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Convective Outlook - North UK - Sat Jan 8th 2011

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Author Topic: Convective Outlook - North UK - Sat Jan 8th 2011  (Read 67 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« on: January 08, 2011, 12:47:38 am »



Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 08 Jan 2011 06:00 to Sun 09 Jan 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 08 Jan 2011 00:34
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
SYNOPSIS

A southwestern flow pattern is in place over Western Europe, driven by low pressure areas on the North Sea and a trough over the Atlantic in front of Portugal. Unstable airmasses are present along the west and southwest sides of the Iberian Peninsula and north of Ireland and Scotland. No strong shear overlap is present in the Iberian case, as low level shear is barely 10 m/s over land only due to friction, but with relatively weak SREH because of poor clockwise turning hodographs with height. Snyoptic scale forcing is good, however, and with 300-500 J/kg MLCAPE thunderstorms will likely become quite abundant.



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