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Convective Outlook - UK/Ireland - Wed Aug 18th

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Author Topic: Convective Outlook - UK/Ireland - Wed Aug 18th  (Read 118 times)
martinastro
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« on: August 17, 2010, 10:54:06 pm »



Valid: 18/08/2010 06:00 - 19/08/2010 06:00
Headline: ...THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...

Synopsis
The upper/surface low off the NW coast of Ireland will move east inland across central UK during Wednesday, with a series of troughs moving east in an unstable westerly flow.

IRELAND, ENGLAND, WALES and S SCOTLAND

Colder upper air to the NW of Ireland will spread east across England and Wales on Weds, as upper low to the NW elongates E across central UK. These cold temperatures aloft and surface heating of moist W'erly martime flow will create SBCAPE values in the range of 100-500 j/kg across the area highlighted by the fcst map ... so scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms look likely develop.

Overlap of stronger upper flow and 0-6km shear of 30-40 knots towards S England may allow multicell/line segment organisation of any storms that develop over southern England/Midlands/E Anglia ... capable of producing hail and strong wind gusts. Storms may organise into lines along troughs moving east in unstable flow, and where storms train there could be a risk of localised flooding in a few spots. Though development of strong storms will be limited by rather modest dew points and shallow cloud depths in the rPm airmass, so severe weather would appear unlikely. GFS develops 15-20 knots of 0-1km shear by evening across Midlands and E Anglia, so funnels and a weak tornado cannot be ruled-out here - especially where winds back ahead of troughs moving through ... though again the dew point spread may be restrictive for a tornado.

From Netweather.
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scott86
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« Reply #1 on: August 18, 2010, 12:27:25 am »

829 j/kg cape and -3 li for belfast tomorrow?? could be interesting
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martinastro
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« Reply #2 on: August 18, 2010, 12:40:25 am »

It looks interesting Scott doesn't it, no wind shear but even without it there should be heavy showers and some thunderstorms, hopefully nice photogenic cbs too  Smiley, good luck if your'e venturing out.
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martinastro
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« Reply #3 on: August 18, 2010, 12:42:49 am »

CAPE/LI charts for 15.00 from Netweather GFS

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paulster78
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« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2010, 01:12:00 am »

Quote
hopefully nice photogenic cbs too

Was thinking the same thing earlier tonight that i haven't seen much decent structure on any of this years storms so far, theres always been a lot of low and mid-level cloud around so an individual cell or TS would be nice.  Cape and LI values suggesting the Lough Neagh area as a possible target in the afternoon but hard to know.  Quite beefy showers already pushing into the west coast.
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martinastro
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« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2010, 01:16:38 am »

According to the IWN some of those overnight showers might produce isolated sferics, worth keeping an eye on those. During Wed I would be happy to get photogenic storm clouds, even if there's just a few rumbles, a nice white funnel over the Lough would be a better trophy though  Smiley, I hope we all catch something nice anyway, will be good to be chasing with the camera again, I hope a few convergence zones form, although none are mentioned in the forecast. ESTOFEX are going with storms so that's always a good thing, so far nothing from UKASF.
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martinastro
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« Reply #6 on: August 18, 2010, 10:46:39 am »

Great convection visible already, even crisp towers at 09.00 and anvils. There's a huge cell with perfect anvil behind Slieve Gallion at the min.
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paulster78
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« Reply #7 on: August 18, 2010, 05:18:54 pm »

I wasnt able to travel too far today so kept local and drove to pigeon top.  Nothing too exciting here, a few heavy showers, seems all the action was further east and around lough Neagh.  Martin i hope you got onto some of those cells.  Smiley

Sferics chart:

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martinastro
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« Reply #8 on: August 18, 2010, 06:07:13 pm »

Hi Paul, just back, got your text but ran out of credit. I was at Lough Neagh on the W side at Ardboe Cross with Declan O'Doherty, we got 14 rumbles of thunder in total, some of them were great rumbling for a very long time and loud. Must have been 3 or 4 thunderstorms we saw. Structure was very poor though so images aren't great but nice towers and cbs all the same.
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paulster78
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« Reply #9 on: August 18, 2010, 08:38:45 pm »

Nice one Martin, I was looking at the sferics charts and wondered if you were at the Lough, at least you got some thunder.  It was a bit messy again today wasnt it with mid-level cloud obscuring any structure. I was sure this morning too that we would get a few nice isolated cells or storms popping up. Ah well might have better luck at the weekend.

This is the best i could come up with today.

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martinastro
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« Reply #10 on: August 18, 2010, 08:46:59 pm »

Nice capture Paul, good towers and showers falling, glad to know you went out chasing and got images even if you didn't get thunder. Sorry for not being able to reply to the text message, darn credit ran out at the wrong moment, I had been texting all morning. It was a bit messy at times however the early to late morning period was very good, major anvil at that time which we watched from home, text book perfect cell. We could also see those N coast storms from S of Maghera during the evening - those were really big cells.

Conor was reporting thunder from Draperstown today.
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paulster78
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« Reply #11 on: August 19, 2010, 07:31:18 pm »

Thanks Martin, yeah there was a nice looking cell near Coleraine at one stage that was producing the goods. Gfs is chopping and changing at every run for the next few days  Undecided
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martinastro
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« Reply #12 on: August 19, 2010, 09:18:06 pm »

There seems to be a slight risk of storms and maybe a tornado tommorow across Ireland/N. Ireland, Britain and Scotland, for us it will be early in the morning with threat gone by mid day.
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