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WEEKLY FORECAST FOR Monday 27th October-Sunday 2nd November 2008

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Author Topic: WEEKLY FORECAST FOR Monday 27th October-Sunday 2nd November 2008  (Read 195 times)
Martin Mc Kenna
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« on: October 24, 2008, 08:55:19 pm »

WEEKLY FORECAST FOR Monday 27th October-Sunday 2nd November 2008

ISSUED Friday 24th October 1830Z


*Moderate risk of severe frosts in prone areas inland across the northern UK

*Moderate risk of moderate snowfall over low ground in N Ireland, Scotland and N England

*Moderate risk of local blizzards over higher ground in Scotland and N England and N Wales


An unusually wintry look to the week for late October with very cold arctic air moving south to cover all parts by Monday with a risk of some snowfall in many areas, mainly over higher ground but also lowland as well especially in the north, with blizzards over Scottish mountains and substantial drifting snow. Some moderate to severe frosts at night especially inland in the north. It may become a little milder by Thursday, with rain preceded by snow over high ground in places, then further chilly NE winds for the weekend with showers, perhaps still rather wintry over eastern hills.


Monday 27th sees a cloudy night for most in a mainly N-NW'ly flow with a few outbreaks of rain about in the south but it'll become more showery in the north and west; the far north may see local gales overnight . It will become increasingly colder in the northerly flow with the showers turning increasingly wintry as the night progresses in the north. There may be some lying snow over the Highlands and N Scotland before daybreak especially above 250m. More showers developing by day in the north and west along with some east coasts too, some wintry almost anywhere, & some of the showers quite heavy with the risk of hail and thunder too. Snow will lie over northern hills with local drifting and blizzard conditions at times. It may briefly lie at low levels in the north too after the heaviest showers. Quite a strong N'ly wind throughout the day in the far north and NW. The south may stay mainly dry and with sunny periods. It will become very cold in the north later, especially in the wind. Temperatures up to 9-12C in the south and SW, more like 7-9C in the Midlands, Wales and the north of England and N Ireland but only 2-5C across much of inland Scotland, very cold for late October.

Tuesday 28th sees the N'ly flow continue. Minor pertubations in the flow will bring an increased risk of wintry showers through many areas at times, with the risk of more widespread sleet or snow at times in the north and near NE and N facing coasts in the polar flow. A very cold start in the north where cloud clears enough overnight to give a moderate frost and icy patches. The Midlands and south may see a ground frost and a few icy patches too. A drier day generally across most of central and Southern England though, with sunny periods and the chance of a few light showers, possibly wintry. Further north and west for Wales and northwest England as well as Scotland and N Ireland, some sunny periods too but more showers about by day, many heavy and wintry in the noth especially over hills and at times on lower ground too. Highland and N Scotland and upland N Ireland and N England may see a further covering of snow in places. A notably cold day here at just -1 to +2C but in the Isles,& further south across S Scotland, NW and NE England and central parts as well as Wales more like 3-5C and the south, SW and SE may see 6-9C reached in the sunshine, though the wind will make it feel cold.

Wednesday 29th will see a ridge of high pressure move in from the west and the flow become more NEly but a very cold night everywhere, with a widespread slight-moderate frost across many parts away from coasts with further icy patches developing. Wintry showers may continue over northern and NE coastal areas and may well run inland across N and E Scotland and NE England,  they may still be heavy and wintry with hail in places, with the risk of further lying snow, the North York Moors being more at risk.  By day, a lighter flow across most western parts but still a keen NE wind in the east and SE by day. A reasonable amount of sunshine probably around for most parts but some showers developing, probably still quite heavy in the east and wintry too. Some snow is still likely, possibly lying for a time above 250m. They may run well inland into the E Midlands and E Anglia. Temperatures will fall away again quite quickly in lighter winds leading to some icy patches and frost by evennng. Temperatures generally by day a notably cold 3-5C in most areas though the far west, SW and south coasts may see 6-8C but only 0-2C in Highland Scotland.

