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Significant Storm For Ireland & UK Sat-Sun Nov 21st/22nd

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Author Topic: Significant Storm For Ireland & UK Sat-Sun Nov 21st/22nd  (Read 1367 times)
paulster78
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« Reply #30 on: November 22, 2009, 01:21:07 am »

Check out the hook winding up just off the west coast, pretty mean looking.

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martinastro
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« Reply #31 on: November 22, 2009, 01:37:24 am »

wow! - that looks nasty!
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Padraig OBrien
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« Reply #32 on: November 22, 2009, 07:26:27 am »

The latest from Estofex

Storm Forecast




Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 22 Nov 2009 06:00 to Mon 23 Nov 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 22 Nov 2009 05:35
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK
A level 1 was issued for parts of the Bay of Biscay, S UK, NW France and the British Channel mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for N Ireland and N UK mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

The dominant feature for convective activity on Sunday is a low pressure system over the British Isles. A 965 hPa surface low has developed ahead of a shortwave trough west of Ireland. Another upper trough over the Irish Sea will affect most parts of the UK and the North Sea during the period and is associated with the cold front of the surface low. This cold front stretches from the Strait of Gibraltar via southwestern France and the Netherlands towards S Norway at 06 UTC. West of the Bay of Biscay, a small area of convective clouds is associated with a weak thermal wave and an upper vort-max south of the low pressure system, affecting W France and S UK in the next few hours.

An upper ridge over the central Mediterranean will provide stable and warm conditions in most parts of the Mediterranean and central Europe.

DISCUSSION

...Bay of Biscay, W / NW France, British Channel, S UK...

About 500 J/kg MLCAPE are forecast in the vicinity of an upper vort-max which will cross the area between 06 UTC and 12 UTC from the west to the east. In this environment, strong vertical shear (20 m/s DLS, 15 m/s LLS) is expected given 30 m/s at 850 hPa and up to 40 m/s at 500 hPa. Convective cells will tend to merge into small bowing segments with severe wind gusts as main threat. SRH1 / SRH3 increases to values near 200 / 300 mē/sē over W / NW France and some short-lived mesocyclones are likely. Locally enhanced LLS near the coastlines may allow a few isolated tornadoes with an isolated strong (F2 - F3) tornado not completely ruled out. There is no area with much higher probability of tornadoes in the models which precludes a LVL2 in this case. The associated upper level feature will undergo substantial weakening after landfall and the threat of tornadoes will diminish in the eastern parts of this LVL1 area. Nevertheless, isolated convectively enhanced severe wind gusts will be possible there.

...Ireland, N England, Scotland...

Another area with low-end instability is located in the wake of the bent-back occlusion west of Ireland. Multicell storms may organise into narrow lines with bowing segments that will cross parts of Ireland / northern UK on Sunday morning / afternoon. Tornadoes appear less likely than in the other area of discussion as deep layer shear reaches only values of 10 - 15 m/s which is probably not sufficient for deep mesocyclones but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as strong ( >15 m/s ) LLS and about 300 mē/sē SRH1 are forecast. The main threat in this region will be damaging (33 m/s) gusts that are convectively enhanced. Most of the wind should be due to the intense gradient flow with 35 - 40 m/s forecast at 850 hPa. As the surface low occludes, the severe wind gust threat will decrease to the northeast.

« Last Edit: November 22, 2009, 07:30:05 am by Padraig OBrien » Report Spam   Logged

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paulster78
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« Reply #33 on: November 22, 2009, 11:39:54 am »

Some real heavy and squally showers hitting me now
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markt
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« Reply #34 on: November 22, 2009, 12:52:53 pm »

This certainly is some rough weather we're having at the moment!   Shocked
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martinastro
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« Reply #35 on: November 22, 2009, 04:47:43 pm »

I have been up to Lough Neagh in Ballyronan and there's plenty of flooding, the jeti's are covered in water and the shore looks like a tsunami had hit it with debris washed so far inland that logs and sticks have passed beyond the swings, there must have been serious flooding there recently. It sure is a wild day, although  extremely disappointing with a convective point of view, I didn't see any convection at all, clouds just looked like thick soup. Quite a let down so far...more wet weather on the way though so anything is possible.
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Padraig OBrien
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« Reply #36 on: November 22, 2009, 05:55:19 pm »

Had some flooding experience myself today  i was literally standing in the middle of a lake
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paulster78
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« Reply #37 on: November 22, 2009, 10:54:11 pm »

As Martin said bit of a no-show for any convection today, thought at the very least id see a few updrafts or cbs but just a blanket of cloud.  Angry   Although there was some heavy rain and impressive gusts associated with the showers. It was probably a lot worse cause all i did was look out at it through the window.
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martinastro
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« Reply #38 on: November 22, 2009, 11:21:46 pm »

I agree with you Paul, it was a damp squip and such a let down after that big build up earlier in the week. I was looking at the CAPE charts last night and there was no instability over NI at all so I couldn't understand why we where included in the risk maps.

Drove around after dark taking video of the gales but that was about it apart from some heavy showers and squalls. Seen one dark anvil in the dusk sky going over the Moon but that was the end of it.
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brianb
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« Reply #39 on: November 23, 2009, 11:32:31 am »

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it was a damp squip
A bit more than "damp". Rainfall during the "shower" that ran continuously from 10:30 am till late evening was around 40mm, more than the whole of the previous week combined. And the wind ... yeah, we've had worse, but here it's very unusual to get such a sustained, gusty wind from that direction. It's penetrated the seals on my kitchen skylight, first time I've had a problem in 16 years.

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such a let down
I'm very grateful it was no more severe than it actually was.
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