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Possible Stormy Spell 13th to 19th Nov

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Author Topic: Possible Stormy Spell 13th to 19th Nov  (Read 3300 times)
martinastro
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« Reply #60 on: November 14, 2009, 11:37:41 pm »

http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/science_technology/storm+winds+batter+britain/3423297
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« Reply #61 on: November 15, 2009, 12:52:04 am »

The south of England definately has seen alot of action in the last 24 hours. Bit of a disappointment here though with just a drop of rain. I see theres a few more cells trying to move up the Irish sea now could be more lightning for you to watch out for Martin  Smiley
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martinastro
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« Reply #62 on: November 15, 2009, 12:56:11 am »

Well spotted Paul, I have been watching those for some time now and will be watching out for more flashes. Some OK activity in the W as well. Day time on Sun might have some nice cells around W and E coastal regions.
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paulster78
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« Reply #63 on: November 15, 2009, 01:00:55 am »

Good stuff must keep an eye out for that
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martinastro
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« Reply #64 on: November 15, 2009, 01:02:07 am »

Yip, those are cbs with anvils to the E and W of Ireland at the min. Check out the IR sat images....

http://www.sat24.nl/gb

Worth keeping an eye on.
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martinastro
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« Reply #65 on: November 15, 2009, 01:05:30 am »

Check out this report from the UKWW about the t-storm over Britain yesterday morning...

Hello all, I haven't been able to get online all day, and the people I try to talk to to don't care about the weather and it's beauty!! This morning (Saturday), at 8:40am, after getting up froma kip at 4:30am, I was woken by deep "jurassic park" rumbles of thunder, I got up and viewed out the window a non stop completely surrounding muzeum of dark, dark, furious cloud. This was followed by lots of spectacular lightning, and over 10 mins, 4 EXPLOSIONS of thunder, literally like things exploding. The hail looked like metal debris falling from the sky in perfect choreography, the winds whipped up, and then the most torrential downpour of the whole year, unbelievably LOUD, and then a humungus flash that stayed static as a light for 2 seconds, followed by an immediate B A N G, I cannot explain how loud. It's NOVEMBER, and this was the best thunder of the whole year!!!!!!!! I was looking out in anticipation for funnels, when I jumped nearly off the floor at one of these explosions that was actually thunder. It was great. Thanks for listening and reading such a long essay!!!!!!!
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« Reply #66 on: November 15, 2009, 01:20:10 am »

Jesus that sounded like some show, It reminds me of a storm right over my old house about 15 years ago when the power was out and a similar flash of lightning very close by seemed to light up the whole countryside for a few secs, the crash of thunder came almost at the same time. At the time i think we were sure it had hit the house-Scary.  Shocked
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martinastro
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« Reply #67 on: November 15, 2009, 01:20:15 am »

Sferic recorded on S. coast of Ireland from NE moving coastal storms/showers.
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« Reply #68 on: November 15, 2009, 10:56:18 am »

Our freinds from the isle of wight got torn apart by yesterdays storm shed roof came off tiles came off house and onto cars and their neighbours trampoline got sent through their frence
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martinastro
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« Reply #69 on: November 15, 2009, 12:12:11 pm »

Thanks for the report Padraig, yes the IOW got 100mph winds I believe, the strongest in the UK that morning.

Large cbs/storms currently in W and SW Ireland at coastal areas.
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martinastro
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« Reply #70 on: November 15, 2009, 04:53:33 pm »

Tornado site investigation by Paul Sherman...

Site Investigation Conducted 9am 15th November 2009 - Benfleet Essex

I walked the entire length of the Tornado track this morning and found it to be about 1/2 Mile in Length, the damage path was no more than 50yds at it's widest. The 1st Damage was picked up near the Vicarage on Rushbottom Lane and this was quite light damage to trees, the next damage was fence panels down near Overton Road, after this the Tornado strengthened and widened to it's maximum point of about 50 yards as it hit Arundel Road (1st Pic) The Lawns (Pic 2) and the Most extensive damage in the Fairway (Pic 3,4 & 5) More Chimneys and tiles loose along Seamore Avenue and Eversley Road before the Tornado once again strengthened as it hit Fairview Crescent, the Tornado looks like it dissipated along Moreland Avenue. The Track of this Tornado was directly NE Along the entire time it was on the ground. I have spoken with many different residents including John Sullivan who lives at No 1 Fairway where the most extensive damage was and he is E-Mailing me his account later. I firmly believe this Storm dropped a further Tornado to the NE as per the previous poster stating damage in South Woodham Ferriers as I saw the occlusion above my head and lost the funnel descending into the rain to my North.

Some pictures for you all and I will leave it to the Torro Boys to determine the Strength of this event from the Pictures, my initial thoughts are T1 to T2 In strength.

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martinastro
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« Reply #71 on: November 15, 2009, 06:26:33 pm »

Edited title thread to take into account the latest outlook. More deep LPs will effect much of Ireland and UK again this week, with a low on Mon and the possibility of gales or severe gales for Wed and Thurs if the models are correct. Please keep future discussion, convective outlooks,  reports, warnings etc to this thead.
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martinastro
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« Reply #72 on: November 15, 2009, 06:45:37 pm »

The 12Z Models have come better into alignment, though there are still some discrepancies. Satellite imagery indicates clear development of the cold air low on the cold side of the strengthening SW Jet Core. The Jet Strengthening as a result of the sharpening upper trough moving East. The Jet likely to be exceeding 170Knts at 00Z tonight. Baroclinic zone largely remaining undeveloped lying on the warm side of the Jet, though there is a surface wave currently coming north across Biscay.

The cold air low is well forced from PVA and shear vorticity and shows a well marked cloud hook wrapping into a developing surface circulation. There remains discrepancies over the developments depth. The NAE remains the deepest with a sub 980mb centre (though a little shallower than its 06Z counterpart) over Ireland transferring NE towards S SCotland later tomorrow. The Low remaining nr 978mbs throughout the sequence. The UKMO GM has deepened the low a little more and the ECMWF is coming in between the two. The 12Z GFS is ok re its depth - but seems to be too late developing the low and has it too much to the NW on track, much prefer the track in the ECM/NAE/GM, with the ECM probably a good guess on depth. EMCWF 925mb winds do not exceed 60knts and are mostly in the 40-50Knt range - indicating gusts should be mostly nothing to worry about.

Rain comes NE, Heavy or Very Heavy across Ireland, largely Moderate elesewhere but becoming heavy across N England and in S Scotland . NAE has consistently forecasted sig totals tomorrow afternoon for the lake district with a 22mm / 6 hr value in a grid point over Keswick. It also indicates heavy rain over N Ireland tomorrow morning. ECM has highest totals over S SCotland so there remains some doubt over the exact locations of the heaviest rain also. But N Ireland, Far N England and S Scotland are the right general areas.

As we go through the week there are strong indications of a very active and mobile SW'ly becoming establisdhed but with the worst weather transferring more to the North and west. A very mild SW'ly becoming established with good indications of a classic November Warm COnveyer with potential for lots of rain in the west and north. There are lots of variations however on the rainfall detail.

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society
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martinastro
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« Reply #73 on: November 15, 2009, 06:49:00 pm »

Met Office severe weather warning for NI Mon, mainly for heavy rain with flood risk.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_warnings.html?day=2
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« Reply #74 on: November 15, 2009, 09:36:12 pm »

Heavy rain not too far away from me now
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