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Possible Stormy Spell 13th to 19th Nov

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Author Topic: Possible Stormy Spell 13th to 19th Nov  (Read 3749 times)
Martin Mc Kenna
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Maghera, N. Ireland

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« Reply #75 on: November 16, 2009, 09:30:57 pm »

For Tues from Tony Gilbert....

Slight Risk Strong Tornado, Large Hail and Severe Gusts 15Z-18Z NW UK

Risk of strong convection over a broader area covering Ireland & UK as per map

Very strong jet stream and deep upper troughing spread east through Tues. Bowing occluded front followed by a post frontal surface trough look to trigger convective showers primarily west coastal regions of Ireland and central west UK. Whilst GFS develop CAPE offshore it is very likely that given the strong winds available that CAPE will advect inland where any developing storm cell will be able to optimise low level shear increases through surface friction.

Red box signifies the risk of stronger cell development will be possible where strong lift is generated under the front left exit region of the jet stream and intense PV max aloft. This currently aligns with with a mid level dry punch. A slight risk for strong tornadoes will occur within a short time frame! Together with a risk for large hail with a low freezing level and dry air intervention. Convective gusts are calculated at 60kts possible

« Last Edit: November 16, 2009, 09:51:02 pm by martinastro » Report Spam   Logged

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