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Convective Outlook Ireland & UK - Sun (Updated Level 1 Risk)

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Author Topic: Convective Outlook Ireland & UK - Sun (Updated Level 1 Risk)  (Read 553 times)
Martin Mc Kenna
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Maghera, N. Ireland

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« on: November 22, 2008, 08:39:04 pm »

UPDATE 7pm Sat

Whilst this forecast is issued as low risk, rather restrictive changes in the models reduce potential somewhat further.

Prime regions at risk of Thundersnow are now limited to NW Scotland, Wales and SW UK through afternoon and evening. Earlier potential for SE UK is now canceled due to now weaker fetch of mild air from the west. SW Ireland continues with 'Slight' potential for an isolated tornado event 00Z-06Z Mon (later in the period). Some good potential will exist for thunderstorm development overnight around the Channel Islands.

Risk of snow remains marginal, though a convective regime for west coastal regions in the UK looks pretty certain. The shift of upper supporting winds decrease the risk of organised cell development.

The outlook nevertheless remains open to changes based on new model updates. Still worth keeping an eye on IMO!


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