Cold Spell - Late November

[paulster78]

Thanks for that Mark, id say N.Ireland will be included in the warnings in due course. With the N and NE winds i reckon we should see a good peppering of showers being blown inland, these turning increasingly to sleet and snow as the weekend approaches. Looks like your snow chances are increasing too Mark!

[markt]

Update from Jo Bastardi yesterday...


TUESDAY... NOON
COLDEST ENDING TO NOVEMBER SINCE..

Major cold and some snow is on the way the next week to 10 days across northwestern Europe and London is liable to see the heaviest pre-Dec. 1 snow in at least 19 years (that is all I went back last night). The winter season of 2005-2006 came out of the box fast too (another mega hurricane number year) with the number to beat the last five days of the month in London town at -6.7. So we have to shoot for that and accumulating snow, and I think we are going to get it.

The cold will last through the first week to 10 days of the month but will back off after that. This is not the winter pattern yet. What is going to happen for the heart of winter is the block, now over Greenland and Iceland, will reform over Scandinavia and into the northern part of Great Britain. This will allow the mean trough to form underneath for the heart of winter, hence the threat of the major winter in the coldest part of the year farther south. It's like what will happen in the eastern U.S. the next 3-4 weeks, a rip-roaring start to winter there, then it will reverse. Well the rip-roaring start in Europe this year is not where the heart of winter will be cold. I understand all of you that disagree with me are upset, but look at it this way. If I am wrong, then you should be happy about it; if I am right, no use worrying about it anyway.

[martinastro]

Looks like England is really going to get all the action by the looks of things!, I hope you get a decent fall Mark, keep the camera close to hand 

The latest synoptic discussion from Paul Blight downgrades the snow risk for N. Ireland now which is extremely disappointing, apparently the front moving down in the next few days will produce Rain and sleet, maybe snow above 400m so not very exciting. I hope he's wrong though since the BBC seem to be going for it. No doubt the good old Glenshane will deliver the goods (I hope)  - time will tell.

Thanks for Jo's update - fascinating as always 

[paulster78]

Just had my first taste of snow here, a recent shower of sleet and hail has gave footpaths a light dusting. Earlier the car had a layer of ice on it at 7pm!  That bitter cold artic air has definitely arrived Brrrrrrr.    These types of showers could deliver the goods for us in this cold spell just like last winter.  Glenshane will get it Martin i have no doubts-Bessy Bell Mountain which i can see from home had a white covering this evening! Its about 420metres asl. 

[martinastro]

Excellent stuff Paul, great to hear you got a dusting, that sure is a freezing night isn't it, I went up to Glenshane Pass and the minor roads were sparkling with ice/frost, it was absolutely feeezing outside and painful on the hands making this the first severe frost I've felt this season, the moonlit cirrus and cumulus to my W (possible snow showers) looked amazing in that figid air. I think there will be big things to come this Winter!.

England has the snow now as expected...

[martinastro]

Snow being reported in E Belfast tonight...

[markt]

Well, for me, this cold spell is proving to be just that - a cold spell, clear skies and frost, and no snow...  However, I am slap bang in the middle of the country away from the convective coastlines so I shouldn't be surprised really. 

My parents are currently housesitting for friends in Anglesey, North wales, and we are due to go over and visit this weekend.  They've only had a few skitterings of snow that melt pretty much straight away, however the rest of north wales, looking around the webcams shows a lovely winter wonderland - i'm left with the dilemma of whether or not to risk going over to see them or not.  We wouldn't be setting off till after dark tonight when the frost and ice will return and which ever way we choose to get there we have to go through the snowy areas.  Throw in the fact the mrs drives a Mazda MX5 - great in summer with the roof down, but with rear wheel drive and the ground clearance of a Tonka toy it aint the best in weather like this.  My comment of 'we should have got a Land Rover then we could have just driven the direct route over the mountain' was not received well    It's not the snow i'm overly concerned about, it's the icy roads - they can be pretty twisty going through wales and don't fancy hitting black ice and ending up in a ditch...  Looking at the current radar and pressure charts, the little area of low pressure is scooting down the Irish sea currently, giving north wales a good dumping, there's actually the slimmest of chances the edges of it could skirt the west midlands / welsh border lands - I can see the cloud out to my western horizon as I type...  It's going to be a day of keeping my eye on the radar me thinks...

What I do have my eye on is the area of low pressure set to move north from the bay of biscay early next week.  Now I know it's early doors and the synopsis will probably change, but for me, in the midlands, if this LP moves up into the english channnel and sits there, then I have a half decent chance of a reasonable snow event.  Just gotta wait and see! 

[martinastro]

Regular snow showers over Maghera now, big flakes as well, even some mammatus.

[martinastro]

Weather type:
Snow and Ice


Alert risk period:
27/11/10 08:30 until 29/11/10 08:00


Alert details:
Widespread icy stretches on untreated roads this morning are a hazard across areas were sleet and snow has fallen and frozen overnight, with some road closures or roads only passable with care across Scotland and NE England where up to 20cm have fallen over higher routes.

Further snow showers will affect Scotland and eastern England down as far as East Anglia through today and tomorrow blowing in on north or northeasterly winds. These snow showers will bring further accumulations of 5-15cm across Scotland and NE England, 1-3cm across N and E Midlands, Lincolnshire and East Anglia. This will lead to treacherous driving conditions on untreated roads. please refer to traffic Scotland or Highways Agency websites for the latest on road conditions in your area.

