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Deep Low Pressure Thurs 11th-Fri 12th November

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Author Topic: Deep Low Pressure Thurs 11th-Fri 12th November  (Read 682 times)
paulster78
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« on: November 09, 2010, 10:04:35 am »

Its looking increasingly likely that another deep low pressure is going to hit the Uk later in the week. At the minute the current charts are saying N.Ireland and Scotland are going to take the brunt of it with high winds reaching 80mph+, of course the track of the low could change but this needs watching.

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JohnC
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« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2010, 10:12:03 am »

Too far north to make a trip to the SW coast  not really worth it but will keep an eye on this thread. We get a lot more of these severe storms now so it's just a matter of time before we get one hitting  the SW here.
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martinastro
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« Reply #2 on: November 09, 2010, 04:26:40 pm »

Thanks for starting this thread Paul - looks like a beast of storm heading our way and dangerous too with those 80mph gusts! - this is definitely one to keep an eye on, possible convective potential from this one too. I bet the waves on the N/NW coasts will be monsters.  Smiley
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martinastro
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« Reply #3 on: November 09, 2010, 05:43:29 pm »

from Netweather...

Weather type:
Strong Winds

Alert risk period:
11/11/2010 00:01 until 12/11/2010 23:59

Alert details:
Another Atlantic low pressure system will approach the British Isles again during Thursday, bringing with it the threat of gales and/or severe gales along with a period of heavy rain.

Although the precise track of the low pressure system is still uncertain, it is very likely to run either across Scotland or to the North of Scotland with it's strongest winds on it's southern edge.

Areas most likely to be affected are Northern Ireland, Scotland (including the Northern and Western Isles), Northern England and North Wales. Gusts exceeding 70mph are possible in exposed coastal regions, whilst inland 60mph is more likely.

The rainfall associated with this system will be heavy but is expected to move through quite quickly so rainfall totals are likely to remain beneath 25mm. Over the mountains (above 2000ft, 600m) the rain is likely to fall as snow for a time.

This watch will be updated as the track and intensity of the low pressure system becomes more certain.

Confidence: 70%
Issued by PM for Netweather.tv
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markt
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« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2010, 05:52:23 pm »

More fun and games!  Roll Eyes
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paulster78
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« Reply #5 on: November 09, 2010, 09:39:53 pm »

The NW coast will be scary on Thursday, love to be there with the camera but i think you would need to be tied down to take photographs at the peak of this storm! lol   This storm, "Carmen" has the potential to cause some disruption alright, just waiting for the next GFS run now to see.   
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martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #6 on: November 09, 2010, 10:09:31 pm »

It would be insane on the N coast lol - truly insane!  Smiley



Check out the shear/tornado charts for this storm - wow, top of the scale!

Did you see the footage on BBC Newsline of the mountainous seas at the N coast with surfers? - that was awesome.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2010, 10:14:22 pm by martinastro » Report Spam   Logged

paulster78
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« Reply #7 on: November 09, 2010, 10:16:42 pm »

I did see that, couldn't believe it was the Irish coast and they were keeping tight-lipped about the location too.  Latest run from GFS at 18:00 has this storm on the same track or even a little further south and even deeper with tighter isobars!!  Shocked   The Met office are very quite....
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« Reply #8 on: November 09, 2010, 10:38:14 pm »

any one game for a photo shoot at portstewart strand thur night...... Wink
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paulster78
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« Reply #9 on: November 09, 2010, 11:01:22 pm »

Im there Jonathan!    Thinking of camping out too-i'll bring the two man tent  Grin
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martinastro
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« Reply #10 on: November 09, 2010, 11:02:11 pm »

..they let it slip tonight it was the W coast...but no more info, anyone see the images or vid yet on the net?
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paulster78
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« Reply #11 on: November 09, 2010, 11:43:48 pm »

 Mental waves   
 
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1109/surfing.html
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martinastro
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« Reply #12 on: November 10, 2010, 12:55:01 am »

Thanks for the link Paul - wow  Shocked
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« Reply #13 on: November 10, 2010, 12:50:45 pm »

This should make for some interesting work on the ferries tomorrow morning Smiley Luckily i avoided the previous storm when i was off on leave., what was supposed to be a routine 3hr crossing took 12 hours according to a work colleague! This is what th met office shipping forecast is giving for tomorrow morning!

Southerly severe gale force 9 expected later

Wind-Northwesterly, backing southerly or southwesterly 5 or 6, increasing 7 to severe gale 9, veering westerly or southwesterly later. Sea State-Very rough or high.

That has to be one of the worst sea forecasts ive seen for the irish sea since i started working on the boats.

WMO Sea State Code Wave Height (meters) Characteristics
0- 0 Calm (glassy)
1- 0 to 0.1 Calm (rippled)
2- 0.1 to 0.5 Smooth (wavelets)
3 -0.5 to 1.25 Slight
4- 1.25 to 2.5 Moderate
5- 2.5 to 4 Rough
6 -4 to 6 Very rough
7 -6 to 9 High
8- 9 to 14 Very high
9- Over 14 Phenomenal
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martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #14 on: November 10, 2010, 02:48:00 pm »

Met Eireann weather warning
Issued at 10 November 2010 - 12:18
Severe weather warning
Stormy conditions will affect Ireland Thursday afternoon, evening and for much of Thursday night.
Gale force westerly winds will gust betwen 100
and 120 km/hr generally, but gusts of up to 140 km/hr are expected in exposed parts of Connaught and Ulster. These winds are likely to lead to some structural damage and will be accompanied by high seas on Atlantic coasts.Winds will moderate considerably towards dawn on Friday.
Valid 1200hrs Thursday 11/11/10 to 0600 hrs
Friday 12/11/10

Marine Institute wave forecast
http://www.marine.ie/home/services/operational/oceanography/WaveFor...

(Surfers, to the west!)
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