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Deep Low Pressure Thurs 11th-Fri 12th November

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Author Topic: Deep Low Pressure Thurs 11th-Fri 12th November  (Read 682 times)
martinastro
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« Reply #15 on: November 10, 2010, 04:25:41 pm »

Here she comes...

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martinastro
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« Reply #16 on: November 10, 2010, 05:51:32 pm »



TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2010/017

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 17:35GMT on Wednesday 10th November 2010

Valid from/until: 0000-2359GMT on Thursday 11th November 2010 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

England

Wales

Scotland

N Ireland

Ireland

THREATS

Wind gusts to 65-75mph; tornadoes; occasional CG lightning; hail

SYNOPSIS

Rapidly deepening Atlantic storm will push an occluding frontal system across the British Isles overnight and through Wednesday. Instability along the occluded front and cold front is not predicted to be deep and very large; however, a forced line of shallow convection is possible across parts of Eire/N Ireland, and into Scotland/N England later tonight and for a time tomorrow morning. Strong ascent across northern parts of Ireland and N Ireland and into W Scotland could lead to somewhat deeper convection here, with a risk of thunder. Wind gusts of 50-65mph possible, along with isolated tornadoes.

Across Wales and central and southern parts of England, the cold front is forecast to split, with the surface cold front making somewhat slower eastwards progress than further north. Thus the risk of line convection is lower here. However, across S Wales and southern parts of England, as the upper trough extends SE'wards and a strong mid-level jet streak rounds the base of this, a wave may develop along the cold front in the SW approaches during the morning hours and then move eastwards across southern parts through the middle of the day and into the afternoon hours. Shallow convection may develop in a rather strongly-sheared environment. Broken convective lines are possible with rear-inflow, promoting severe wind gusts (55-65mph) along with a few tornadoes. A tornado watch may be required tomorrow morning for this.

Further north, behind the front heavy showers and few thunderstorms are expected, especially close to western coasts. Strong-severe wind gusts are likely with these.

Forecaster: RPK
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JohnC
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« Reply #17 on: November 10, 2010, 05:55:27 pm »

Awesome.  Shocked
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markt
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« Reply #18 on: November 10, 2010, 06:58:59 pm »

I personally think this storm is going to be alot more damaging than the one from a few days ago...
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« Reply #19 on: November 10, 2010, 07:46:47 pm »

I've been watching the BBC weather and still can't find out what sort of wind speed the west coast of Wales will get Friday morning, one chat showed rain another didn't  Roll Eyes
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martinastro
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« Reply #20 on: November 10, 2010, 08:35:54 pm »

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WATCH


ISSUED: 1800UTC, WEDNESDAY 10TH NOVEMBER 2010.

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:
ALL REGIONS IN SCOTLAND, ENGLAND, WALES AND NORTHERN IRELAND.

IN EFFECT FROM 2100UTC ON WEDNESDAY 10TH NOVEMBER UNTIL 1200UTC ON FRIDAY 12TH NOVEMBER 2010.

ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO CROSS THE UK, BRINGING WET AND WINDY WEATHER TO MOST PLACES.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:
HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 80mph.

DISCUSSION:
ANOTHER VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SCOTLAND BRINGING THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE UK. A VIGOROUS, 160KT UPPER JET STREAK WILL LIE ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF THE UK ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE - 'CARMEN' - THAT WILL TRACK EASTWARDS ACROSS SCOTLAND. A BLEND OF MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE AROUND 950hPa, PERHAPS EVEN SUB-950hPa WITH MET OFFICE DATA SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE OF 946 hPa JUST WEST OF THE SCOTTISH COASTLINE. THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY, WITH MUCH OF ENGLAND LOCATED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONTS SUGGEST THAT SEVERE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM IS UNLIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE UK. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY POSE A RISK THAT WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE ISSUANCE OF AN APPROPRIATE WATCH - A SURGE OF DRY AIR AND VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF CONVECTION TO FIRE WITH STRONG REAR-INFLOW AND THE ASSOCIATED RISKS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. AT THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET, VORTICITY PRESENT SHOULD TRIGGER CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED RAINFALL EMBEDDED IN A WRAP-AROUND OCCLUSION, AND IT IS IN THIS REGION OF SOUTHWEST SCOTLAND THAT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL OCCUR - UP TO AROUND 45mm ACCUMULATION. THE MAIN RISK WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY POST COLD-FRONTAL. A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SEE 900hPa WINDS INCREASING TO 65-70 KNOTS OVER A WIDE AREA. WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL AND EXPOSED AREAS, AND ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS ARE A RISK. INLAND GUSTS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS, STILL REACHING POTENTIALLY UP TO 55-60 KNOTS IN PLACES. COASTAL AREAS SEEING WINDS SUSTAINED UP TO 45 KNOTS, WITH 20-30 KNOTS INLAND. STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTS EASING BELOW SEVERE LEVELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

A WARNING WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY AS THE ZONE OF SEVERE WEATHER ENTERS THE BRITISH ISLES.
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martinastro
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« Reply #21 on: November 10, 2010, 08:52:26 pm »

Netweather update...

