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Convective Outlook UK/Ireland - Fri May 13th

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Author Topic: Convective Outlook UK/Ireland - Fri May 13th  (Read 149 times)
Martin Mc Kenna
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Maghera, N. Ireland

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« on: May 12, 2011, 09:24:40 pm »

Slight Risk of Isolated Thunderstorms Ireland, UK & Scotland 12Z-21Z

Deep upper long wave trough moves east across much of UK & Ireland increasing lapse rates. Strong, marginally divergent jet stream encourages upper lift whilst CAPE values expected to increase through the afternoon as a response to moisture advection.

With a low freezing level and dry mid level incursion we might expect to see some moderate hail falls. Whilst the UK later in the period looks to develop a strong deep layer shear environment allowing for stronger isolated sustained storms to develop. Though with relatively weak low level shear hard to say if a mesocyclones will develop or at best mid level, only maybe.The transition of risk would initially appear to be across Ireland early in the period and then moves east later in the day. Credit: Tony Gilbert
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West Midlands, UK

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« Reply #1 on: May 13, 2011, 06:49:11 am »

Thanks for the update Martin.  I'm not far from the edge of that yellow box, and the sky is oh so deceptively blue and placid this early morning...  I can see me getting stranded in the pub again after work this afternoon with weather like this Wink
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