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Next Week's weather

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Paul
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« on: July 25, 2008, 04:50:15 pm »

Looking at the Met Office prospects for the early part of next week - it seems like Good News/Bad News - nice clear skies but hazing over at night, so I hope they've got that bit wrong!
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« Reply #1 on: July 25, 2008, 08:30:53 pm »

Yip, difficult to chance our arm with this one at this early stage. Looks to be unsettled next week but as long as August 1st is clear in the morning then I'm happy enough  Smiley
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« Reply #2 on: July 25, 2008, 08:51:08 pm »

That's for the partial eclispe isn't it?
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Paul
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« Reply #3 on: July 25, 2008, 09:01:06 pm »

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That's for the partial eclispe isn't it?
Yeah ... that's the important one. But it would be nice to get the odd transparent night now the twilight's less of a problem & the Moon is getting out of the way.
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« Reply #4 on: July 25, 2008, 09:02:16 pm »

Yes, that's for the partial eclipse. Maybe the weather Gods will keep it clear for the Perseids and lunar eclipse at mid and late month also.  Smiley
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« Reply #5 on: July 26, 2008, 12:22:40 pm »

Just my luck! I'm back to work on Monday and it might brighten up!! Have been off since 9th and the weather hasn't been the best.  Sad  Yes!  all being well the weather will be good for the 1st Aug.  Roll Eyes
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« Reply #6 on: July 26, 2008, 01:23:23 pm »

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Just my luck! I'm back to work on Monday and it might brighten up!! Have been off since 9th and the weather hasn't been the best.
Ah, so it's your fault, is it?

Really horrid last night with heavy thundery rain but no actual thunder. Not too bad here today - reasonable Sun with the breeze off the sea, so fresher & more comfortable than it has been for a while. Classic conditions for stratocumulus blight after dark, though.
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Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #7 on: July 26, 2008, 01:50:59 pm »

Here's the weekly forecast from the UKWeatherworld...

ISSUED Saturday 26th July 1145Z

WARNINGS OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER: Low-moderate risk of heavy thundery rain /thunderstorms in the southwest Monday with localised flooding     
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WEEKLY SUMMARY

A rather warm week in the south and east, though less so in the west with low pressure west of Ireland and high pressure fairly stationary over Scandinavia and to the north of the UK. Some thundery showers about at times in places especially in the south west and west as small low pressure areas develop but short lived areas of high pressure too across England at times too; generally though a light SE'ly flow across many areas but generally cooler fresher weather following by the weekend for many western and central parts, though it may not reach the east.   

DAY BY DAY OUTLOOK

Monday 28th sees a mild or muggy and fairly cloudy night in most areas with a little area of low pressure to the SW. Some clear periods in the north and east though. A bright sunny start for many areas with good sunny spells but some showers in the north initially and as more cloud bubbles up in the late morning a risk of heavy thundery showers in England and Wales and S Scotland developing by early afternoon. The south west will see some heavy thundery rain move in by mid afternoon and this could give localised flooding in places as it moves NW into S Wales too. There'll be some showers continuing in central and eastern parts into the evening and overnight too, possibly thundery. Staying drier in the far north though rather cloudier. Temperatures very warm or hot across England at 25-28C though more like 17-20C generally in the cloudier, wetter parts where it'll be very humid.   

Tuesday 29th will see the area of showers or heavy showery rain area continue across Eastern and NE England and up into central and Eastern Scotland and the heavier rain may affect N Ireland too as it works away from W Wales. It may well be thundery in nature in places too. A very muggy night almost everywhere in the UK, especially E Anglia and SW England and near the southern coasts. A showery cloudy day generally in Scotland and the east as well as the SW and Wales with further showers breaking out, maybe thundery still. A clearer drier area likely across southern and SE parts though still a fair amount of cloud around so only hazy sunshine. A warm day again but nearer average at 23-24C, perhaps 25C in the SE and east locally and more like 18-21C in the north and NW.   

Wednesday 30th will see a mainly light S'ly flow with high pressure to the east and low pressure still out to the west of Ireland.Any showery rain in the north and west should die out then a drier night for most with some mist and low cloud developing inland especially over hills overnight and initially in the morning though breaking slowly. A reasonably mild night in the SW cooler elsewhere. By morning dry generally everywhere but later some heavier showery bursts may start to develop in the west and become more widespread across N Ireland, west and central Wales, NW England and the Pennines, though they should be fairly well scattered but they still be locally thundery, persisting into the evening. They could move further north into southern and central Scotland by evening and overnight, still heavy and thundery in places. Sunny periods continuing in the east, SE and many southern counties as well as the NE of England and E Scotland. Temperatures generally a warm humid 24-25C, perhaps up to 26-27C in the central southern parts and the SE and E Anglia locally mainly across urban areas. 

