fog (visibility mostly below 300m) for 5 days in a row already!  :o  :-\

Hey, what's happening with the ppn coming in over NI at the moment chaps?  Freezing rain?  sleet?  snow?  Notice from the radar image you're covered there.

Weather forecast keeps chopping and changing its mind as to what its going to do yet - rain, sleet, snow...  Guess we'll be back to good old nowcasting as usual!  ::)

Hey Mark, it looks like rain/sleet to me although I'm sure there's snow higher up, I also think this could be turning to freezing rain after dark, I hope so anyway.

Wow, some really bright coloured echoes on the radar for NI atm, mainly rain now?

The icicles are starting to drop from the guttering etc, at my house tonight, some pretty dramatic crashing and smashing sounds.  The pet cat doesn't like it, ears back and a twitching tail...

*Edit*

Just been out for an explore with the Maglite - temperature is up at +1.5c(!!!) - warmest it has been for some significant time.  All the icicles are slowly dripping away and dropping off, I can see clumps of snow dropping off the trees, bushes etc.  Now it's past midnight and there is little or no traffic noise it makes for a really eeiry noise hearing all the cracks, crunches and crashes coming from all around.  I suspect there will be quite a few curtain twitchers tonight looking outside as they can 'hear noises', however possibly not realising it's the thaw they can hear...  Could be a real problem with black ice aswell - looking at the car it has one of those 'fluffy frosts' on it (almost a mini hoar frost), however the road outside our house (we live up an unadopted road) has had dirty snow / slush on it now for over a week, however, at first glance looked to have appeared to have melted, when I put my hand down on it has just turned to sheet ice.  So, tomorrow morning round here could be messy.  We have to go to the supermarket tomorrow to get supplies as my parents come over for 3 days on tuesday, think i'll be doing a check of what the roads / pavements are like before  we get the car out...  For us it has rain/sleet/snow (take your pick depending on forecast) coming through on the early hours of tuesday morning, looking at the +ve temps we have tonight, and it will only get warmer, I suspect it will be rain...  Though, the cold isn't too far away and the BBC Countryfile weekly forecast has high pressure returning come thursday, with grey sky murk and freezing temperatures again.  Will be interesting to see if its warm enough for long enough to actually melt all the snow...   ::)

Temperature is +3c here today, quite misty, however surprisingly little of the snow has melted.  All roads and pavements just about clear, but plenty on the gardens etc.  Wonder if it can hold out till the higher pressure returns later in the week???

OK guys do we prefer -15C and everything working (just about) or +10C and no water supply?

Nightmare journey to ferry Thursday night with very low temps (-15C on car thermo), freezing fog & ice even on the trunk roads. Car was misbehaving due I suspect to waxing of the fuel. Not much warmer the other size of the ditch but the roads much better condition.

Bit of a curates egg that question.  -15C and working or +10C and no water. I'm following your water problems on the news - once again it's not  so much the problem itself that's getting all the news but the lack of information,they tell us about the bottled water  etc. quite quickly and then go ion to the lack of information. When are these companies going to learn to get information out to people. The people at Heathrow knew why the flights were disrupted and accepted it ,to a point, but what they couldn't accept was the lack of information.I'm hearing that  not even politicians in NI can get through to the NIW. On their website they have 'meet the team'.All enquiries go through 'The Team' and this team is actually two people. The Press officer and the marketing & Communications Officer. I've watched the interview with Paddy Cullen,Head of NIW Comms. and behind him in the  not very large Comms room I counted 5 people at the the phones.  he said that all the information is ion the website- they all say that as if everyone has access to the web. The south is suffering too,worse it seems and  I see and that's blamed on a lack of investment  in the industry's  infrastructure . I hope it resolves  for you all sooner rather than later - we had almost 2  weeks of no water in the July floods of 2007 so I know how hard it can be - we don't realise how vulnerable we are until such times as this.- believe those  summer floods  was worse in NI on June 7th so I assume you had supply problems then. I wonder what financial contingency plans the government has  for these events when they're cutting services and projects left,right and centre.

I'm glad of a thaw tbh. I felt sorry for the pond  fish  and wildlife but the fish are alive, however I haven't seen the small ones that were there.

The issue here being that (a) you have to supply your own containers and (b) the nearest supply point is 20 miles away .... how on earth are you supposed to cope if you don't drive?

It's a fiasco, they need to provide standpipes and/or water tankers NOW.

I think I heard that Scotland is sending over a load of bottled water.  Why aren't there water bowsers taken to specific points that are well advertised ?  We had them them in 2007 as an aside, until now I wasn't aware that the NI floods  in 2007 were worse than ours - were there street bowsers in service then ?

I was about to say it  is bad planning but there doesn't appear to have been any planning at all , the freeze went on long enough (and the forecasts told them that anyway) for NIW to realise they would have these problems. I wonder if the CEO, Laurence MacKenzie will resign- seems to be what happens these days, don't tell me he gets a bonus ? and the other head that should roll (that's what's being called for by NI business leaders) is that of the Director of Engineering and Procurement ,Trevor Haslett

It's an unacceptable state of affairs the negative effect the weather has had on life this winter - be it the water situation in NI, the airports etc - there's a long list when you put your mind to it.  I find it amazing that the powers that be are not prepared to act in advance of this weather - if you take this cold spell, we were talking about it starting on this forum a good couple of weeks before it started, along with its severity.  If you take last years winter I think the topic on this forum started in the october, where, again, we discussed with some accuracy the synopsis that occured.  Now, I know we're only 'amatuers' on here, but I know that when temperatures have been down in the minus teens for some significant time that the thaw effect of this is going to be burst pipes, given the fact that on here we said when the thaw was going to begin some time before it did you would have hoped the authorities anticipated the problem and put measures in place prior, not after it happened.  It's a shoddy state of affairs!  >:(

....and there are indications of another cold spell on the way next week, however at this moment in time it's not expected to be severe at the moment. The models do hint at decent snowfalls though....one to watch again.

Just a few snaps from the recent cold spell!

(http://i54.tinypic.com/2w71geu.jpg)

(http://i56.tinypic.com/104j5i0.jpg)

sorry for the lack of them, spent half the time getting cars unstuck!!

Fine images Scott!  :)

Shivering images Scott, the first sends a chill down my spine, I'm sure it won't be long before such scenes return.

I hope not; haven't got the water supply back after the last lot yet.

The public services round here never cease to amaze me; no gritting anywhere locally for 10 days when there was snow & ice on the roads but now the temp isn't falling below +5C they're being gritted twice daily. Probably using up the grit they claimed to have spread when the weather was bad.

Bad news about the water Brian, that's not good  >:(

It's curious the methedology they use for gritting, i've noticed them gritting round here now the temperature hasn't fallen below freezing for several days also.  Strange...  :-\

I've heard it said that the bottled water being sent to NI from Scotland isn't actually needed, but given the roasting the management of NI Water are currently getting they felt politically incapable of turning it down!!

Hmmm. Bear in mind that if the water supply is interrupted it isn't safe to drink without boiling for 14 days so I really think we should be being supplied with bottled water for drinking for a couple of weeks.

My water came back on this afternoon. Of course it's discoloured & full of air bubbles but OK to get a much needed bath & wash some clothes.

The real issue here is the customer service response - it was this morning before I got someone who actually appeared to know more than was on the web site (incomplete and completely inaccurate) - from their response & subsequent developments I think they had actually turned off the whole supply for Portballintrae & forgotten about it ...