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ESTOFEX severe weather forecast for Ukraine - Aug.25

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Author Topic: ESTOFEX severe weather forecast for Ukraine - Aug.25  (Read 291 times)
Roman White
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« on: August 25, 2008, 09:28:25 am »


Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 25 Aug 2008 06:00 to Tue 26 Aug 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 24 Aug 2008 20:10
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

On Monday at 06 UTC... the mid and upper level flow across Europe is predominantly not very strong and zonal. Over the waters between Scotland and Iceland, a broad and intense cyclonic vortex is present, that moves slowly eastward. A sharp, intense trough stretches from Lithuania to the Krimean peninsula and translates east northeastward during the day.

DISCUSSION

NE Ukraine, Belgorod, Voronezh, Kursk...

Ahead of the intense trough, a cold front is initially located along the Belorussian/Russian border across Ukraine to just east of Odesa. A 15 m/s southerly low level jet is expected ahead of the front, yielding relatively strong low-level shear. Deep-layer shear of about 20 m/s should be present also. A number of storms, likely linearly organized is expected to develop during the moring and/or early afternoon. Low storm-relatively helicity will inhibit updraft rotation to some extent, but one or two tornadoes are not ruled out. Additionally localized severe gusts are possible. The relatively weak CAPE should limit the large hail threat, but some 2-3 cm hail is possible. The line should cross the Ukrainian/Russian border during the afternoon and proceed east northeastward before moving out of the forecast area during the late evening.
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Roman White
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« Reply #1 on: August 25, 2008, 09:37:00 am »

Nothing as scary as pedicted here in Poltava.

Yesterday (Aug.24) late evening I heard some remote thunder.

Today an intense, but not constantly falling rain falled between 2AM-10AM (EEST). +20C at 8AM. The cold front passed at nearly 10AM.
At the moment (11:35AM) it is +23C, sky is 80% covered with Sc, possible rain in north.

The front is moving NE, so it must be clear here for the rest of the day. Next night must also be clear, so I will observe an asteroidal occultation and possibly try to find C/2007 W1 and to watch for some meteor activity.
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martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #2 on: August 25, 2008, 03:10:10 pm »

On many occasions these forecasts never come to pass because one or two incredients are missing which stop the formation of storms. With strong wind shear and an upper jet, the potential for severe weather was there but instability must not have been great enough. Who knows for sure.

I seen a flash of lightning here last night around 02.00 BST and it was bone dry and never rained once. This was strange because lightning was not forecast at all.
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Roman White
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« Reply #3 on: August 25, 2008, 03:59:04 pm »

It got even worse today. After noon it became completely overcast with Sc and maybe it rained some kms away from me. Temperature not rised, but dropped to +21C.
But after 5PM the clouds broke and now it is fair with some Sc, so the next night must be clear  Smiley
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