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Possible Stormy Spell 13th to 19th Nov

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Author Topic: Possible Stormy Spell 13th to 19th Nov  (Read 3830 times)
Martin Mc Kenna
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Maghera, N. Ireland

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« Reply #60 on: November 15, 2009, 06:45:37 pm »

The 12Z Models have come better into alignment, though there are still some discrepancies. Satellite imagery indicates clear development of the cold air low on the cold side of the strengthening SW Jet Core. The Jet Strengthening as a result of the sharpening upper trough moving East. The Jet likely to be exceeding 170Knts at 00Z tonight. Baroclinic zone largely remaining undeveloped lying on the warm side of the Jet, though there is a surface wave currently coming north across Biscay.

The cold air low is well forced from PVA and shear vorticity and shows a well marked cloud hook wrapping into a developing surface circulation. There remains discrepancies over the developments depth. The NAE remains the deepest with a sub 980mb centre (though a little shallower than its 06Z counterpart) over Ireland transferring NE towards S SCotland later tomorrow. The Low remaining nr 978mbs throughout the sequence. The UKMO GM has deepened the low a little more and the ECMWF is coming in between the two. The 12Z GFS is ok re its depth - but seems to be too late developing the low and has it too much to the NW on track, much prefer the track in the ECM/NAE/GM, with the ECM probably a good guess on depth. EMCWF 925mb winds do not exceed 60knts and are mostly in the 40-50Knt range - indicating gusts should be mostly nothing to worry about.

Rain comes NE, Heavy or Very Heavy across Ireland, largely Moderate elesewhere but becoming heavy across N England and in S Scotland . NAE has consistently forecasted sig totals tomorrow afternoon for the lake district with a 22mm / 6 hr value in a grid point over Keswick. It also indicates heavy rain over N Ireland tomorrow morning. ECM has highest totals over S SCotland so there remains some doubt over the exact locations of the heaviest rain also. But N Ireland, Far N England and S Scotland are the right general areas.

As we go through the week there are strong indications of a very active and mobile SW'ly becoming establisdhed but with the worst weather transferring more to the North and west. A very mild SW'ly becoming established with good indications of a classic November Warm COnveyer with potential for lots of rain in the west and north. There are lots of variations however on the rainfall detail.

Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society
« Last Edit: November 15, 2009, 06:47:28 pm by martinastro » Report Spam   Logged

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