THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...
Synopsis
There is an Upper level low north of Greece and turkey, a high pressure over Scandinavia and a long wave trough to the west of Ireland. Some weak lobes of vorticity cycle around the long wave trough with one heading towards northern France and another crossing Wales and heading towards Ireland. A weak upper level trough stretches from the vorticity lobe over Wales south eastwards.
WALES, CENTRAL + NW ENGLAND, S SCOTLAND 1200Z – 2100Z...
Warm moist air will move up across the UK ahead of the trough and may destabilise producing a line of convective storms which will intensify and move north through the day. Low level convergence in a line from the wash to south west Scotland may intensify any storms that form and create a wind field conducive to the formation of weak convergence type tornadoes. Forecast high cloud tops increase the risk of electrical activity although a lack of dry air aloft will tend to put a limit on this. Doubts about the amount of moisture, lack of deep layer shear and dry air aloft mean the risk of severe weather probably does not warrant a warning. Net weather will however be monitoring the situation to assess where to upgrade the risk especially towards North West England late in the afternoon.
S ENGLAND 1500Z – 2400Z...
Satellite pictures show some storms to the west of northern France with a moderate jet powering in behind. There is a risk that these storms will skirt or cross parts of southern England however they seem unlikely to pose much of a severe weather threat at this point.
From Netweather.
