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Weekly Forecast (UK) Jan 5th-11th

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Author Topic: Weekly Forecast (UK) Jan 5th-11th  (Read 673 times)
martinastro
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« on: January 03, 2009, 03:33:39 am »

WEEKLY FORECAST FOR Monday 5th January -Sunday 11th January 2009

ISSUED Friday 2nd January 1900Z

WARNINGS OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER: 

*Severe penetrating frosts by night inland midweek, especially across northern, central and southern England & east Wales, accompanied locally by freezing fog & rime     

WEEKLY SUMMARY

A generally dry settled period through the following week with little precipatation anywhere, though mist, low cloud and frosts, often severe around at night. However the extreme north and west becoming cloudier and more unsettled as some rain pushes in from the west, as winds freshen from the southwest, by the end of the following weekend. It'll stay cold until then with temperatures well below average in most parts especially at night but tending to become milder in the west & north by the weekend. 

DAY BY DAY OUTLOOK   

Monday 5th will see high pressure over N England and a chilly easterly breeze in the far south. A mainly clear frosty start for most, though with some low cloud over N ireland & W Scotland, with some patchy light sleet, rain or drizzle about. A few fog patches in central and Northern England as well as S Scotland initially too but these should slowly thin out by day. Sunny periods by day in most other parts, fresh E winds in the far south east and Channel Isles. A few places will have an ice day (temperatures not rising above freezing) and there will soon be a moderate to severe frost setting in again inland across Wales, England and central and S Scotland by evening. NW Scotland and N Ireland may stay cloudier with some sleety rain about still. Temperatures generally a very cold -1 to +2C everywhere, maybe only -4 to -2C in the Highlands, esp if freezing fog persists, though more like 4-6C in the far SW and NW.

Tuesday 6th will see high pressure across central England and light winds everywhere . Freezing fog & mist patches at first in central areas,  low cloud more likely in the far NW where some sleet may still occur. The fog and mist patches may also lift into low cloud before dispersing to give sunny periods near coasts but inland freezing mist and fog will generally persist and thicken again later especially in central England and Southern Scotland. Local snow flurries around in the foggy areas. Another severe frost setting in as it goes dark with freezing mist and fog patches reforming. Well below average temperatures for most parts at -3C to 0C though eastern and southern coasts will reach 1-3C for a time. Generally rather nearer average at 5-6C in NW Scotland and along southwest coasts.

Wednesday 7th will see the high pressure move away south east but another area develop to the north over Scotland and a ridge between them. Low pressure to the west of Ireland will keep a slow moving weak front across N Ireland, giving some light sleet at times.  Initially a lot of low cloud or mist and freezing fog patches about, with a notably severe frost especially in central areas of England where temperatures may fall locally to -10C and again some local snow flurries about but mainly too cloudy in the SW and far NW along with N Ireland. Some sunny periods developing inland in most southern, central, northern and eastern parts but temperatures mostly not rising above freezing even in the sunshine. Frost and fog patches may well develop again inland though during the evening as the severe frost returns. A very cold day inland with temperatures about -4C to -1C generally, but more like 1C near coasts and the far south and the coastal SW and far NW seeing 3-5C.   

Thursday 8th could see the high pressure sink south or SE across the UK . A generally clear night with patchy freezing fog again inland across E Wales, central England and S Scotland. Some low cloud and some hill fog about in the far north west, persisting by day. The freezing fog patches may again be slow to clear inland all day giving local flurries but sunny periods though, if it does. Another severe frost developing in the south by evening. Temperatures very cold in most inland areas of England and E Wales at just -3C to -1C though milder around coasts at 1-3C and up to 5C in the far west and SW. 

Friday 9th, seems likely to see high pressure over the Uk again, many inland areas likely starting with some freezing mist and fog patches, after an exceptionally severe frost, -8C in places, possibly locally down to -11C. The fog slow clearing to give bright periods or sunny spells at times. Winds freshening later in the NW with cloud increasing and perhaps some rain here by evening. Temperatures reaching -2C to 1C but a little milder around coasts and down in the SW and Scottish NW'ern areas at 2-4C though the far SW and NW may reach 6-7C.

