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Thunderstorm Outlook - Thurs 10th

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martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« on: July 09, 2008, 11:15:56 pm »

Thanks very much Paul, I like the new place very much. TORRO have warning tonight...

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2008/015

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 18:20GMT on Wednesday 9th July 2008 Valid from/until: 18:20GMT - 0200GMT on Wed/Thurs 9th/10th July 2008 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Midlands

N Wales

Lincs, and N E Anglia

N England

S Scotland

N Ireland

THREATS

Isolated tornadoes, gusty winds, torrential rain, occasional CG lightning.

SYNOPSIS

Frontal system crossing the UK, with triple point moving across portions of Wales/N England overnight. Thunderstorms have developing INVOF surface boundary/moisture plume across Eire, and these may produce weak tornadoes in the next hour or two. Convection/thunderstorms may also develop INVOF triple point/occlusion through this evening as dry intrusion overspreads it, and perhaps southwards on the cold front. Should this occur, gusty winds may accompany it, perhaps marginally severe. Tornado risk is for the TP/cold front due to fairly cool boundary layer - however, deep shear may support rotation, and should any updraught be augmented by this, a tornado would be possible.

WATCH not deemed necessary due to overall lack of instability.

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