Moderate Risk of Thunderstorms northern half of Eire 09Z-18Z
Slight Risk of Convective Showers (Some thundery) UK regions as per map 12Z-21Z
Fairly high risk of general thunderstorm activity over northern regions of Eire through Thurs as the occluded front wraps around the central low pressure system. Advancing upper trough enhancing lift for the whole region. Prime risk moderate hail and CG's.
Slight risk of post frontal isolated convective showers in the wake of the initial upper and surface cold front for parts of UK as per map. Some of these could develop some weak sferic activity. Though given the weak height falls in place there will be some uncertainties here. Upper shear profiles slightly more supportive than of late. Particular attention is given to the front left exit region of the jet stream which shows a strong divergent vector from 700 mb upwards. General dynamic lift could be asserted within the region of the southern most yellow risk box running from Bristol Channel through to Lincs. Whilst there is steady increase in vertical speed shear with height the general profiles look fairly straight lined at all levels with minimal surface convergence right across the board! Prime factor for risk of convection turning thundery will lie with the influence from the 500mb dry incursion. Credit: Tony Gilbert