TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2010/017
A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 17:35GMT on Wednesday 10th November 2010
Valid from/until: 0000-2359GMT on Thursday 11th November 2010 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:
England
Wales
Scotland
N Ireland
Ireland
THREATS
Wind gusts to 65-75mph; tornadoes; occasional CG lightning; hail
SYNOPSIS
Rapidly deepening Atlantic storm will push an occluding frontal system across the British Isles overnight and through Wednesday. Instability along the occluded front and cold front is not predicted to be deep and very large; however, a forced line of shallow convection is possible across parts of Eire/N Ireland, and into Scotland/N England later tonight and for a time tomorrow morning. Strong ascent across northern parts of Ireland and N Ireland and into W Scotland could lead to somewhat deeper convection here, with a risk of thunder. Wind gusts of 50-65mph possible, along with isolated tornadoes.
Across Wales and central and southern parts of England, the cold front is forecast to split, with the surface cold front making somewhat slower eastwards progress than further north. Thus the risk of line convection is lower here. However, across S Wales and southern parts of England, as the upper trough extends SE'wards and a strong mid-level jet streak rounds the base of this, a wave may develop along the cold front in the SW approaches during the morning hours and then move eastwards across southern parts through the middle of the day and into the afternoon hours. Shallow convection may develop in a rather strongly-sheared environment. Broken convective lines are possible with rear-inflow, promoting severe wind gusts (55-65mph) along with a few tornadoes. A tornado watch may be required tomorrow morning for this.
Further north, behind the front heavy showers and few thunderstorms are expected, especially close to western coasts. Strong-severe wind gusts are likely with these.
Forecaster: RPK