Thursday 31st sees July end up warm still with the light S'ly flow continuing with high pressure moving more north east over Scandinavia and an area of low pressure still to the west and fronts moving up from the south. A fairly clear night inland though some low cloud and mistiness is likely in places. Temperatures may not fall below 17C again in the south. A sunny start generally for most central, northern and eastern parts though perhaps always cloudier in the west with the risk of some  showers from the word go. North eastern England and much of Scotland staying drier but the south and SW probably seeing more in the way of thundery showery rain develop through the morning and through the afternoon. This band of more persistent thundery showers may well spread north into Wales and right across central parts of England later. Temperatures in most parts 23-25C perhaps 26C in urban SE 'rn parts and East Anglia before the thundery showers arrive or break out but more like 18-21C nearer western coasts and N Ireland and W Scotland

Friday 1st August probably most likely sees a low pressure area and fronts swing north east across the west overnight and early morning then into other northern parts later on. Again a risk of some thundery outbreaks locally. A very humid night in the east and SE where temperatures may not fall below 17C overnight, less humid in the north and west. The areas of showery rain will move across Scotland , central and north eastern England by afternoon and a slightly fresher airmass move into the west but with low pressure still close to the west of  N Ireland more showers never far away. The south and SE staying mainly dry and fairly sunny though a lot of cloud here too at times. A warm day again in the east and SE, temperatures up to 23-25C here but more like 16-20C in other areas, and feeling notably cooler and fresher.

Saturday 2nd & Sunday 3rd is still quite uncertain as regards detail, but it looks like a SWly flow will dominate with perhaps low pressure and some fronts affecting most south west and western parts at times. Further low pressure may swing up from France on Sunday bring more huimid weather and furher showery rain , possibly thundery again. Saturday does currently look like it'll be fairly cloudy after a misty start for many areas in the north and west with a few sunny periods but some showery rain about. These showery outbreaks of rain may affect central and southern parts too but overall further east a fair amount of hazy sunshine around though some showers likely developing here by the afternoon. A cooler night in the west with some mist patches forming but less so in the south and south east where it'll likely stay quite mild. Sunday then may well see it stay more settled in the north with sunny periods probably but perhaps still a few showers developing  but wetter weather spreading up from the SW later across the SW and south but confidence is very low at present. Temperatures generally a warmish 22-23C in the south on Saturday, more like a cooler 15-19C in the north; more like 19-22C here on Sunday but up to 24-26C again in the east and SE.   
FEATURES TO MONITOR THIS WEEK

*General risk of heavy thundery showers with local strong gusts and possibly local hail affecting many areas but more especially inland central and western parts through the week

*Risk of some sea fog on western and south western coasts & hills almost any time but especially midweek

*Risk of a more prolonged period when an area (or areas) of thunderstorms or heavy thundery rain with localised flash flooding affecting SW England (and possibly S and W Wales) on Monday and in fact across almost any part of the UK during the week really (lowest risk in N Scotland) but confidence is low and details currently unclear.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE is moderate becoming low-moderate

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Steveo74
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« Reply #8 on: July 26, 2008, 02:02:22 pm »

Ah, so it's your fault, is it?   HA HA HA Good one Brian!  Ok hands up it's all my fault, sorry guys... Grin
All I'm getting is overcast, dull, humid & featureless!!! It's driving me mad  Tongue However today is ok.
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Roman White
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« Reply #9 on: July 26, 2008, 02:12:54 pm »

Here's the weekly forecast from the UKWeatherworld...
ISSUED Saturday 26th July 1145Z
 
Looks not very good.

A forecast for Poltava on Aug.01 is +22C, partly cloudy, but it could change into better or into worse. However there is very low chance of totally cloudy weather.

I have seen the forecast for Siberia - it also looks good: +20...+30C and mostly clear. It is very good for those people, who went to Siberia to watch the total phase.
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« Reply #10 on: July 26, 2008, 07:31:12 pm »

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Here's the weekly forecast from the UKWeatherworld...
...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE is moderate becoming low-moderate
Here's hoping they got it wrong!

Still recovering from Thurs night - got a wee bit of very hazy clearish sky, was out all night trying to observe in shirt sleeves (15C, too warm for a jacket) & got eaten by midges Angry Too warm to sleep, went for long walk approx. 8 miles round Giants Causeway and was back home at 0610 BST! Too warm to sleep last night, either. A wee bit cooler today so I've been napping hoping for predicted clear sky overnight but it looks very unlikely at the moment.
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« Reply #11 on: July 27, 2008, 10:39:39 am »

I have viewed the Meteoblue forecast for Aug.01 (9h UT). Bad news, I can say.
Cloudy and rainy weather over all of British Islands  Cry , with +14...+19C in Ireland, +12...+20C in Scotland and +16...+27 in England&Wales. However some gaps in the clouds could arrive in Ireland.  Undecided
Absolutely different weather in Ukraine - totally clear with +18...+31C.  Smiley
Have a look on the map:

If the forecast doesn't change, there could be a chance of partly cloudy weather in the SW coast of Ireland. Very unfortunate for British Isles. But most of the Europe will have a clear weather.

Totality pass forecast:
Nadym +13C, cloudy, rain
Nizhnevartovsk +15C, partly cloudy, rain
Novosibirsk +25C, partly cloudy, rain
Barnaul +26C, partly cloudy, rain
Biysk +29C, partly cloudy, rain



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martinastro
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« Reply #12 on: July 27, 2008, 12:56:46 pm »

I'm not getting the rope out just yet. For those in Ireland/N. ireland it will very much depend on the timing of the frontal passage. It could break up during the early hours of the morning and present us with clear gaps after sunrise. I'm only hopecasting though  Smiley. Better to wait until later in the week for an update on the models. Looks like we are going to be pulling teeth to see this one. In the other hand Roman things look very good for your location!!  Smiley
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