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Thunderstorm Potential UK/Ireland - Sun April 25th

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Author Topic: Thunderstorm Potential UK/Ireland - Sun April 25th  (Read 227 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« on: April 22, 2010, 03:11:11 pm »

GFS seems very keen on an unstable day across much of Ireland, N. Ireland, Britain, Wales etc on Sunday April 25th with 1000 CAPE and LI's between -3 and -4 along with an upper level trough and temps between 16 and 18 C. Assuming this doesn't get downgraded in a major way it seems this could be the first chance of decent thunderstorms over the UK this Spring. GFS is probably over cooking the CAPE, however the set-up still looks promising even if this is the case.

« Last Edit: April 22, 2010, 05:44:31 pm by martinastro » Report Spam   Logged

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markt
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« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2010, 07:00:32 pm »

Looks promising! A nice thunderstorm would be good  Smiley
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martinastro
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« Reply #2 on: April 23, 2010, 05:12:04 pm »

Here's the latest GFS, still looking good for Sun. I will be chasing this day for sure if the charts hold together

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paulster78
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« Reply #3 on: April 23, 2010, 05:54:04 pm »

I like the way this is shaping up for Sunday!   Dont know if I'll be able to get away to chase though, might get lucky and get a storm roll by the house.  At the minute anything would be better than this boring grey cloud.
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markt
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« Reply #4 on: April 24, 2010, 12:41:54 pm »

Excellent stuff!  A decent sunday thunderstorm would make up for the horribly milky skies I currently have on saturday...
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martinastro
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« Reply #5 on: April 24, 2010, 06:39:05 pm »

Blimey, latest GFS looks fantastic...

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markt
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« Reply #6 on: April 24, 2010, 07:05:06 pm »

There's some bright echoes heading your way on the radar Martin, should be with you after dark...
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martinastro
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« Reply #7 on: April 24, 2010, 07:07:02 pm »

Cheers Mark, I have my eye on them (via radar), some strong echoes over the Republic, will probably turn cold and weak by the time they get here, then again one never knows for sure. Worth watching indeed, thanks.
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paulster78
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« Reply #8 on: April 24, 2010, 08:21:45 pm »

Thats looks brilliant!!  I was expecting a downgrade at this stage but theres a slight upgrade if anything.  Would be happy with values like these in mid-summer, bring it on! Grin
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martinastro
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« Reply #9 on: April 24, 2010, 10:16:44 pm »

Outlook from Tony Gilbert...



Moderate risk of Thundery Showers UK & Ireland 09Z-21Z Sun 25th April 2010

UKMO Fax chart continues to show the development of a post frontal surface trough. High over the continent funnels moist unstable air from the Azores. Temps across the UK & Ireland expected to rise quite rapidly from late morning onwards. Destabilising the atmosphere further as a deep upper trough nudges east aloft.

Thundery showers look to be on the cards from very early on to the west though the best instability will build further east later in the day. Lapse rates could become very steep indeed. Restrictions include weak vertical shear and heavy mid level moisture. Though GFS currently favours better potential instability derived by a layer of dry air across the midlands and south of this region.

North Sea SST are around a meager 7 deg C. If the wind remain light along the east coast then an onshore breeze could in fact develop by late afternoon creating numerous convergence zones. It will be within this region that the odd funnel/ waterspout report will be possible.

PS. In theory probably the best storm chase day so far this year with slow moving thundery showers. Though severe weather unlikely.

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martinastro
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« Reply #10 on: April 24, 2010, 10:48:40 pm »

This just keeps getting better, here's the latest - 1300 CAPE and -4 LI around Lough Neagh!

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Padraig OBrien
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« Reply #11 on: April 24, 2010, 11:45:10 pm »

about an hour ago a pretty intense echo just passed east through the neighbouring county from here didnt observe lightning though
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martinastro
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« Reply #12 on: April 24, 2010, 11:57:26 pm »

Watching that one on the radar Padraig, they look strong, atd sferics showing no c-gs, will keep an eye on it as it moves north.
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Padraig OBrien
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« Reply #13 on: April 25, 2010, 12:06:57 am »

ye it looked intense Martin im hopefull for tomorow though once the sun gets out thats the main thing i hope +1

Just and update from this morning some hefty showers crossing ROI from West to East one just to the north of me. The problem is that it is too flippin cloudy.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2010, 09:06:01 am by Padraig OBrien » Report Spam   Logged

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martinastro
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« Reply #14 on: April 25, 2010, 10:47:00 am »

Chance of funnels over NE N. Ireland today due to Sea breeze according to Paul Knightly from TORRO
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