Astronomy, Photography and Weather

Think it's about time to begin a thread on the convective potential across Ireland and N. Ireland from Sat May 16th to Thurs May 21st. The GFS charts have been showing instability for each day during this period. No doubt some of this will be down graded closer to the time, however for the time being it's worth monitoring. Sat evening around 15.00 is showing good CAPE and LI for NI, 12.00 in the same day for central Ireland also. Here's the 6z chart from Netweather.

(http://i43.tinypic.com/154g1i0.png)

Assuming we can get the Sun to break out (which may or may not be a problem) then solar heating should pep up some convective cells/showers of rain and hail/ and perhaps t-storms somewhere. The tornado param is also over NI during the same period. Will wait and see what the experts say after 12z update tonight.

ESTOFEX are going with nothing for Sat which is strange, don't trust them anyway.

RTE forecast tonight gave thundery activity for Ireland well into the middle of next week. Will see what the forecast says in the morning.

(http://i43.tinypic.com/2zpnrmd.png)

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-05-16 07:22:00
Valid: 2009-05-15 23:00:00 - 2009-05-16 22:59:00

Regions Affected
Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland (including Wales, much of England and southern Scotland)

Synopsis
As a cold front moves eastwards across the UK during Saturday, an unstable airmass is left in its wake. Numerous showers are expected to affect many western parts of the UK, with a risk of hail and thunder. Conditions over Northern Ireland and Ireland are most favourable for the development of thundery showers, but thunder and lightning cannot be ruled out in the WATCH region. Gusty winds and hail are likely to accompany many showers. There exists a threat of the showers turning increasingly thundery in nature across northern England during the evening, but this is still uncertain and will require careful monitoring during Saturday. Showers will continue across many western areas in particular until the end of the forecast period.

Netweather forecast...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Ok, still waiting for the official forecasts to come out but Monday looks to be the day for N. Ireland. CAPE between 500-600 and LI of -3 (assuming it isn't downgraded in the morning) which should produce some intense showers and t-storm potential. Instability is present straight from the word go with LI at 0 at 09.00. All of NI looks to be in business by the afternoon and on into the evening. Let's hope for some strong solar heating for convective action. There's more chances on Tues, with the unsettled and potentially thundery set-up for much of the week.

(http://i42.tinypic.com/an1wf7.png)

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-05-17 22:26:00
Valid: 2009-05-17 23:00:00 - 2009-05-18 22:59:00

Regions Affected
Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northwest & Northeast England (all of the UK is included in the WATCH)

Synopsis
An unstable airmass continues to affect much of the UK during Monday. Showers will affect many western coasts from the very beginning of this forecast period, but they are forecast to become increasingly heavy, frequent and widespread, particularly in northern UK during Monday. Thunderstorms are also likely to develop in response to daytime heating, especially across Scotland, Northern Ireland, Ireland and Northern England. The showers will be heavy in most places, but across England and Wales strong and gusty winds will ensure that the showers only last a short period, whilst across Scotland and Northern Ireland lighter winds could give rise to local flooding due to persistent torrential downpours in places. Hail and gusty winds are likely to accompany many showers. The showers should rapidly decrease in coverage around or soon after sunset.

Sferics SW of Lough Neagh. Too far away from me but the sky to the S and SE of Slieve Gallion is an evil dark blue colour clustered with convection. Looks to be a big storm in that direction!.

More lightning from that storm to the SE of Lough Neagh and near the E coast of NI. John, you must have seen this one passing through?

I was out at the time so no camera, however I did see a couple of good flashes but didn't hear much thunder, quite a bit of rain though.

Thanks for the info John. Belfast harbour reporting thunder. That's probably it for the day now until Tues.

