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Weekly Forecast - Risk Of Severe Weather

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martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« on: October 03, 2008, 06:04:10 pm »

WEEKLY FORECAST FOR Monday 6th -Sunday 12th October 2008 
ISSUED Friday 3rd October 1630Z

WARNINGS OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER: Low-moderate risk of severe gales in the exposed NW on Tuesday and Frday

WEEKLY SUMMARY
A very unsettled week in store for most parts but the west especially will see a lot of showers & longer spells of rain. This unsettled weather spreading to all parts and lasting through the week generally, early on still the risk of upland snow across northern and Highland Scotland. Breifly drier by Friday but the weekend looks wet again for most although the south east and east may stay drier and a bit warmer. 

DAY BY DAY OUTLOOK   
Monday 6th sees a clear start in the east and NE with some early ground frost but cloud and mainly light rain will be affecting the west and NW before dawn, spreading to other northern and central areas during the morning. The highlands may see some upland snow above 600m. The east starting dry with a few mist patches then a few bright periods but soon cloudier with light rain. Some coastal fog and  low cloud too in the west and SW. By late morning brightening a little in the south and drying up with perhaps some weak sunshine. Elsewhere across northern and eastern areas staying cloudier with rain in a breezy south-westerly flow. Temperatures cold in the far north especially in the Highlands at just 5-9C, generally more like 10-14C but the SE, south & SW may reach a warm 16-18C when the sunny periods develop by the afternoon.   

Tuesday 7th will see the UK have a very unsettled day as a deep low develops to the SW, lying about 975mb over W Ireland by midday then moving up over W Scotland by the evening with about the same central pressure. Ahead of it an area of strong winds will develop with S-SW'ly gales in the SW approaches and through the Irish Sea by morning with gusts to 60mph in places. Fronts will bring a lot of rain up from the SW too with some heavy falls over upland areas. A cloudy wet period for most, especially western parts with some heavy rain over upslopes.  Later some blustery showers will develop especially by afternoon in the west and move across many central and southern areas by the afternoon. These may persist through the evening and be quite heavy at times with some local hail and thunder mixed in. Temperatures may reach a mild 15C-16C in the SE and south but generally will struggle to reach 11-13C elsewhere. Highland areas may only see 7-9C with some more snow over the highest peaks.

Wednesday 8th will see the low fill and move away north overnight towards the N Isles with any rain moving NE too here overnight but showers will continue over many western coastal areas and probably run well inland too, they may still be heavy with hail in places especially across N Wales & N Ireland. By day a blustery cool W-NW'ly flow across most northern parts but slacker winds further south as pressure rises. A fair number of showers, possibly still quite heavy in the NW and north but generally a fairly dry day for the SE and east on the whole. By night temperatures will drop away quickly in light winds leading to some mist forming in the south and SE. Temperatures generally rather cool at 13-14C in the south, East Anglia & the SE though south coasts may see 15C but more like 9-12C further north.

Thursday 9th looks like high pressure will lie across the east but low pressure will be developing again in the Atlantic bringing an increasingly strong S-W'ly flow in to the west by the afternoon, with the risk of coastal gales here later on.  A touch of ground frost in the sheltered areas of England under clear skies at first though with the risk of some mist and fog patches by dawn here, especially in the east. A generally sunny start to the day for most in central parts of England and Scotland as well as those in the south and east but with more cloud moving in in the west though probably staying dry before dusk. Some will be heavy over western upslopes later. Temperatures in most parts near or above the mid October average at 15-16C though more like 13-14C in the west and north and only 7-9C in Highland Scotland.

Friday 10th As a deep low forms west of Ireland again fronts will push north and east , though only slowly over England such that much of the east will stay dry until later on. However as the rain will be quite slow moving in the west some rather large amounts could fall in places, especially over south and SW facing upslopes. 30-40mm is possible here. Windy too across western areas and west Channel with local gales and gusts to 60mph, these strong winds spreading further east by the afternoon into the east Channel and through the North Sea. A mainly rather cloudy day in the east but probably drier and perhaps fairly sunny though SE and NE'ern areas may stay cloudier. Temperatures near or rather above average everywhere in the mild S'ly flow at 15-16C across most parts, though temperatures a bit more depressed further north across Scotland at just 10-13C. Parts of eastern East Anglia may see a warmer 18C locally. 

Saturday 11th and Sunday 12th remain rather uncertain as regards detail, but it looks like the area of high pressure may lie to the SE giving a drier day on Saturday but with low pressure to the north west giving a generally SW'ly flow across most areas, this quite strong in the NW with the risk of gales still, especially near coasts and hills. Most parts of the south and east then seeing sunny periods by day, maybe some low cloud by night in the SE and east and with coastal fog in the SW but there will probably be more cloud around in the north west with some rain at times though confidence on the amount, extent and duration of this is currently low.

Sunday then looks to be more unsettled again everywhere  with the risk of rain spreading east again, some quite heavy rain about in places in the west especially over hills. Temperatures near or above average for early October in the smild SWly flow at 14-17C for most parts though more like 12-14C further west and mild by night more or less everywhere..   

FEATURES TO MONITOR THIS WEEK
*Risk of ground frost in sheltered inland valleys of Scotland and central and northern England around midweek

*Risk of gales with gusts to 60mph in the west and NW near coasts throughout much of the week

*Risk of heavy showers with hail & thunder in the west and NW at times through till Thursday

Risk of snow above 1000ft (300m) until Tuesday

*FORECAST CONFIDENCE is moderate but lower by Friday

Wiseweather and UKww disclaimer: The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of this data. Wiseweather and UKww are providing the data "as is" and disclaim any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will Wiseweather or UKww be liable to you or to any third party for any use or misuse of the forecasts or related data.

Dave Wiseman
UKww Executive/C & M Manager/Warnings team

Thanks to the UKWW for the info.

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/
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