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Possible Stormy Spell 13th to 19th Nov

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Author Topic: Possible Stormy Spell 13th to 19th Nov  (Read 3443 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #30 on: November 13, 2009, 11:02:37 pm »

I know what you mean, it's the unpredictable nature of the weather, even the experts get taken by surprise!.

Brian lol, you might get a retaliation on here from someone  Smiley
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« Reply #31 on: November 13, 2009, 11:08:08 pm »

I noticed that too Martin looked very interesting, rain moderate here now i wonder if any of that intense rain will come our way in the coming hours, hope so  Grin
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martinastro
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« Reply #32 on: November 13, 2009, 11:19:35 pm »

I hope so to...it's going to be a long night in front of the computer  Grin
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Padraig OBrien
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« Reply #33 on: November 13, 2009, 11:22:41 pm »

just had a very heavy but odd shower it stopped and u could here it coming in the distance again
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martinastro
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« Reply #34 on: November 13, 2009, 11:32:48 pm »

Moderate rainfall here, winds picked up for a while then relaxed again. I hope we get those strongers echoes later.

Very interesting radar over S. Britain indicating a possible convective line with LEWP which can produce tornadoes.
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martinastro
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« Reply #35 on: November 13, 2009, 11:40:16 pm »

Incase any readers on here don't know, here's the links to the Met Office radar and sferic (lightning plots) charts.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/

A LEWP is a Line Echoe Wave Pattern
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« Reply #36 on: November 13, 2009, 11:40:46 pm »

nasty random bursts of rain here  its going to be a long night

Edit : LEWP that's a new one for me Martin
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« Reply #37 on: November 14, 2009, 12:33:58 am »

Flooding has to be inevitable across western ireland by now some serious echoes there and arent budging
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« Reply #38 on: November 14, 2009, 12:40:53 am »

Heavy rain here now battering off the conservatory roof!
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martinastro
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« Reply #39 on: November 14, 2009, 12:49:06 am »

Getting interesting, after a lull the radar as intensified over NI with red echoes. Thunderstorms have formed over the coast near Dublin, Padraig watch the sky to your E and NE for flashes.

Tony Gilbert reckons there's a good environment for tornadoes over S. Britain at the moment, in the exact same area as the tornado last week.
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« Reply #40 on: November 14, 2009, 12:54:07 am »

Cant see any atm Martin although can see a structure i wonder too far away
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martinastro
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« Reply #41 on: November 14, 2009, 12:57:47 am »

OK, check the sferic link above and see what direction those recent plots are in relation to you. I seen a flash of lightning last night in a clear sky complete with c-g bolt and it was hundreds of miles away to the SW over the Atlantic. If visibility is poor then it won't be so easy. Those showers are turning into storms...some of them anyway. Also, the sferics charts only plot c-gs and not i-c bolts so there could be storms out there that we don't know about.
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martinastro
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« Reply #42 on: November 14, 2009, 01:00:11 am »

Outlook for Sat...



Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 14 Nov 2009 06:00 to Sun 15 Nov 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 14 Nov 2009 00:06
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 2 was issued for parts of the English Channel and the coastal areas of S-UK mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for most parts of the UK, surrounding the level 2 mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

Extensive cyclonic vortex over far NW-Europe steers numerous disturbances around its fringes, which affect western and N-Europe during the forecast. Ridging over the Mediterranean suppresses convection, whereas cooler/stable conditions persist over E-Europe.

DISCUSSION

... S-UK and the English Channel ...

The main story of the day will be the passage of the upper trough axis with the attendant intense depression/pressure gradient over S-UK/the English Channel.

The wind forecast is straightforward as 35-40m/s at 850hPa will mix down easily towards the surface, so damaging and potential life-threatening wind gusts affect the southern part of the UK until 18 UTC, exiting the area thereafter towards the east. Some weakening of the wind field is forecast over far SE-UK, but kinematics are still adequate for isolated extreme wind gust events.

The tornado risk is already more uncertain but most likely maximized along the coastal areas of S/SE-UK, where some onshore moisture causes marginal CAPE. Strong tornadoes will be possible, if more persistent updrafts can evolve. However this brings us to the main uncertainty: convection.

The region will be placed beneath the weakening sting jet, where intrusion of dry, high-level air and constantly evaporatively cooled airmass inhibits deep convection. This is also seen in warm EL temperature forecasts and slim convective precipitation signals. However, dry slotted areas could also see some insolation and not much BL modification is needed along the coast for deeper convective updrafts. A strong vorticity love also crosses S-UK during the daytime hours, so despite slim signals, at least supportive conditions for deep convection can't be ruled out along the coast and SE-UK.

Probably the most likely scenario will be a rapidly E/NE-ward racing forced line of convection over S-UK. Conditions onshore become worse, so the strongest activity remains confined along the south coast (probably enhanced by diurnal heating) and the level 2 was expanded inland, where the tornado risk is enhanced next to the damaging wind gust threat. As convection is forecast to play at least a partial role in this severe wind event, a level 2 became necessary. The overall risk diminishes from west to east during the day. The level-2 was expanded well towards the west, as latest data indicates a slow-down of the eastward progression of the strongest winds.




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Padraig OBrien
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« Reply #43 on: November 14, 2009, 01:01:00 am »

id say between E - SE somewherew seem to be off wicklow mountains could be blocking though ill still keep watch

EDIT: havent seen anything yet theres a clear slot between me and those storms in the distance ive got a big Hotel complex in my way so i cant see horizon levels
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« Reply #44 on: November 14, 2009, 01:11:17 am »

Huge storm off Kerry coast
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