Thursday 30th looks like the ridge of high pressure will slip SE overnight across northern and central parts of the UK but low pressure and its associated fronts may move SE into W Scotland and N Ireland. A NE'ly flow across the SE at first too giving some wintry showers here overnight and cloud. Elsewhere mainly clear with a slight-moderate or even locally a severe frost, especially in sheltered areas of the Midlands and Wales under potentially clear skies at first with the risk of some mist patches by dawn.  A generally cloudy day for the SE and the NW too as rain, preceded by sleet or snow over high ground above about 300m moves SE across Scotland and N England, and central areas by the afternoon. although probably staying dry in the east and SE. A lot of low cloud across high ground and near western coasts. Milder temperatures at 10-12C in the far NW, though more like 7-9C in E Scotland, northern England, the SW and W Wales and only 4-6C elsewhere, so still cold. 

Friday 31st sees the low sink slowly south, towards the English Channel or NE France. A dry start in E Wales, central and southern England and if its clear enough there'll be another slight, locally moderate frost with icy patches about. Generally though a damp cloudy day for most parts with some rain or sleet -or over high ground in central & southern parts locally possibly even some snow -at times. It may become drier and brighter across N Ireland and Scotland as its fronts push away south east, though only slowly over SE and eastern England such that much of the east will stay damp until midday or at least showery; likewise the west and north west will probably see showers too overnight and through the day, some rather large amounts could fall in places with the risk of hail and thunder. Temperatures near average in the far west and SW at 8-10C though more depressed further east with southern and central areas seeing only 3-6C and locally more like a cold 2-4C, this accentuated by the breeze which will become more E-NEly in the north later on. 

Saturday 1st and Sunday 2nd November are rather uncertain as regards detail, but it looks like the area of low pressure may lie to the south or SE and high presure to the NW, giving a drier day on Saturday in the north and west but with the low pressure to the SE giving a generally NE'ly flow across most areas, this quite strong in the SE, possibly with the risk of gales especially near coasts and hills. Most parts of the south and east then seeing a lot of cloud and showery rain, with a lot of low cloud especially by night in the SE and east but there will be more breaks around in the west and north west with sunny periods at times though confidence on the amount, extent and duration of these is currently low. Sunday then looks to be more settled for most, especially in the NW and west, though the risk of rain in the east and SE remains, possibly some quite heavy rain about in places here. Temperatures near or rather below average for early November at 8-11C for most parts though more like 7-9C further east. Chilly as well by night on both Friday night into Saturday morning and again on Saturday night too with a local frost inland just about possible across some northern, western and central inland areas of England and Scotland.  Milder in the east and SE  though by night under the cloud with a stronger breeze..   


*Risk of moderate -severe frost inland across central and E Scotland, N Ireland, central southern, Midlands and northern England and E Wales especially up to midweek

*Risk of gales with gusts to 55mph in N Scotland especially near coasts and over hills, through the early-midweek period

*Risk of heavy wintry showers with hail & thunder especially in the north and NW at times until midweek

Risk of snow across Scotland, N Ireland and N England even at low levels and elsewhere above 250m at times until Thursday, which may lie at times

*Risk of upland blizzards across hills above 500m in central and N Scotland and N England with some drifting

*FORECAST CONFIDENCE is moderate to high but lower after midweek

Thanks to Same Jowet from the UK Weatherworld.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2008, 09:39:20 pm by martinastro » Report Spam   Logged

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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2008, 10:34:17 pm »

Ah well, this sort of thing is not unknown, though rare in recent years. Any significant snow on ground very, very unlikely here due to the proximity of the sea, which is still close to as warm as it ever gets.

Here on the N coast - NE wind good, NW bad because of the damp air coming in off the sea. The NE wind has dumped most of its moisture before it gets here. SW is usually good too even when the forecast is showers.

Got a wee bit of clear(ish) sky this evening but the seeing is absolutely awful, even at the zenith stars are smeared out into fuzzy blobs about 5 arc sec in diameter. Jet stream obviously isn't far away. The wind is strong enough to be a nuisance too. Don't care about the temperature provided the wind is reasonably light & the air is dry.
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