(http://i40.tinypic.com/epq6vt.png)

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-05-18 21:40:00
Valid: 2009-05-19 00:00:00 - 2009-05-19 23:59:00

Regions Affected
Northern Ireland & Ireland (the whole of the UK is included in the WATCH region)

Synopsis
An unstable airmass continues to affect the United Kingdom during Tuesday, as a result of Low Pressure situated
to the northwest of Scotland at noon Tuesday. Showers are expected to be widespread across the whole of the united Kingdom during the morning in particular, and many are likely to be heavy and locally torrential. Gradually through the day, the showers will ease in number across southern England, but at the same time, as a result of daytime heating in particular, some of the showers may turn thundery in nature, most likely across the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Conditions are not thought to be favourable for clusters, and so any storms that do develop are likely to be isolated and perhaps short-lived. Hail and gusty winds may accompany many showers. Whilst Eire is the main area of interest, some additional instability is suggested to develop over Wales/West Midlands during the morning, which may allow isolated thunderstorms to develop here, which would then head northeastwards into Yorkshire and Lincolnshire during the late afternoon, before heading off into the North Sea during the evening. However, this remains uncertain and will need careful monitoring during the day. Any showers that do develop are expected to reduce in coverage very rapidly during the evening, with the exception of Ireland where some thunderstorms may persist for a while during the evening.

Everything seemed so good here today, plenty of warm sunshine which got the convection going during the afternoon. Lots of very black clouds around, forming a shelf-type structure with an obvious area of rotating scud, funnel clouds seemed possible several times despite the lack of wind shear. This was followed by sharp showers and plenty of congestus, several cbs, some mammatus and even whale's mouth type structure not associated with a shelf. By the the late afternoon it was show over, just grey outflowy cloud and drizzle. A real let down. The salt was rubbed in the wound when I retured home and seen the t-storms which formed below Lough Neagh again. I heard reports of thunder/lightning, torrential rain and flooding. Everything seemed to miss here again. The highlight though was a monster cell I spotted at 17.00 on the S horizon to the E of Slieve Gallion with a huge solid white anvil, it looked to be doing the business!!, impressive beast. Round 3 on Wed.

Here's the convective forecast for Ireland & Uk - Wed. Risk map is on the link.

http://www.southweatherforum.com/storm-forecast-wednesday-20th-may-2009-t564.html

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-05-19 20:32:00
Valid: 2009-05-20 00:00:00 - 2009-05-20 23:59:00

Regions Affected
Northern & Eastern Scotland, Central Belt of Scotland, Northern Ireland, much of Ireland, West & East Midlands, East & South Wales and the West Country (all of the UK, excluding the Southeast, is included in the WATCH)

Synopsis
A developing area of LOW pressure approaches southern Ireland during the course of Wednesday morning. Scattered showers, some heavy, are forecast to develop in many parts of western, central and northern UK. The areas most likely to be affected are those highlighted in the THUNDERSTORM regions on the map. Hail, gusty winds and occasional lightning can be expected from many of the showers. Convergence lines may develop showers in distinct SW-NE orientated lines, particularly from the Severn Estuary to The Wash. Northern Ireland/Ireland are most favourable for thunderstorm development, but thunderstorms cannot be ruled out elsewhere due to reasonable conditions. Lighter winds will ensure any showers/storms are slow moving and so local flooding is a risk from torrential, slow-moving downpours. Whilst most showers will rapidly decrease in coverage during the evening, showery outbreaks of rain will continue to affect parts of Wales and northern England until the end of the forecast period, with a risk of thunder.

Latest GFS update looks great. By the afternoon and early evening there's 600 CAPE for N. Ireland with the LI at -2. The region around, and S of Lough Neagh is -3. Plenty of solar heating too. Could be another day of t-storms for some.

Met Office warning for Co. Down and Antrim

Scattered heavy thundery downpours will develop this afternoon and last into this evening. These may give localised falls of 15-20mm within a 3 hour period. The public are advised to take extra care and refer to 'Traffic Watch (NI)' for further advice on road conditions.

Issued at: 1143 Wed 20 May

guys just had a great thunderstorm pass over Newtownabbey. Have heard reports of very large hail. Had lots of cgs very close by. However I wasnt sure how to capture any on camera. I did however get alot of pics of the storm in general and will post them later.

