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Thunderstorm Outlook - Thurs 10th

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martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« on: July 10, 2008, 12:16:17 pm »

Update from Tony Gilbert...

Slight Risk Gen Tstorms Ireland 12Z-21Z

Slight Risk Strong Tstorms Wales through to NE UK 15Z-21Z



Primary attention is given to Red Box as per convective map where GFS develop CAPE upwards of 400 j/kg. Partial  overlay of strong upper jet stream acquires impetus to any developing cell. Though vertical wind profiles tend to suggest pretty much straight lined at all levels. Particular attention is given to blue box where dry air at mid levels overlays and imposes on the track of the occlusion. This should utilise the best potential instability.

Prime threat today will be strong convective gusts (below severe)

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