Saturday 10th and Sunday 11th are still rather uncertain as regards detail, but it looks like somewhat milder air will work slowly east across most western areas with high pressure still more dominant to the SE. Perhaps some frost and patchy mist by night in the far SE and east, the mist mainly in south eastern areas though.. The north west could see low pressure fairly close by Sunday giving some rain at times, heavy on upslopes, especially on Sunday with a lot of low cloud about especially over central and northern hills. Sunday looks likely to see a murky start too in central parts and the south too with a lot of low cloud about and maybe some patchy rain or hill sleet. It could become clearer by Sunday in the NW with blustery showers, some heavy and wintry over Scottish Highland hills later. Temperatures quite mild on both Saturday & Sunday in the north and west at 6-9C generally, though more like 4-5C in the northeast & east of England and in the south east around 3-4C.

FEATURES TO MONITOR THIS WEEK

*Severe frosts in prone inland areas around midweek period

*A lot of low cloud over hills with hill fog almost anywhere in western Scotland, western England, N ireland and W Wales later in the week 

*Freezing fog patches away from coasts across S and central Scotland, England & E Wales

*Risk of some snow flurries in places through the week especially where freezing fog persists

*Risk of gales in the far NW later in the w/e

FORECAST CONFIDENCE is moderate -high but moderate by Thursday onwards

Dave Wiseman
UKww Executive/C & M Manager/Warnings team
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jjb
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« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2009, 09:27:16 am »

Put the thermals on! thanks for posting it Martin.

jonathan
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Roman White
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« Reply #2 on: January 03, 2009, 10:40:41 am »

That is cold?!  Wink I observed evening planets yesterday at -11C, and now, at noon, when the Sun shines and the temp. rises to -7C I call it warm.  Grin

The forecast looked very cold when I saw frosts in tropics (yesterday). Down to -5C in Syrian desert, mild frosts at night in Libya, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia.
 Grin Not always there is +40C
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« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2009, 12:19:31 pm »

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That is cold?!  Wink
No, it's just that the UK isn't used to anything extreme - a few flakes of snow paralyses the transport system, so does a warm day if the sun is hot enough to buckle the railway lines or melt the tarmac (which weren't designed to cope with temps over 30C). Moderate rain causes flooding, and a dry spell more than a few days long empties reservoirs .... I think we have it too easy!
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martinastro
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« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2009, 01:54:02 pm »

Temps of -7 to -10 degrees C are actually expected for parts of the UK on Mon and Tues so that's considered severe. Mix in slow moving weak fronts trying to do their thing dropping rain on already freezing roads and you can see why there is a severe forecast. Freezing rain and rime will be forming somewhere over the UK early next week. Southern parts of Brtain will be getting the worst of it though. I've always wanted to see an ice storm so maybe there will be a chance this year. Photogenic Wintry weather is on the way. Smiley
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« Reply #5 on: January 03, 2009, 03:37:31 pm »

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Temps of -7 to -10 degrees C are actually expected for parts of the UK on Mon and Tues so that's considered severe.
And fairly unusual too - we've had a run of ridiculously mild winters. This one is proving to be more like winters (sometimes) used to be, with a blocking high - in Derby we often used to get -15C and -20C wasn't unknown. All that's missing is the snow cover which promotes radiation, insulates the air from the relatively warm ground & allows temperatures to fall really low.

Must say I find it far preferable to the usual succession of rain fronts & strong winds.
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martinastro
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« Reply #6 on: January 03, 2009, 04:02:05 pm »

Yea, it really is more like the way Winters should be around here isn't it. Such a dramatic change to the previous few years. I wonder what this will mean for the Summer weather.

Latest models are struggling to predict the future forecast in the weeks ahead. Some runs are going for a prolonged cold spell, yet other runs are bringing in a SWly air flow with the weather dominated by the Atlantic again. I don't think anyone actually knows what's on the cards yet. We are missing the snow though as you say. I'm sure we will get a good fall at some stage.

With the atmosphere cooling down I'm wondering what the chances are of seeing any rare Nacreous cloud sightings this Winter?. Might be worth watching out for them.

It has been horribly cloudy here though. On many nights clear spells were predicted but I have yet to see any which is unfortunate. However..as long as we get a few clear nights when Lulin peaks then I will be happy enough  Smiley
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« Reply #7 on: January 04, 2009, 10:19:01 pm »

It certainly is cold this evening.

My wee mini weather station is reading -0.7 centigrade and it is saying that the pressure has dropped 10 mb in the last 24 hours.

Could we be in for a little snow in the next day or so?



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martinastro
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« Reply #8 on: January 05, 2009, 06:55:09 pm »

Chance of some light snow in northern areas Wed.
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