Storm moving in direction of Larne.

Great stuff Stuart, and thanks for the report!.

Radar has intensified below Lough Neagh again as well. Nothing of signifigance further W and N though.

At least one storm crossing the Irish Sea. Maybe Paul has seen it. Strong radar echoes/poss storms in SE N. Ireland moving NE.

All quite on the western front...again!

Today's lightning so far...

(http://i40.tinypic.com/2znq34k.gif)

John reporting thunder from Maghaberry.

Hi folks, intense rain, sizeable hail and some lovely lightning over the belfast area today! constantly nipping outside of work to get a look, first decent storm ive seen in ages, was well worth the wait!!!

Just back from a driving lesson and saw a few c gs over Glengormley. This really has been a great day down here.

Here are some pics I took earlier.

The storm was moving from right to left in the pic.

(http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p306/stu2588/firstlightstorm200912.jpg)

(http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p306/stu2588/lightstorm2009123.jpg)

This last one was taken just before there was a really bright cg that came down somewhere behind that house.

(http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p306/stu2588/firstlightningstorm2009.jpg)

It almost looks a greeny colour. There was also alot of hail reported from the direction of the storm. My house must have been right on the edge of it as we didnt even get a drop of rain.

Not done much here, threatening cloud all afternoon but only a couple of very light showers.

Those are great Stuart!, nice angry structure. Thanks for sharing those images. I'm glad you had a good day of action. Hopefully more on Thurs.

Thunder, Maghera, after 20.00.

Outlook for Thurs...

(http://i39.tinypic.com/11gk1dw.png)

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-05-20 20:05:00
Valid: 2009-05-21 00:00:00 - 2009-05-21 23:59:00

Regions Affected
Northern Ireland, East Midlands, Yorkshire, counties bordering The Wash and Northern, Eastern & Southern Scotland (all of the UK, excluding the south coast, is included in the WATCH region)

Synopsis
Showers are expected to develop widely across Northern Ireland, Scotland, and central & northern England during Thursday, in response to daytime heating. Thunderstorms are also likely to develop - the most favoured region based on current data is northeast Scotland, where storms may cluster during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms are also forecast across parts of Northern Ireland, eastern parts of Ireland and also perhaps eastern parts of England. Surface based storms may develop, which may produce a funnel or weak tornado. Hail and gusty winds are likely to accompany many of the showers, and torrential downpours combined with light winds may result with local flooding due to the persistence of the showers. Showers and storms are forecast to rapidly decrease in coverage during the evening, although they may persist for some time across eastern Scotland in particular during the evening.

Connla Young just sent me over an image of a possible funnel cloud captured at 7pm from Co. Antrim in the direction of Toome which formed at the rear of a strong shower.

Nice images there. Had a good afternoon here as well, one big thunder storm produced at least 6 good sparks but the rain and hail was something different. At teatime I had another great big shower and when it passed I had this beautie of a double rainbow. My brother was about 1.5 miles away and rang me as soon as he got home to inform me that he had seen a hint of a third bow, which I think might be rare. The rainbow image was taken with a new fisheye conversion lens I have acquired, but to see me out under a brolly taking images would have been a picture in intself. The neighbors must think I've flipped ;D
(http://i44.tinypic.com/k9su8p.jpg)
The floods from the thunder storm taken through the front window.
(http://i39.tinypic.com/14nffjk.jpg)

Those are great. Keep them comming. Will be interesting to see how today goes. Temp in my back garden this morning at 830am was just a shade over 14.5C. Hopefully that will provide some good solar heating.

Great shots Stuart & John!!!!

John, The fisheye really shows of the rainbow...  ;D

Lovely shots John, That's a great fish eye. Those three bows are extremely rare!!

Warning out from Met Office for Co. Antrim and Co. Down AGAIN...

