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Convective Outlook - Ireland & UK - Fri April 2nd

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Author Topic: Convective Outlook - Ireland & UK - Fri April 2nd  (Read 86 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« on: April 01, 2010, 10:17:54 pm »



Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 02 Apr 2010 06:00 to Sat 03 Apr 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 01 Apr 2010 19:46
Forecaster: TUSCHY
SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Near neutral NAO conditions are present during the forecast with low geopotential heights over most parts of Europe as extensive cyclonic vortex persists over / north of UK/Scotland. Weak geopotential height gradients persist over the Mediterranean and E-Europe with cool mid-levels atop regionally better BL moisture, enhancing the thundersorm probabilities over certain areas, mainly SE-Europe and S-Norway/Sweden. Shear/instability remains weak at best, but an isolated large hail event over Bulgaria can't be ruled out. However, there is no indication of anything more organized, so no level will be issued.

A cold front crosses UK and NW/N-France during the daytime hours from west to east with a classic postfrontal shower/thunderstorm set-up. A plume of well mixed maritime air and temporarily diabatic heating support adequate updraft strength during peak time heating for showers/thunderstorms. Marginal hail and strong wind gusts accompany those storms with the first risk probably being the more dominant one, given the lowering WBZ level. An isolated waterspout/tornado may develop mainly along the S/SW coast of UK, as LL lapse rates increase somewhat, but there are no indications for a more elvated tornado risk. Onshore activity diminishes after sunset with ongoing activity offshore (e.g. the English Channel). A large thunderstorm area may be the best choice with such a pattern and during a season, where insolation may assist in initiation over various places. Isolated thunderstorms may occur well to the east of the highlighted area over central France, but coverage will be negligible.

Some models indicate a low-end chance for isolated thunderstorms over parts of the Alps, but recent snowfall and mostly snow covered mountains may suppress heating/anabatic winds enough to stick with no thunderstorm area.
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Padraig OBrien
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« Reply #1 on: April 01, 2010, 11:59:23 pm »

Just watched your videos Martin of the snowstorm amazing      truly amazing i would have chickened out and turned back
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« Reply #2 on: April 02, 2010, 07:14:28 pm »

Great day here although no sparks i cuaght some mamma, shelf cloud and a funnel trying to develop. Meanwhile a magnificant  rope funnel was caught in Co Westmeath great pics on the IWN.
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martinastro
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« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2010, 02:59:59 pm »

Thanks very much for the heads up Padraig, I seen the images and it does look like a funnel cloud for sure, you got a nice lowering also, if that was spinning then it could be a tuba funnel. I've lost my password for the IWN site so haven't been able to post, must request a password reminder. There's an active cold front crossing Ireland on Mon morning, tornado and supercell params are there, one to watch.
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« Reply #4 on: April 03, 2010, 06:35:06 pm »

No bothers Martin actually i forgot to mention a member of the IWN thats a few miles from me caught some stunning mamma right over his house i dont know if you saw them on the website but heres the link. Look forward to that cold front indeed  , had some nicely sized hail today on the edge of a shower that when approaching boasted some stunning view of mature cb's that I normally see in the Summer. By the way Martin is that pic on your website of Carhill near Swatragh went through there with a mate on our way to Portrush
 
http://www.irelandsweather.com/forum/weather-pictures/02-apr-2010-mammatus-display/
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