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Aurora Alert Thread

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Author Topic: Aurora Alert Thread  (Read 2595 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #15 on: November 13, 2010, 06:45:23 pm »

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 November). Activity is expected to increase to mostly unsettled levels on day two (14 November) and unsettled to active levels on day three (15 November). This increase in activity is due to the arrival of multiple small CME's mixed with the effects of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.

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martinastro
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« Reply #16 on: November 14, 2010, 11:23:40 am »

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active with the chance for minor storming and a slight chance major storming on day 1 (15 Nov) due to the forecasted arrival of a shock from the CME on 12 November. Conditions are expected to persist at mostly active levels with the chance for minor storming on day 2 (16 November), and mostly active with a slight chance for minor storming on day 3 (17 November).



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markt
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« Reply #17 on: November 15, 2010, 12:26:47 am »

I could see aurora on the icelandic webcams earlier tonight...  Nothing from the west mids tho!  Roll Eyes
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« Reply #18 on: November 15, 2010, 02:49:11 am »

Ditto down here Mark - but one of the clearest skies that I've had for weeks!  Smiley
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Remember:- If all else fails, read the Instruction Manual! Grin
 


Andy
martinastro
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« Reply #19 on: January 07, 2011, 01:31:27 am »

A faint low aurora display has been visible from here in the NW to N sky sector for the last 20 min's and still present.
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martinastro
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« Reply #20 on: January 07, 2011, 02:05:29 am »

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels all three days of the forecast period (06 - 08 January). Isolated active to minor storm periods are possible beginning on 08 January. The forecasted increase in activity levels is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream that is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position by 06 January.

Minor update added at 20:45 UTC: A high speed stream from CH431 is in progress. Solar wind density reached very high levels at ACE and peaked around 20h UTC. The interplanetary magnetic field has swung strongly southwards. Minor and even major geomagnetic storming is possible for the remainder of the day and early on January 7. The disturbance appears to be much stronger than anticipated.

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martinastro
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« Reply #21 on: February 02, 2011, 09:02:12 am »

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for a minor storm on day 1 (2 February) due to coronal hole effects along with intermittent periods of Bz south. On day 2 (3 February), unsettled to active conditions are forecast until the anticipated mid-day arrival of the CME from 30 January, when an isolated minor storm will become likely. Conditions on day 3 (4 February) are expected to be mostly unsettled to active as coronal hole effects begin to wane.

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martinastro
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« Reply #22 on: February 04, 2011, 08:44:08 pm »

Aurora now visible for mid northern latitudes! - wet and windy here.
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paulster78
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« Reply #23 on: February 04, 2011, 10:30:39 pm »

Can't see there being any breaks in the cloud either-constant rain here  Sad
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martinastro
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« Reply #24 on: February 13, 2011, 11:15:08 pm »

Active Region 1158 has unleashed an M6-Class solar flare causing a radio black out and CME heading directly for Earth. Impact in 2-3 days, be on the alert for aurora displays!  Smiley
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« Reply #25 on: February 15, 2011, 06:40:03 am »

There was an X class flare in the early hours of the morning (Feb 15) - first since 2006 - from AR 11158 which is just about on the centre of the disk, so any ejecta should be headed our way. Pity any aurora will coincide with full moon but that's the way the cookie crumbles - the cloud gods probably won't help either.
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martinastro
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« Reply #26 on: February 17, 2011, 01:32:13 am »

The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet on day one (February 17). An increase to unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for minor storm periods is expected late on day one into day two (18 February). The increased activity is forecast due to the expected arrival of the CME associated with the X2 flare that occurred on 15/0156Z. Day three (19 February) is expected to be quiet to active as the disturbance subsides.
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martinastro
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« Reply #27 on: March 05, 2011, 12:40:10 pm »

The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels with a slight chance for minor storm periods at high latitudes for the next three days (05-07 March). Model guidance suggests a possible arrival on day two (06 March) of an Earth-directed CME observed early on 03 March. This slow-moving CME is expected to bring a slight chance for major storm conditions at high latitudes. Activity levels are anticipated to decrease on day three (07 March).
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« Reply #28 on: March 05, 2011, 03:44:22 pm »

The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels with a slight chance for minor storm periods at high latitudes for the next three days (05-07 March). Model guidance suggests a possible arrival on day two (06 March) of an Earth-directed CME observed early on 03 March. This slow-moving CME is expected to bring a slight chance for major storm conditions at high latitudes. Activity levels are anticipated to decrease on day three (07 March).

I hope something hits...  I'm sat right on the north coast of Anglesey, North Wales, this weekend - I was even optimistic about the possibility of aurora and so brought the camera and tripod with me.  Staying with my parents who have had lovely blue clear skies all week...  Arrived friday night when it slowly became cloudy, and now it's completely greyed out with sea fog from the Irish sea spoiling any chance of viewing anything past 30 yards.   Just been looking at sat24 and will be more luck than judgement if it does clear up...  Fingers crossed!  Roll Eyes
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martinastro
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« Reply #29 on: March 08, 2011, 03:51:36 pm »

Spaceweather is getting very exciting - A partial halo CME was observed following a long duration (LDE) event in region 11166. This CME could reach Earth on March 9/10, however, it will very likely be overtaken by the very fast CME produced by the M3.7 LDE in region 11164 late in the day. This CME could reach Earth on March 9 and cause minor to severe geomagnetic storming.
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