Moderate Risk of Thundery Showers UK & Ireland 12Z-21Z
Moderate Risk of Weak Funnel/ Tornado Development North East UK Regions (As per convective map)
A relatively slack regime across both UK and Ireland. UKMO forecast fax chart shows surface troughing building under a deep upper trough aloft. This combination with added solar heating should see some sharp convective showers occur by the afternoon. Lapse rates are in fact likely to become pretty steep indeed for a time. Whilst upper support for efficient storm development would seem limited there is some encouraging signs of confluent wind fields for much of the north east sector of the UK. A combination of moisture pooling at surface, steep height falls, and confluent surface vector will give the highest return for funnel/ weak tornado genesis so far this year. Certainly one to keep an eye on if you live within the red box.
