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Significant Storm For Ireland & UK Sat-Sun Nov 21st/22nd

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Author Topic: Significant Storm For Ireland & UK Sat-Sun Nov 21st/22nd  (Read 1367 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« on: November 16, 2009, 04:31:35 pm »

New thread started to cover a very interesting situation for the weekend. GFS, and other models, are currently predicting a significant Atlantic storm expected to affect Ireland, N. Ireland and Scotland, and perhaps W. UK on Fri/Sat. Gales inland and severe gales over coastal areas are possible. It's s little far away yet but according to forecasters the models have been consistent with this feature. Wave prediction websites are also going for huge waves over SW Ireland which may attract surfers from around the world. Worth keeping an eye on this one.

Update, latest gfs indicates the storm could be even worse with hurricane force gusts over Scotland.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2009, 07:30:45 pm by martinastro » Report Spam   Logged

Padraig OBrien
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« Reply #1 on: November 16, 2009, 06:16:13 pm »

Some saying Hurricane winds for Dublin City!!!! Good lord
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martinastro
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« Reply #2 on: November 16, 2009, 06:41:16 pm »

I just hope it doesn't get downgraded, still 5 days to go....its' going to be wet and windy anyway no matter if there's a big storm or not.
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martinastro
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« Reply #3 on: November 16, 2009, 07:13:36 pm »

Latest GFS has moved the centre of the storm further S and E with 100mph winds for W. Ireland.

Check out the convective maps for N. Ireland and UK for Wed and Thur - the significant tornado parameter is black in colour with phenomenal wind shear...I've NEVER seen that before!!!.
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brianb
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« Reply #4 on: November 16, 2009, 07:13:56 pm »

Quote
its' going to be wet and windy anyway
Defeatist - I hope it's dry, calm & clear.
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martinastro
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« Reply #5 on: November 16, 2009, 07:20:23 pm »

lol, Brian, I very much doubt it will be dry and clear...but who knows...you could be correct. I noticed that the BBC Newsline weather stayed well clear from taking about the weekend.
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martinastro
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« Reply #6 on: November 16, 2009, 07:30:08 pm »

Never seen charts like these before!. There's a powerful tornado and supercell signature for nearly two days during mid week.

(images deleted)

All this means nothing of course unless there's instability and lift in the first place to generate cbs which can take advantage of shear.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2009, 09:46:00 pm by martinastro » Report Spam   Logged

Padraig OBrien
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« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2009, 09:15:44 pm »

If it does hit us that hard god help Ireland
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martinastro
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« Reply #8 on: November 16, 2009, 09:46:28 pm »

Check out the latest chart!

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jjb
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« Reply #9 on: November 16, 2009, 09:50:25 pm »

Looks like it is going to be rough for a ween of days good idea to keep a  camera happy just in case something happens.
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markt
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« Reply #10 on: November 16, 2009, 10:36:45 pm »

Crikey, sounds rough!  Will keep my eye on that one...
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« Reply #11 on: November 17, 2009, 04:11:51 am »

This is damn exciting stuff at the minute but id say the models will never hold for fri/sat and we'll end up with some drizzle!  (hope im wrong tho  Smiley )
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martinastro
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« Reply #12 on: November 18, 2009, 01:34:14 am »

This is the latest, if this chart actually came to pass there would be risk of loss of life in SW Ireland...



However, as Paul said, these are just models and are not to be trusted this far out...we could just end up with rain on our face...but let's wait and see.
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martinastro
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« Reply #13 on: November 20, 2009, 04:18:32 pm »

A discussion is started for this coming Sat/Sun convective outlook for UK & Ireland.

 Period of interest;

Current forecast synopsis would suggest potential for a split front during late Sat night into Sun morning. Then post frontal troughing through the Sunday period. Whilst the UKMO synopsis no longer shows a defined split along the frontal boundary the GFS model would tend to differ for later within the passage of the cold front; SE UK. The secondary 'surface' feature looks to develop within a vorticity rich environment with better instability potential.

A number of surface troughs are progged to then traverse both the UK & Ireland through Sunday under continued strong vertical shear profiles and deep upper cold pooling aloft.

Certainly another windy and convective weekend in store, with the potential for thundery activity!

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martinastro
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« Reply #14 on: November 21, 2009, 11:41:25 am »

UKww Weather Warning for Heavy rain and severe gales


Issued Saturday 21/11/2009 1015BST

Areas affected: N & W half of Wales, NW England, SW & W Scotland, N Ireland

Valid from: 1200GMT Saturday 21st November - 2359GMT Sunday 22nd November


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

General evolution:


The weather during this Warning period will be dominated by a major, deep (962mb Sunday 1800) Atlantic low pressure system that will move NE towards NW Scotland later Sunday. On its southern flank, more moist SW winds will bring fronts eastwards during the forecast period. High pressure over Europe means that a steep pressure-gradient will remain a feature throughout.


Forecast:
Wet and windy again sums up the forecast with gale to severe gale-force winds causing problems at times: however, the key feature is further heavy rainfall that will occur initially in the forecast period. Latest model guidance suggests totals of 40-45mm for W Wales and NW England but the Lake District and hills of SW Scotland: adding in a factor for enhancement over the mountains and these figures could be exceeded by 50% or more giving 80mm+ in places. The ground is already saturated so that run-off will be very high, leading to further widespread standing water on roads and rivers/streams in full spate. Prone flood-plain areas are very likely to see more -possibly serious- flooding leading to disruption . Road travel is likely to be adversely affected and driving conditions will be hazardous throughout the period. Winds will increase in the far W and NW later on Sunday with severe gales affecting northernmost N Ireland and W Scotland with gusts to 65-70mph possible.

This forecast period ends on the evening of Sunday 22nd November but readers should be aware that another round of severe weather looks likely to affect western & NW parts again by midweek with further rain & very windy conditions a cause for concern - more on that nearer the time.
 

Issued by DJW for UKww, 1015GMT 21/11/2009
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