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Significant Storm For Ireland & UK Sat-Sun Nov 21st/22nd

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Author Topic: Significant Storm For Ireland & UK Sat-Sun Nov 21st/22nd  (Read 1367 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #15 on: November 21, 2009, 04:04:18 pm »



SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 2009/009

A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 14:30GMT on Saturday 21st November 2009

Valid from/until: 14:30 - 15:00GMT on Saturday 21st/Monday 23rd November 2009 for the following regions

**NOTE THAT THIS IS AN UPGRADE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

Parts of (see map)

Eire

N Ireland

THREATS

Wind gusts to 70mph; hail 10-15mm diameter; CG lightning; isolated tornadoes

DISCUSSION

Unstable, strongly sheared environment will be in place across the area for the next couple of days (hence the unusually long validity period. This will bring showers and thunderstorms from time to time, with a risk of severe wind gusts. This is especially true on Sunday as a deep low pressure system moves through, although there are some question marks over how much of the activity will be convective as this moves through. In addition, hail and CG lightning are likely. A small risk of tornadoes exists although the main risk will be strong winds.

PLEASE NOTE THAT FURTHER WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED LATER ON, FOR PARTS OF GREAT BRITAIN...A RISK OF TORNADOES/STRONG WINDS EXISTS FOR SOUTHERN PARTS LATER TONIGHT AND FOR A TIME TOMORROW MORNING

Forecaster: RPK.
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martinastro
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« Reply #16 on: November 21, 2009, 04:20:03 pm »

Some serious t-storms moving up Ireland now - here's the lightning...

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Padraig OBrien
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« Reply #17 on: November 21, 2009, 04:29:43 pm »

Thanks Martin for above,

Heavy shower here atm small rumble of thunder before it came in distance really squally
 behind it
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martinastro
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« Reply #18 on: November 21, 2009, 06:20:32 pm »

Seen big convective lines at dusk over Maghera passing by the Moon, they were the left overs of that thunderstorm earlier in the SW, got some images of the clouds. This could be a late night, I suspect distant storms will be seen for 100's of miles, at least the flashes will be visible. Sun might be a chase day!

Just seen RTE news, the flooding in the Republic is unbelievable!...more bad weather into next week too. This is fast becoming an historic weather event.
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paulster78
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« Reply #19 on: November 21, 2009, 06:58:02 pm »

Those are really devastating floods its going to be hard times for alot of people coming up to Christmas.  Yeah Martin tomorrow looking good for some nice showers/t-storms, must get the batteries charged.
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« Reply #20 on: November 21, 2009, 07:03:54 pm »

Paul, check out the sferics charts, the entire W coast of Ireland and Atlantic sea board is packed with lightning. Someone is getting a good show tonight, hoping they will move inland, in either case looking forward to some night flashes among the stars. Hoping to see something on Sun, I would be happy enough with a good gust front. With that phenomenal shear around the enviornment will be perfect for tornadoes if strong convection can form. Best of luck.

Yes, the situation in the ROI and Cumbria is horrific!
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martinastro
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« Reply #21 on: November 21, 2009, 07:06:43 pm »



SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 2009/010 (PLEASE NOTE SW009 IS STILL IN EFFECT)

A TORRO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH (AREA B) has been issued at 17:45GMT on Saturday 21st November 2009

Valid from/until: 17:45 - 23:59GMT on Saturday 21st/Sunday 22nd November 2009 for the following regions

Parts of (see map)

W Scotland

Wales

W England

S England

THREATS

Wind gusts to 60-70mph; hail 10-15mm diameter; CG lightning; isolated tornadoes

DISCUSSION

Unstable, strongly sheared environment will be in place across the area for the next couple of days (hence the unusually long validity period. This will bring showers and thunderstorms from time to time, with a risk of severe wind gusts. A small risk of tornadoes exists too. A trough will cross southern parts of England tomorrow morning, enhancing the tornado risk. A tornado watch may be issued later this evening to cover this risk.

FORECASTER: RPK

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paulster78
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« Reply #22 on: November 21, 2009, 07:18:56 pm »

Wow, thats alot of lightning. might go out to see if i can view any distance flashes.
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martinastro
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« Reply #23 on: November 21, 2009, 07:20:33 pm »

Go for it, I might try that too. Best of luck.

here's the storm on SAT24 - beautiful. You can see the anvils on those t-storms over Ireland! The big one to the SW must have been a severe storm, check out the anvil about 3 times the length of Lough Neagh with an overshooting top.

« Last Edit: November 21, 2009, 07:22:49 pm by martinastro » Report Spam   Logged

martinastro
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« Reply #24 on: November 21, 2009, 07:30:03 pm »

latest lightning

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Padraig OBrien
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« Reply #25 on: November 21, 2009, 07:56:59 pm »

Observing a lot of lightning flashes from a storm out in the irish sea huge anvil on it lighting up
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martinastro
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« Reply #26 on: November 21, 2009, 08:03:16 pm »

Thanks for the report, those look like organized multicells, that's now W and E Irish coastal regions getting storms now. Some of those are probably severe, just a pity they are not inland. Tempted to go out to look for flashes now.
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« Reply #27 on: November 21, 2009, 09:01:50 pm »

Was about to head out but alot of cloud has rolled in here so visibility not so good. Hoping the freshening wind will blow a few of those cells close to the sligo coastline a bit further inland. Been a long time since i seen a night time storm.
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« Reply #28 on: November 21, 2009, 11:20:46 pm »

I drove out to the middle of nowhere and did a long cold watch, only seen one flash of lightning to the south, however the sky was darn dark with incredible stars, I was watching for aurora activity too. Car was shaking pretty good in the wind. Hoping to see something cool on Sun, car and camera are at the ready.
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martinastro
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« Reply #29 on: November 21, 2009, 11:21:52 pm »

Sunday's outlook from Tony Gilbert...



Slight Risk of isolated Thunderstorms & Severe Gusts UK & Ireland 00Z Sun- 12Z Mon

Slight Risk of Tornado Development central south UK through to E. Anglia 10Z-17Z Sunday

A complex forecast with several areas at risk of thunderstorms with hail and severe gusts, though pretty much spread out over a large area. Regions at risk of isolated stronger convection are relatively sparse in nature and would be almost impossible to mark with separate convective boxes. Prime attention ATM is given to the risk of a tornado event red box during Sunday. Sharp surface trough expected to develop along the English Channel during Sun morning triggering some heavy rain and convective showers inland within a highly sheared environment. PV is stacked vertically and a breakaway upper trough influences lift in the region. ATM there looks to be some restriction regarding the dry intrusion which looks to remain offshore. This is the missing link and is the reason behind issuing a 'Slight' risk instead of a  'Moderate' risk for tornado genesis!....the potential here nevertheless should be regarded as high priority; Streamlining is actually shown to bow around part of this trough. This is not a common prediction for surface troughing as I can recall. Possible suggestive of some very localised low pressure building at surface! The potential for low level directional shear under these conditions could be exceptional!!

A further risk extended into Mon morning as a cold front and TP moves east bringing another round of thundery showers along the English Channel. Though based on a calculation of storm steering winds this potentially strong convection looks to remain just offshore! A small variation in wind vector could just as easily bring this lot ashore am Mon.

« Last Edit: November 21, 2009, 11:28:51 pm by martinastro » Report Spam   Logged



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