Weather type:
Severe Gales, Heavy Rain


Alert risk period:
10/11/2010 21:00 until 12/11/2010 12:00


Alert details:
A deep Atlantic low pressure system will move towards the country from Wednesday evening, crossing Scotland during Thursday bringing with it severe weather in the form of severe gales and heavy rain.

Alert detail
All regions of the UK are included within this alert although the northern half of Scotland will is expected to miss the strongest winds.

Wind
Western coastal regions of Southern Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland are expected to see the strongest winds from this system. An initial burst of southerly winds will develop from the west during this evening to affect Ireland and eventually run up through the Irish sea overnight - these are likely to bring peak gusts of 50-60mph.

Westerly gales/severe gales will then develop during the morning on Thursday, firstly affecting the west coast of Ireland before spreading inland and towards the British mainland during the remainder of the day. Western coastal areas may see gusts in excess of 80mph, with gusts inland and along the south coast of England approaching 70mph (perhaps 80mph over western facing hills).

Through the evening and overnight the winds will slowly ease from the west, but as they exit the east coast during this time, further gusts in excess of 70mph are possible before calmer conditions start to move in.

With wind speeds at the levels that are expected, structural damage, uprooted trees, falling branches and difficult travel conditions are possible, so please take extra care if you have to travel.

Rain
Heavy rain will accompany this system, moving in from the West overnight Wednesday before clearing across the country during Thursday. In many areas totals will remain below alert levels of 25mm but on western facing hills up to 40mm is possible, which may add to any flooding issues that have arisen during this week. Rain will fall as snow over 2000ft (600m) on Scottish mountains.

A further spell of heavy rain is also likely to run up into southern areas during Friday but this will be covered within a separate alert should the need arise.

This alert may be updated/superseded by flash alerts during Thursday.



Confidence: 75%
Issued by PM for Netweather.tv
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paulster78
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« Reply #22 on: November 10, 2010, 08:54:45 pm »

Jeez thats some read from skywarn!!  Rain associated with this system not far away now, winds should start to pick up as well.  A ferocious storm is on the cards-hope everyone stays safe in the warned areas.
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« Reply #23 on: November 10, 2010, 09:29:51 pm »

hope everyone stays safe in the warned areas.

Seconded!

You can also watch the progress of the storm via the excellent Sat.24.com animation page (always great to watch).
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Remember:- If all else fails, read the Instruction Manual! Grin
 


Andy
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« Reply #24 on: November 10, 2010, 09:58:02 pm »

This one's going to be in the news quite a bit over the next couple of days, with winds like these over population areas of the UK there will be plenty of chaos created!
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« Reply #25 on: November 10, 2010, 10:01:50 pm »

Just waiting on that phonecall from work to say my shift is cancelled  Grin
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« Reply #26 on: November 10, 2010, 11:51:32 pm »

Yes Andy great site, look at the storm on satellite, she's massive and check out that wrap around feature!


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« Reply #27 on: November 11, 2010, 06:45:43 am »

Not even an amber warning for NI on the Met Office site, yet the shipping forceast is for storm force 10 / violent storm 11 in sea areas Malin & Irish Sea which comprise the NI coastline.

Very odd.

Well the first part is through, the rain & wind was nowhere near as bad as what we had on Sunday/Monday. But this one looks like a horse (the kick is at the rear end).
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markt
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« Reply #28 on: November 11, 2010, 07:30:56 am »

I think the powers that be are under playing it.  Watching the BBC weather last night they didn't really make much of it - I think its the usual case of don't warn for anything till it's actually happening / happened.

I agree with you on this one being a horse Brian, I think the worst of the winds are yet to come...
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martinastro
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« Reply #29 on: November 11, 2010, 09:04:28 am »

Beautiful Sat image Paul  Grin

Disgusted at the Met Office for not issuing a severe weather warning, that's completely unacceptable, they will probably do it later but then it will be too late.

Had some strong gusts early this morning and there's already heavy showers and thunderstorms in W areas of Ireland/N. Ireland. There's a possiblity of severe t-storms later in conjunction with severe gales this evening and tonight - it's going to be wild at the coasts and as Brian said...the kick is at the rear end). The wind shear charts this afternoon are incredible  Smiley
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