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Convective Outlook - Irish Republic - Tues Nov 16th

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Author Topic: Convective Outlook - Irish Republic - Tues Nov 16th  (Read 72 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« on: November 15, 2010, 08:29:27 pm »



Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 16 Nov 2010 06:00 to Wed 17 Nov 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 15 Nov 2010 19:58
Forecaster: KOROSEC

A level 1 was issued for Ireland and areas towards extreme NW Iberia mainly for strong/severe wind gusts and brief tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

Another feature of interest will be rapidly deepening surface low beneath the robust slowly negative tilting upper trough west of UK. Strong surface cyclone moves towards NE just west/near Ireland during the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

... Ireland ...

During the morning hours, rapid cyclogenesis takes place just west of Ireland and moves towards NE during the day. A strong cold front extends from its center towards SW and will be moving east towards UK, France and NW Iberia. With rather strong WAA ahead of the front and coming steep lapse rates aloft, some destabilization and convective cells/line is likely to occur along the surface frontal convergence. Mostly, strong to severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. Closer to the low, better veering profiles suggest enhanced SR helicity which could bring some organized rotating convective cells as well. A couple of funnel clouds or brief tornadoes cannot be excluded there either. Behind the front, strong CAA moves towards the continent with numerous shallow convective cells.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2010, 08:32:41 pm by martinastro » Report Spam   Logged

paulster78
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« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2010, 01:44:54 am »

Getting a fair old battering here tonight, i love the sound of the wind and rain against the windows. We've had some heavy bursts of rain too in the last hour or so.  Will be interesting to see if any convective cells mentioned in the forecast make it across the border later.
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