Scattered heavy thundery downpours will develop again this afternoon, lasting into early evening. The showers could give localised accumulations of 15mm in a 3 hour period.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to Traffic Watch (NI) for further advice on road conditions.

Issued at: 1028 Thu 21 May

Just had a messy gust front pass through here delivering an intense hail storm around 12.30, lasted about 10 min's. Nasty one!

Convection is not great by any means though. Anvils are mushy with little energy at the moment.

Thanks guy's!

I had something similar here Martin but didn't even take a shot of it, it was hopeless! There's nothing special here so far.

I took some video of it but that was the best thing I've seen today. It's hopeless here too, cells are too weak, anvils are wispy, there's a cap stopping vertical development and there's not enough solar heating. The odd rumble can't be ruled out, nor could a funnel, but I think it's a no show for most today, very disappointing. There was lightning near the NE coast earlier though...nothing since. Bust forecast!

Spoke to soon, John's got thunder/lightning at Maghaberry.

Yea, just a couple of good flashes with the thunder almost at once, quite good hail as well, it's moving east at the minute towards Belfast.

Thanks for the text John, I can see that storm on the radar, it had a red core.

Really dark clouds here, gust fronts with turbulent motions, showers falling from them but they are not intense enough for thunder.

Some great shots here - I didn't get any photos yesterday as I was rushing around from one meeting to another, one of which was during a particularly good thunderstorm in Glengormley. Made up for it today with a trip to the Loughshore in Antrim at lunchtime - this panorama taken approx 1245 looking NW, so Martin, this is probably your hailstorm I'm looking at here!

http://paulni.co.uk/images/loughshorepan090521.jpg

Zoom in, pan across....

That is one great shot! That thunderstorm you mentioned yesterday in Glengormley was great. I managed to follow a decent anvil towards Larne this afternoon. No lightning but alot of hail and a couple of pics that I will post up shortly.

didnt get much action over belfast today, back in lisburn at the minute and can see a lovely cb, quite a bit in the distance but could still see it bubbling up into a nice anvil which is surprising for this time of the evening! wouldnt be surprised if there was a spark or 2 from it!

That's a beauty Paul and very nice structure too!. Thanks for sharing that one.

Seen some spectacular scenes this evening. I thought the convective activity would have died by this time..but not so!. From Maghera there where stunning updraught towers over the Sperrins of huge size and solid structure. These put me on the alert. My Mum and I decided to go to Ballyronan Marina on the NW shore of Lough Neagh to take our Dog out for a walk. As we arrived we could see a nasty looking cell which had crossed the Lough and was now nearing the E shore with precip falling below. The rear of this cell had nice structure but with messy scud and cu rags/inflow cu. Some time after 20.00 BST both of us observed what looked to be a beefy funnel cloud which was hiding within the scudy mess. It was thick, tubular like a bloated worm with a nice bend downwards towards the Lough, it lasted for about 5 min's then retreated into the clouds again. I have images which I have yet to take off the camera but they are extremely poor because they were hand held with a zoom lens in dark conditions. So focus issues etc will kill the images some what.

After this we could see great convective updraughts catching the low light of the Sun with a fantastic primary and secondary rainbow against the flanks of intense coloured clouds reflecting on the water. On the way home after 21.00 there was a huge cell which dominated the sky. The belly of this thing was black with precip curtains, but below it was a huge solid black wedge reaching down to the ground. It looked like a huge tornado, our view was obstructed by houses and trees while on the road but eventually we pulled up when we got a clear spot. It turned out to be a large updraught tower at the flank of the cell, possibly even with a wall cloud, but I can tell you, that was the most frightening looking sight I have ever seen to date!!!. I thought I was in the US for a time, I'm sure everyone on the road saw that too and were amazed. So, if any tornado reports come in from NI this evening from members of the public then you know it wasn't a vortex, or at least it wasn't on the ground when I seen it. Have some images and video taken under poor conds which don't do justice to the scene at all. What an evening of stunning and scary clouds, mother nature was really showing off!