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Significant Storm For Ireland & UK Sat-Sun Nov 21st/22nd

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Author Topic: Significant Storm For Ireland & UK Sat-Sun Nov 21st/22nd  (Read 1520 times)
Martin Mc Kenna
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Maghera, N. Ireland

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« on: November 21, 2009, 11:41:25 am »

UKww Weather Warning for Heavy rain and severe gales

Issued Saturday 21/11/2009 1015BST

Areas affected: N & W half of Wales, NW England, SW & W Scotland, N Ireland

Valid from: 1200GMT Saturday 21st November - 2359GMT Sunday 22nd November


General evolution:

The weather during this Warning period will be dominated by a major, deep (962mb Sunday 1800) Atlantic low pressure system that will move NE towards NW Scotland later Sunday. On its southern flank, more moist SW winds will bring fronts eastwards during the forecast period. High pressure over Europe means that a steep pressure-gradient will remain a feature throughout.

Wet and windy again sums up the forecast with gale to severe gale-force winds causing problems at times: however, the key feature is further heavy rainfall that will occur initially in the forecast period. Latest model guidance suggests totals of 40-45mm for W Wales and NW England but the Lake District and hills of SW Scotland: adding in a factor for enhancement over the mountains and these figures could be exceeded by 50% or more giving 80mm+ in places. The ground is already saturated so that run-off will be very high, leading to further widespread standing water on roads and rivers/streams in full spate. Prone flood-plain areas are very likely to see more -possibly serious- flooding leading to disruption . Road travel is likely to be adversely affected and driving conditions will be hazardous throughout the period. Winds will increase in the far W and NW later on Sunday with severe gales affecting northernmost N Ireland and W Scotland with gusts to 65-70mph possible.

This forecast period ends on the evening of Sunday 22nd November but readers should be aware that another round of severe weather looks likely to affect western & NW parts again by midweek with further rain & very windy conditions a cause for concern - more on that nearer the time.

Issued by DJW for UKww, 1015GMT 21/11/2009
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