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Convective Outlook - UK - Sat April 3rd

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martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« on: April 03, 2010, 03:41:51 am »



Storm Forecast

Valid: Sat 03 Apr 2010 06:00 to Sun 04 Apr 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 02 Apr 2010 23:53
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 1 was issued for NW France for a chance of a tornado and marginally large hail.

A level 1 was issued for E Bulgaria/NW Turkey for a chance of marginally large hail.

SYNOPSIS

A low pressure area centered over southern England advects an unstable airmass into western Europe behind its mid level cold front, which lies over central France into Germany. From the Atlantic a shortwave trough arrives to France with an associated cloud band taking the characteristics of a second cold front. The system will move slowly to the east. A larger upper trough passes over the Iberian Peninsula.
A jetstream meanders around the low over Spain, France, Germany and bending back south to Bulgaria where it overruns some unstable air.

DISCUSSION

southern UK...

with winds dropping to very low speeds north of the low pressure center, and persistent convergence and relatively high values of 0-3 km CAPE, the situation may be favorable for an isolated spout-type tornado or funnels.
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