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Thunderstorm Outlook - Thurs 24th

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martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« on: July 24, 2008, 09:22:02 am »

From Tony Gilbert...

8.20am Thurs

Slight Risk of General Tstorms 12Z-18Z NW Ireland Thurs 24th July 08

Whilst the UK remains under strong ridging through Thurs. West Ireland on the other hand shows potential to regain cyclonic flow as a small low develops SW of Ireland PM today. GFS are increasing the suggestion for stronger CAPE's as a very moist low level flow of moisture feeds in from the west during this period. With only weak upper troughing the lapse rates will need direct influence from solar heating and today's outcome this will be paramount. ie, some clear sky's necessary.

With 35 kt shear mid levels and rather weak winds at surface any convection has the potential to be rather sharp (marginally sheared) with the risk of small hail. Any convergence currently looks misaligned to any surface troughing. 06Z run will need to be assessed to calculate the risk of waterspout/ tornado development (Donegal Bay Region) . However at this point I do not see the potential.

Negative indices are weak upper PVA support. Though sufficient CAPE should overcome this!




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