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Aurora Alert Thread

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martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« on: October 18, 2010, 02:26:18 pm »

I've decided to make a new long term thread for issuing aurora alerts, this would make more sense than having multiple threads everytime a solar wind stream hits. The forecasts on here are only issued when there's a slight chance (or more) of activity for those at mid northern latitudes. Please keep this thread for forecasts, alerts, and discussion. The thread is now underway for the period Oct 18-20th).

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels all three days of the forecast period (18 - 20 October), with a chance for M-class events from evolving Region 1112.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels all three days of the forecast period (18 - 20 October). Isolated minor storm periods are possible on 19 October. A coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position late on 18 October, followed by a second geoeffective CH HSS likely to arrive early on 20 October. These features, coupled with possible effects from the CME observed on 14 October, expected to arrive on 19 October, are the reasons for the forecasted increase in geomagnetic activity.

« Last Edit: October 18, 2010, 02:28:27 pm by martinastro » Report Spam   Logged

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martinastro
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« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2010, 03:07:03 pm »

Also, members can use this thread in conjunction with the aurora charts thread for watching any current geomagnetic activity. Both of these threads are stickies and will remain at the top of the Astronomy and Space section.

http://astrophotoweather.smfforfree4.com/index.php/topic,323.0.html
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martinastro
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« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2010, 08:12:41 pm »

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels all three days of the forecast period (19 - 21 October), with isolated minor storm periods possible on 19 October. A coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position late on 18 October or early on 19 October, followed by a second geoeffective CH HSS expected to arrive early on 20 October. These features, coupled with possible effects from the CME observed on 14 October, are the reasons for the forecasted increase in geomagnetic activity.

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martinastro
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2010, 05:30:59 pm »

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally quiet for the first day (22 October) and about halfway through the second day (23 October). Sometime around mid-day on 23 October and continuing through the third day (24 October), an increase to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods is expected. There is also a chance for isolated storm periods at some locations during this interval. The increase is forecast because of expected effects from a high speed solar wind stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole.
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markt
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2010, 07:39:37 am »

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally quiet for the first day (22 October) and about halfway through the second day (23 October). Sometime around mid-day on 23 October and continuing through the third day (24 October), an increase to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods is expected. There is also a chance for isolated storm periods at some locations during this interval. The increase is forecast because of expected effects from a high speed solar wind stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole.

I'm currently sat at Heathrow Airport waiting to fly out to Reykjavik as I type this, and reading the above has me grinning like a Cheshire Cat!  Icelandic weather is forecast VERY cold and clear (they're sat under high pressure) through till monday / tuesday.  I have a full armoury of camera and lenses with me and some serious cold weather clothing - if there's any sign of the aurora there I will snap it Wink

Not sure what the internet connection is like where i'm staying (new hotel for me) - however if I can I will get some images up here for you.

Speak soon,
Mark Smiley
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martinastro
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2010, 03:56:30 pm »

Best of luck Mark!, you couldn't have picked a better time, that's a very good forecast, you will get auroras on at least two nights 100%. N lats on red alert at moment. Enjoy the show!, will be watching for anything from here too.  Smiley
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martinastro
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2010, 06:45:44 pm »

Geostorm now! - KP 5
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2010, 09:01:00 pm »

First good clear night for a long time moon very bright here tonight.
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martinastro
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2010, 09:12:37 pm »

Great clear night isn't Dave, Moon is extremely bright, aurora charts are bouncing around, will need close watching tonight, N lats have been getting a great show for hours, hope mid lats get their chance soon.
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2010, 11:21:28 pm »

Gonna have to be a remarkable aurora to penetrate the moonlight .... the NW horizon is "bright" but I'm pretty sure it's just the moon .... no colour, no signs or rays etc. Incidentally the seeing is reasonably steady at times, I've just had my best view of Jupiter this apparition. Not a great night for faint objects though!
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martinastro
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« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2010, 03:47:28 am »

Conor and I are just back from the N coast but the aurora didn't make it this far S tonight, next try on Sun night. Stunning clear sky though and the moon made Dunluce like daylight, convection forming over the Sea too. Arrived back home to a nasty frost, car windows are covered in ice.
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martinastro
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« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2010, 03:48:30 am »

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is forecast to be unsettled to active with isolated periods of minor storming likely at all latitudes and a chance for major storming at high latitudes for days 1-2 (24-25 October). Conditions are forecast to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance for an isolated minor storm on day 3 (26 October) at all latitudes. The elevated activity is expected in part to a large, favorably positioned coronal hole as well as a possible glancing blow on 25 October from the aforementioned CME.

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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2010, 11:50:42 am »

Morning all!

A quick report - yesterday didn't quite go as planned, we were delayed in heathrow airport for 12 hours because our plane started puffing out black smoke from its engine as we were taxi-ing for take off.  Back to departures we went and ended up waiting for another plane to fly from Iceland to get us here...  We finally arrived at our hotel at 4.20am this morning - as opposed to 3 in the afternoon. 

Aurora was very bright, we could easily see it despite the moonlight and we were stood out of the front of the rather light polluted airport - lots of dancing rays, pinks, purples, greens.  However all the photo gear was bagged up in the back of the airport shuttle at this point...  By 4.20am had been up for nearly 24hrs so bed was calling...

Today is a different matter.  I'm refreshed, it's lovely clear deep blue skies http://www.vedur.is/vedur/athuganir/vefmyndavelar/reykjavik/#teg=n and these are forecast till tomorrow day.  Off out around town for a while then coming back for a kip before an all night aurora vigil starts.  SW is suggesting tonights will be better than last nights, so things could be pretty darn good!  Have internet in the room so will get pics up as and when.

By for now,
Mark
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martinastro
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2010, 12:25:50 pm »

Great to know you are now settled in Mark and feeling refreshed!, tonight is the night for action (I hope) so I'm sure you will get high rewards!.  Smiley Here's the alert from SW incase others haven't seen it yet...

NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of severe geomagnetic storms around the poles on Oct. 25th. The forecast is prompted by a possible double whammy: both a solar wind stream and a CME could hit Earth's magnetic field on that date.
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markt
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« Reply #14 on: October 25, 2010, 08:12:19 pm »

Don't anyone mention cloud!  Angry

In true fashion cursed cloud appeared just before sunset.  However, the auroras were there - I could see the outline of the moon through the clouds and also at times the eerie green glow at its brightest shining through the veil of cloud(!!!)  If it had been clear it would have surely been a sight to behold.  Tonights weather is 'inclement' to say he least - howling gale and snow / sleet / rain simultaneously.  I actually quite like it in a strange way - can't beat a nice bit of extreme weather!  Here in Iceland the auroral oval is never far away so will be out there observing whenever the clouds part - i'll also be taking pictures when the wind drops as at the moment it would send the camera and tripod clean over.

Clear skies to you all! Smiley
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