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Deep Low Pressure Thurs 11th-Fri 12th November

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Author Topic: Deep Low Pressure Thurs 11th-Fri 12th November  (Read 682 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #30 on: November 11, 2010, 09:18:48 am »

TORRO tornado watch just issued for S England...

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

TORRO TORNADO WATCH 2010/009 (PLEASE NOTE TCD017 is still in effect, see below).

A TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 09:15GMT on Thursday 11th November 2010

Valid from/until: 09:15 - 18:00GMT on Thursday 11th November 2010, for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Parts of (see map)

Central and southern England

Much of Wales

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 60-65mph; isolated CG lightning.

SYNOPSIS

Deep Atlantic low will cross Scotland today. Frontal system is moving across England and Wales, with a split cold front evident. Along the surface front, line convection is possible. Strong low-level shear suggests that misocyclone development is possible, with an associated tornado/strong-severe wind gust risk. In addition, a strong mid-level jet streak will nose into southern parts of England through this morning. Ascent associated with this looks like causing a small frontal wave to develop and move across parts of S England later this morning and through this afternoon. Rear-inflow into any cells/lines which develop along this may allow strong winds to develop. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible. Convection is expected to be rather shallow so lightning is not generally expected - however, a small risk exists with any vigorous convection, especially across southern parts of England.

Forecaster: RPK

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2010/017

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 17:35GMT on Wednesday 10th November 2010

Valid from/until: 0000-2359GMT on Thursday 11th November 2010 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

England

Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Ireland

THREATS

Wind gusts to 65-75mph; tornadoes; occasional CG lightning; hail

SYNOPSIS

Rapidly deepening Atlantic storm will push an occluding frontal system across the British Isles overnight and through Wednesday. Instability along the occluded front and cold front is not predicted to be deep and very large; however, a forced line of shallow convection is possible across parts of Eire/N Ireland, and into Scotland/N England later tonight and for a time tomorrow morning. Strong ascent across northern parts of Ireland and N Ireland and into W Scotland could lead to somewhat deeper convection here, with a risk of thunder. Wind gusts of 50-65mph possible, along with isolated tornadoes.

Across Wales and central and southern parts of England, the cold front is forecast to split, with the surface cold front making somewhat slower eastwards progress than further north. Thus the risk of line convection is lower here. However, across S Wales and southern parts of England, as the upper trough extends SE'wards and a strong mid-level jet streak rounds the base of this, a wave may develop along the cold front in the SW approaches during the morning hours and then move eastwards across southern parts through the middle of the day and into the afternoon hours. Shallow convection may develop in a rather strongly-sheared environment. Broken convective lines are possible with rear-inflow, promoting severe wind gusts (55-65mph) along with a few tornadoes. A tornado watch may be required tomorrow morning for this.

Further north, behind the front heavy showers and few thunderstorms are expected, especially close to western coasts. Strong-severe wind gusts are likely with these.

Forecaster: RPK


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paulster78
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« Reply #31 on: November 11, 2010, 02:37:33 pm »

The Met Office now on board with severe weather warnings for N.Ireland.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_warnings.html
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martinastro
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« Reply #32 on: November 11, 2010, 02:47:19 pm »

About time!  Smiley 

Powerful gusts of wind here, house shook a few times, intense radar echoes too.
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martinastro
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« Reply #33 on: November 11, 2010, 03:54:47 pm »

wow - really severe blast there now!
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martinastro
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« Reply #34 on: November 11, 2010, 03:57:17 pm »

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Anton
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« Reply #35 on: November 11, 2010, 03:57:41 pm »

Bolt the scopes down Martin, highest gust recorded from the weather station today reached 40mph at 12:13pm. When out earlier on today the rain was hitting me sideways it was crazy for a short while then the wind dropped followed by clear skies.

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Anthony
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martinastro
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« Reply #36 on: November 11, 2010, 04:01:22 pm »

Cheers Anthony - the scope is indoors and tucked up in bed  Smiley

Things are getting worse here and I feel the power could go out later, Knock airport had gusts over 70mph and that report is two hours old, the isobars are getting tighter and tighter  Smiley
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John9929
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« Reply #37 on: November 11, 2010, 04:05:34 pm »

Very severe gusts here Martin, I though my front window was in a few times, horizontal rain as well!
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martinastro
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« Reply #38 on: November 11, 2010, 04:08:11 pm »

Same here John, felt like a squall passage for a while, saw convective tops in a break and thought I heard thunder at least once earlier. Check out this sat images, what a beauty of a storm!  Smiley

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martinastro
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« Reply #39 on: November 11, 2010, 04:14:59 pm »

81mph gusts in W Ireland now...
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« Reply #40 on: November 11, 2010, 04:45:25 pm »

Nasty out there, just got a report of a van hit by a falling tree in the west Tyrone area-no other information yet.
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John9929
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« Reply #41 on: November 11, 2010, 04:58:48 pm »

That's an amazing image Martin, notice the "clumps", on the inner edge, could those be thunder storms?

Hope nobody's hurt Paul!
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martinastro
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« Reply #42 on: November 11, 2010, 07:11:53 pm »

Very possible John - they do look like anvils for sure, solid ones at that.

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Anton
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« Reply #43 on: November 11, 2010, 08:00:58 pm »

Martin, what are the conditions like currently? I assume you won’t be out and about on any cliff tops taking images tonight  Cheesy

Thanks

Anthony
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« Reply #44 on: November 11, 2010, 09:56:17 pm »

Winds have moderated here but there still a good few strong gusts too, quite a lot of roads flooded in and around Omagh with these recent heavy squally showers.  5500 people without power in N.Ireland.  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-11735735

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