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Possible Stormy Spell 13th to 19th Nov

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Author Topic: Possible Stormy Spell 13th to 19th Nov  (Read 3277 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #75 on: November 15, 2009, 11:09:01 pm »

Mon outlook....



Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 16 Nov 2009 06:00 to Tue 17 Nov 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 15 Nov 2009 22:22
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK
A level 1 has been issued for Portugal and W Spain mainly for excessive rainfall and severe gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

An upper longwave trough over the central N Atlantic will shift eastward during the period. Ahead of this trough, a 90 m/s jet streak stretches from extreme NW Iberia towards N Germany. In the vicinity of this jet streak, a developing surface low centered NW of Scotland will move northeastward. The cold front of this low will cross western France in the early morning and move eastward while weakening. Most showers and thunderstorms on Monday should be associated with the upper trough / cold front. Further upstream, a plume of warm and moist air is advected from the Canary Islands towards SW Iberia with cyclogenesis expected on Tuesday near the Bay of Biscay. An upper cold core over the Norwegian Sea will lead to unsettled conditions in parts of Scandinavia.

Most parts of southern Europe will see quiescent conditions on Monday and Tuesday as an upper ridge overspreads the western / central Mediterranean. Remnants of an upper trough over the E Mediterranean / Black Sea are forecast to shift eastward, leading to thunderstorms over the Black Sea and the E Mediterranean.

DISCUSSION

... SE Ireland, Irish Sea, British Channel, SW North Sea...

A few hundred J/kg of CAPE are forecast along the northern parts of the cold front and also near the upper cold core of the surface low near Scotland. A narrow multicell line may develop along the cold front in a strongly sheared environment (DLS around 30 m/s, LLS around 15 m/s) and an isolated severe gust cannot be ruled out. A strong gradient flow may allow some strong / severe gusts in the wake of the cold front which are mostly non-convective. Overall threat is too marginal for a level 1.
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martinastro
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« Reply #76 on: November 16, 2009, 09:30:57 pm »

For Tues from Tony Gilbert....



Slight Risk Strong Tornado, Large Hail and Severe Gusts 15Z-18Z NW UK

Risk of strong convection over a broader area covering Ireland & UK as per map

Very strong jet stream and deep upper troughing spread east through Tues. Bowing occluded front followed by a post frontal surface trough look to trigger convective showers primarily west coastal regions of Ireland and central west UK. Whilst GFS develop CAPE offshore it is very likely that given the strong winds available that CAPE will advect inland where any developing storm cell will be able to optimise low level shear increases through surface friction.

Red box signifies the risk of stronger cell development will be possible where strong lift is generated under the front left exit region of the jet stream and intense PV max aloft. This currently aligns with with a mid level dry punch. A slight risk for strong tornadoes will occur within a short time frame! Together with a risk for large hail with a low freezing level and dry air intervention. Convective gusts are calculated at 60kts possible

« Last Edit: November 16, 2009, 09:51:02 pm by martinastro » Report Spam   Logged

martinastro
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« Reply #77 on: November 17, 2009, 11:23:29 am »

Updated forecast, risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes today!

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=33492&posts=6&mid=486389#M486389
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« Reply #78 on: November 17, 2009, 10:55:18 pm »

some models now predicting 948 mb for next saturdays storm ireland in for quite a battering this week
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« Reply #79 on: November 18, 2009, 09:21:07 pm »

Wind has strengthened here over the last few hours but not much rain yet. The Republic has seen alot of rain again especially around the west and alot of rain forcast for tomorrow for us all.  I see the met office has a red warning out for NW England and SW Scotland, never seen that before! They're talking about maybe 250mm over the hills in that area!!  Shocked   
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martinastro
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« Reply #80 on: November 18, 2009, 10:56:00 pm »

Winds are really picking up here now too, I expect it to get lively later tonight and Thurs. ESTOFEX are not keen on much convection from the cold front on Thurs although they do have a low risk of lightning from the eastward moving trough.

Sat's storm is still on the go although it has been downgraded slightly although gales will still affect us, it could strengthen again though, weather warnings going out over much of the country. SW Ireland will be a nasty place to be on Sat/Sun. I expect there to be a tornado risk from the front. Should be worth checking out the Moyola and River Bann by Sun for some flood photo opps  Smiley
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martinastro
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« Reply #81 on: November 18, 2009, 11:01:54 pm »

UKww Weather Warning for Heavy rain and severe gales


Issued Wednesday 18/11/2009 0700BST

Areas affected: NW half of Wales, NW England, SW & W Scotland, N Ireland

Valid from: 0700GMT Weds 18th November - 1800GMT Fri 20th November


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

General evolution:


The weather during this Warning period will be dominated by a major, deep (960mb Thurs 1200) Atlantic low pressure system that is drifting slowly NE towards the gap between the UK and Iceland. On its southern flank, a conveyor of warm, moist SW winds has become established and a series of frontal waves will run along this feature during the forecast period. High pressure over Europe means that a steep pressure-gradient will remain a feature throughout.


Forecast:
Wet and windy sums up the forecast with gale to severe gale-force winds causing problems at times: however, the key feature is the prolonged rainfall that will occur, pretty much continuously through towards the end of the forecast period. Latest model guidance suggests totals of 50-80mm for North Wales and, more particularly, 90-130mm for the Lake District and hills of SW Scotland: adding in a factor for enhancement over the mountains and these figures could be exceeded by 50% or more giving 150mm+ in places. The ground is already saturated so that run-off will be very high, leading to widespread standing water on roads and rivers/streams in full spate. Prone flood-plain areas are very likely to see serious flooding leading to disruption especially into the second half of the forecast period. Road travel is likely to be adversely affected and driving conditions will be hazardous throughout the period.

This forecast period ends on the evening of Friday 20th November but readers should be aware that another round of severe weather looks likely to strike over the weekend with very windy conditions a cause for concern - more on that nearer the time.

Issued by JSM for UKww, 0700GMT 18/11/2009

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« Reply #82 on: November 18, 2009, 11:06:26 pm »

I heard on the weather forecast this evening heavy rain for the north with the west expected to get 1to3 inches of rain looks like the rivers are going to be full again.
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martinastro
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« Reply #83 on: November 19, 2009, 03:04:47 pm »

N. Ireland today, image from BBC Newline

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« Reply #84 on: November 19, 2009, 10:56:54 pm »

A lot of the west of ROI is  under water a lot of towns cut off not so bad here
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martinastro
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« Reply #85 on: November 20, 2009, 04:04:40 pm »

Amazing and frightening looking flooding in the River Bann outside Belfast today, the river is flowing into the fields near the motorway and looks dangerous. The whole thing could turn nasty over the weekend. Couldn't get images of it from the motorway.
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martinastro
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« Reply #86 on: November 20, 2009, 06:17:36 pm »

The severe floods in Britain and Cork are horrific, sorry to hear about the death of a police officer when the bridge he was standing collapsed in the terrible flood. Very sad.
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« Reply #87 on: November 20, 2009, 07:26:52 pm »

Yeah thats a tragedy.  Cumbria has had un unbelievable amount of rain, record-breaking i think.  Galway is very badly affected too and nearer home lough Erne continues to rise from runoff and alot of roads are impassable in Fermanagh.  Might try and get some images from here over the weekend.
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martinastro
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« Reply #88 on: November 20, 2009, 07:46:56 pm »

I hear there's some bad flooding in parts of NI now too.

Met Office called the Cumbrian extreme flood a 1 in 1000 year event!. The video footage is sobering.

Will keep the camera close to hand over the next few days.
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