A band of sleet and snow over the English Channel close to the south coast of England may bring snowfall onshore across Dorset, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Sussex and Kent, bringing 2-5cm in places. Snow showers may continue overnight in these areas.

Snow showers will affect Northern Ireland and North Wales at times, bringing minor accumulations in places.

Widespread ice will again form on untreated surfaces overnight where showers have fallen, leading to treacherous driving conditions.

Further snow showers will affect parts of the UK on Sunday, especially across Scotland, eastern England, Northern Ireland and the far southwest of England, bringing further accumulations of 2-5cm in places, with 10-15cm over higher ground.



Confidence: 80%
Issued by Nick F for Netweather.tv

[markt]

Looks like this cold weather is set to continue.  Last night the mercury on my rather crude and ill placed thermometer plunged to -9!!!

Forecast for the next couple of days is for the wind to swing more easterly and become stronger,  This should make it 'feel' colder still and should have the effect of enhancing the convective snow showers, taking them further inland in the UK (hopefully to me!).


Wintry For Another Week
It looks like it will remain cold with a risk of further snowfalls for at least another 7 days across the UK. Snowfall has already had a big impact across parts of Scotland and NE England during the past week with many roads impassable or barely passable, flights and trains disrupted. Over 30cm over snow has been reported across eastern Scotland and 35cm over parts of Northumberland by yesterday evening. Yesterday, Wales, Cornwall and Devon had their turn with snowfall bringing the usual disruption of schools closed, flights disrupted and even 26 mile-long tailbacks on the M4. There was some concern over the last few days of a winter storm affecting the southern half of the UK Tuesday and Wednesday, but fortunately for now it looks like the low developing off Portugal will not deepen too much and will move east across the continent well away from the UK. However, winds still look like they will strengthen from the east with even colder air being brought in by the middle of the week with increasing threat of snow showers penetrating inland.

On to today, a cold day after a very cold start with icy stretches on some roads, temperatures dipped as low as -10.2C (14F) in Wales overnight. Further snow showers will affect Scotland and eastern England down as far as East Anglia through today blowing in on north or northeasterly winds bringing further accumulations, a few showers penetrating into the Midlands. Also, a band of sleet and snow over the English Channel close to the south coast of England may bring snowfall onshore across Dorset, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Sussex and Kent, bringing accumulations in places. Wintry showers also affect Northern Ireland and North Wales at times, bringing minor accumulations in places. Elsewhere away from these areas, it will be mainly dry with some sunny spells across central and western areas, cloudy towards southern and southeast England. A widespread hard frost will mean ice will again form where skies clear on untreated surfaces overnight where showers have fallen, leading to treacherous driving conditions. Snow showers will continue towards north and east coasts and perhaps along the south coast.

Further snow showers will affect parts of the UK on Sunday, especially across Scotland, eastern England, Northern Ireland, the far south and southwest of England, bringing further accumulations. Central and western areas will be mainly dry with some sunshine. Very cold in the easterly winds, which will become strong in the north.

Don’t forget Michael Fish’s latest forecast issued yesterday for this weekend and the coming week: Michael Fish - Latest Forecast 26th Nov - Cold Spell Continues http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=michaelfish;sess=


Issued: Sat 27/11 10:32

[martinastro]

More thundersnow/thunderstorms being reported near Dublin this evening, there will be more thundersnow tonight along Ern coastal regions of Ireland and perhaps NI making this the 4th night in a row of night time thundersnow!

[markt]

Finally got the snow i've been waiting for - woke this morning to a whole 1 inch (Wow!  I hear you all cry!!!) - was an interesting day, it started thawing to something more slushy afternoonish, but them mid afternoon the trough moved over us again delivering another inch on top of the then frozen over slush.  Rush hour has been chaos - there;s quite a few smallish hills around where I live and these all became impassable - cars skidding and sliding all over the place.  Not sure what tomorrow morning will bring - looks like in a couple more hours the showers will return and give me somemore snow on top of the frozen surfaces.  It was touch and go as to whether work (school) would be open this morning, however it did.  All day there has been a continuos line of kids needing first aid - slips, bumps, ice down ears and up noses etc.  That was today - nice fluffy snow on a dry surface - tomorrow that dry surface does not exist and will be a sheet of ice.  I can see cars and hence pupils and staff not being able to get out of side streets etc come morning.  Guess I have to wait and see how much snow the overnight period brings...

Anyway, always like to leave you with something other than my ramblings - below is Jo Bastardis take on all this.  All change by the weekend folks, well some of us, it seems...


TUESDAY 5 P.M.
WORST OF THE COLD ENDS AROUND DEC. 5

The end is in sight to the extreme cold that has led to what could be the coldest last week of November in much of Great Britain. I have been scouring records, and I will rely on the powers at the UKMET office to make the official pronouncement, but there is certainly nothing even close to this in London, where the last week of the month looks like it will end over 10F below normal. 2005 was 5.7 below normal.

However, the end is near as the block weakens westward and the pattern brings in air off the Atlantic. A major fight has developed between the U.S. and ECMWF models with the U.S. still relatively cold through the 15th, the ECMWF shifting the core of the cold eastward. Either way the extreme of the cold is growing old and will fade next week.

Before it does, more snow is liable to fall though I suspect by next week at this time most of the west and south of Great Britain and Ireland is seeing mainly rain with any storms that show up.

Thanks for reading. Ciao for now.

****