Thunderstorm Outlook - Mon Sept 1st

[martinastro]

Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 01 Sep 2008 06:00 to Tue 02 Sep 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 31 Aug 2008 21:59
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER
SYNOPSIS

A mid/upper-level low over the Kola Peninsula moves southeastward across the Barentz Sea into the northern Russian Plain, thereby drawing cold air at low-level southward across Finland and Russian Karelia. A upper-level ridge streching from southern Norway via the German/Polish border to Hungary moves eastward. A vertically-stacked cyclone across the British Isles moves slowly eastward, while a west to southwesterly jet streak enters the southern British Isles ans spreads northeastward across the southern North Sea.

DISCUSSION

Central North European Plain, Alps...

Behind the upper-level ridge, an axis of low-level warm and moist air follows, which will destabilize during the day. About 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected to form and locally this might even be a bit more. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to form primarily during the mid- and late afternoon. Weak vertical wind shear suggests that the storms will likely be poorly-organized multicells with a very limited severe weather threat. Apart from local downpours and some, mostly small, hail, severe weather is not anticipated so that a threat level is not issued at the moment.

Ireland, SW Scotland...

Rather widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to intensify across Ireland and later into Scotland. Weak shear and weak instability should preclude any organized severe weather.

[stuart2588]

convection starting here at min in county antrim.

Was in Larne this morning and it was the same there.

Keeping the fingers crossed for some thunder.

Stu

[Steveo74]

Thunder here now (14:11hrs) Heavy rain....  Dromore Co.Down 

[John9929]

No thunder here yet but some mighty clouds and mammatus! Martin has reported serious lightning from Maghera.

[brianb]

Lightning seen 2 miles West of Bushmills 1510 BST. Convection cell appears to be moving away to the East Don't much care where it goes to provided it's all gone by dusk .... and stays away till dawn .... no point in having "pretty" clouds during the night when they can't be seen

[Paul]

Only a few distant rumbles of thunder here in Antrim, however a colleague has just retruned from Cookstown with tales of fierce lightning and flash flooding in the Ballyronan area - what a difference a few miles can make!

P.

[stuart2588]

I have got some shots of the convection in Newtownabbey today.

I am not 100 percent sure but I could swear I saw a funnel cloud today.

i have taken alot of pics of it but i might have been too far away.  I will have a look very shortly.

It was a huge cb with nice gust front and heavy rain in front of it.

[martinastro]

Thunderstorms here all afternoon from giant multicells and fantastic anvils. Great blue c-g and I-C bolts and the most frightening thunder I've heard this year. Amazing convection around!

Radar shows more cells moving in. Seriously photogenic stuff around at the min.

[martinastro]

Thanks everyone for the convective reports!. I hope you got some images.

Steven, any images of the funnel?. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a funnel today. I was expecting a tornado from some of those cells today. Not much wind shear though. Same thing again for Tues  . BBC are favouring eastern areas most.  Keep the cameras close 

[Steveo74]

No Martin! Lots of scud suckers and rotation but no funnels    I Pulled over on my way home on the M1 just facing Lough Neagh, there was 2 massive anvils with thick curtains of rain and big updraughts along the horizon.  I was totally stupid today as I forgot my camera  Looks like you had a good day... 

[stuart2588]

I got a pic of the funnel but it has turned out terrible as my dads camera only has little zoom.

I put the pics in my wee report.

Stu