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Spanish Plume/Severe Storms? - England/UK - Mon & Tues June 27th & 28th

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Author Topic: Spanish Plume/Severe Storms? - England/UK - Mon & Tues June 27th & 28th  (Read 3830 times)
markt
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« Reply #15 on: June 27, 2011, 07:07:52 am »

Excellent updates guys, thanks!  I'm on the periphery of all this so who knows what will come of it for me.  Needless to say I will be taking a raincoat to work with me this morning...  Roll Eyes
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Anton
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« Reply #16 on: June 27, 2011, 10:56:06 am »

Updated Monday 10:51 AM

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #031
ISSUED: 2130UTC SATURDAY 25TH JUNE 2011 (GJ)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:
NORTHERN ENGLAND
NORTHEAST WALES
WEST MIDLANDS
EAST MIDLANDS
EAST ANGLIA

IN EFFECT FROM 1100UTC UNTIL 2100UTC SUNDAY 26TH JUNE 2011

WARM MOISTURE PLUME DESTABILISED UNDER JETSTREAM FORCING

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:
HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTS...HAIL...LIGHTNING...FLASH FLOODING...FUNNELS/TORNADOES

DISCUSSION:
THERE IS NOW STRONG SHORT-RANGE CONFIDENCE IN A POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTIVE RISK AFFECTING MOST OF THE NORTHEN HALF OF ENGLAND DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UK, WITH A STRONG FLOW OF WIND THROUGH THE UPPER LAYERS ALONG THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE JETSTREAM. CAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000J/KG MAY BE ACHIEVED IN STRONG EARLY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE, WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROVIDING ORGANISATION FOR STRONG STORMS. THE RISK COVERS ALL AREAS, BUT STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE EAST MIDLANDS PRIMARILY, WITH POSSIBILITIES OF MODERATE HAIL SIZES EXTENDED TO THE NORTHEAST OF ENGLAND AND THE PENNINES. SUCCESSIVE STORMS MAY LEAD TO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE MONITOR TRAVEL INFORMATION AS NECESSARY. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPGRADED.

Current data from my Davis Pro Weather Station 27 June 2011 10:53:00

Temperature Temps 28.8C
Heat Index       30.8
Dew Point        20.5
Rel Humidity     61%

Pressure (hPa):
Current          1012.36
Trend (per hour) -0.23


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markt
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« Reply #17 on: June 27, 2011, 11:28:56 am »

Some BIG clouds and sharp showers starting to develop in SW England...  At the speed they're coming in we'll be seeing their effects in the midlands in the next couple of 3 or 4 hours...
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paulster78
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« Reply #18 on: June 27, 2011, 03:34:05 pm »

Outlook from Torro...

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2011/011

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 13:40GMT on Monday 27th June 2011

Valid from/until: 13:40GMT - 09:00GMT on Monday 27th/Tuesday 28th June 2011 for the following regions

Parts of (see map)

Much of England

Central and eastern Wales

Extreme SE Scotland

THREATS

Wind gusts to 60mph; heavy rain; cloud-ground lightning; isolated tornadoes; hail to 3cm

DISCUSSION

Reasonably steep lapse rates/EML atop moist boundary layer, approaching upper trough, and local surface convergence/diurnal heating has allowed thunderstorms to form across N England. These are within a regime of 35-40 knots of 0-6km shear, and so may have time to organise before moving offshore. Instability and shear are suffificent for hail to around 3cm diameter, 60 mph winds, and perhaps a tornado, but overall coverage appears too low to warrant a watch.

Further south, an area of mid-level showers is spreading NE across parts of Wales and the Midlands, with further showers/thunderstorms to the west of NW France. The activity over the mainland may root into the boundary layer as it continue to move NE, with an attendant risk of hail/wind/tornado, but at this stage, uncertainty about development precludes a watch.

The activity west of NW France should continue towards SW England this afternoon and then spread NE this evening and overnight. Further activity is expected to develop/move in from the SW across portions of Cent S and SE England and E Anglia overnight and into tomorrow morning. Much of this should be elevated, but cloud layer shear of 20-25 knots may be enough for mid-level rotation to develop, with an attendant risk of hail, perhaps to 3cm. Again, uncertainty over development and overall severe coverage precludes the issuance of a watch at this stage.

Forecaster: RPK.


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paulster78
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« Reply #19 on: June 27, 2011, 03:38:07 pm »

Storms have now exploded up in a very short space of time around the Newcastle area..
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markt
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« Reply #20 on: June 27, 2011, 10:41:03 pm »

It's all missing me so far - just a few big spots of rain...  Sad
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paulster78
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« Reply #21 on: June 28, 2011, 02:09:23 am »

I think it missed almost everybody Mark!  Big let-down today on the storm front with all the good forecasts out, but all is not lost. Checkout the huge MCS in Northern France which could give folk in the SE a nice show if it can hold together and survive the channel crossing, decent amount of sferic plots showing up on it too

Also couple of home-grown storms have have popped up tonight.



Sat image courtesy: SAT24.com
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rjgjr
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« Reply #22 on: June 29, 2011, 03:17:06 am »

Beuatiful and dramatic shot of the mammatus clouds Dennis!
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markt
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« Reply #23 on: June 29, 2011, 07:35:54 am »

Great mammatus indeed Dennis!  Cool
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JohnC
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« Reply #24 on: June 29, 2011, 10:31:23 am »

Nice mammatus,Dennis. I've only ever seen it in the US.

I see the SE got a pasting yesterday. Would you believe it,my wife went to London yesterday on the train and when I picked her up at the station at 7.00pm she said she saw some 'wonderful' lightning Aaaaaagh.   Grin
« Last Edit: June 29, 2011, 10:36:52 am by JohnC » Report Spam   Logged


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