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Late March T-storm Potential UK & Ireland 2010

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Author Topic: Late March T-storm Potential UK & Ireland 2010  (Read 455 times)
Padraig OBrien
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« Reply #15 on: March 19, 2010, 10:43:09 pm »

Thanks for that Martin yes lets hope for a big upgrade
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Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #16 on: March 20, 2010, 12:07:07 am »

Big upgrade tonight Padraig for much of Ireland on Mon, also looks like some potential for S Ireland and Britain on Wed followed by Britain again on Fri. Hope this upgrade continues over the weekend.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=
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paulster78
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« Reply #17 on: March 20, 2010, 12:30:49 am »

Yes hopefully it does the trend looks good now and has been more or less showing this setup for a few days now Smiley
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JohnC
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« Reply #18 on: March 20, 2010, 09:41:49 pm »

Martin - What's the minimum CAPE value that would be meaningful ?
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paulster78
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« Reply #19 on: March 21, 2010, 11:16:53 pm »

Still some action possible tomorrow according to latest GFS for N.Ireland with 300-400 CAPE and LI of -1. Also showing potential for Friday but thats too far off for any reliable forecast.
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Padraig OBrien
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« Reply #20 on: March 21, 2010, 11:53:11 pm »

had a lovely day today highs of 15.4c nice and mild a little bit of convection in the late afternoon had some big drops of rain falling out of nowhere but very light

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Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #21 on: March 22, 2010, 01:58:20 am »

HI Paul, ESTOFEX have a t-storm risk out for N. Ireland and Scotland on Mon here...

http://www.estofex.org/

As for minimum CAPE? - it always depends on the other ingredients. 2000 CAPE would be amazing, however 100 to 200 CAPE in a highly sheared enviornment could produce severe winds and a tornado which has happened many times before in the UK. There were even 3 funnel clouds in the Republic a few years back with 50 CAPE.
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Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #22 on: March 22, 2010, 02:21:02 am »

In more detail...



Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 22 Mar 2010 06:00 to Tue 23 Mar 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 22 Mar 2010 00:00
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK
No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS

An upper cut-off low enters the W Mediterranean on Monday morning, moving towards Italy. Over central Europe, conditions will become more stable as an upper ridge approaches from SW Europe. Over the North Atlantic, a large low pressure system affects Ireland, the British Isles and Iceland during the period.

DISCUSSION

...N Ireland, Scotland...

Near the upper cold core of an embedded trough west of Ireland, upper level cooling will lead to a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Strong QG forcing and enhanced deep layer shear (20 - 30 m/s) may lead to a narrow convective line that will cross the area from the west to the east during the morning / afternoon. Some isolated convectively enhanced wind gusts are expected to occur but a level 1 seems not warranted, though.
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paulster78
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« Reply #23 on: March 22, 2010, 12:28:59 pm »

Just been blasted with hail and some impressive gusts of wind as the leading edge of this shower hit here.
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Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #24 on: March 22, 2010, 12:39:37 pm »

Tornado discussion from TORRO for us today..

Lightning already in W Ireland
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« Reply #25 on: March 22, 2010, 02:00:17 pm »

Quite a beefy hail shower has just passed lisburn, some of it near pea sized and strong wind gusts but no lightning.
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brianb
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« Reply #26 on: March 22, 2010, 03:41:17 pm »

Yeah, vicious showers here too h8h8h8h8h8
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Paul
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« Reply #27 on: March 22, 2010, 04:39:49 pm »

Magnificent Mammatus clouds over Antrim at lunchtime - pics when I get home! Also the view across the Lough looked pretty stormy earlier.
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Padraig OBrien
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« Reply #28 on: March 22, 2010, 06:08:02 pm »

what a day its been here had some very heavy squalls today both with hail, but it was the second one that got interesting had very heavy hail in it windows damaged 3 miles west of me now just few reports mind you. Heard a a few rumbles of thunder about two o clock and then reports of thunderstorm over Dublin
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paulster78
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« Reply #29 on: March 22, 2010, 10:44:23 pm »

It was great to see some interesting weather hit our shores again with a squall line passing over here this morning producing some good downdraft gusts and decent hail, this was followed by a number of showers into the afternoon and a fair few lightning strikes recorded across Ireland and the UK including some in the vicinity of Belfast Lough. I wasn't able to get out to get any images but just grabbed a few from the house.





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