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Possible Stormy Spell 13th to 19th Nov

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Author Topic: Possible Stormy Spell 13th to 19th Nov  (Read 3300 times)
martinastro
Martin Mc Kenna
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« Reply #15 on: November 13, 2009, 02:55:32 pm »



TORRO TORNADO WATCH 2009/009

A TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 13:20GMT on Friday 13th November 2009

Valid from/until: 13:20 - 14:00GMT on Friday 13th/Saturday 14th November 2009, for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Parts of (see map)

All of England and Wales

S Scotland

Eire
N Ireland

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 80mph; hail to 15mm diameter; CG lightning

SYNOPSIS

Rapidly deepening low exhibiting warm-seclusion characteristics will push an active set of fronts across the British Isles today and tonight, and then an active occlusion/trough eastwards across southern parts tomorrow.

Convection is currently occurring in the strong warm advection regime near SW England, and will spread northwards this afternoon and evening across western parts. This brings the risk of strong winds and hail, and CG lightning, but also a slight risk of tornadoes - the risk extending along the south coast and perhaps into other areas of S England this afternoon along the northward moving front.

Overnight tonight a strong cold front will surge eastwards bringing squally wind gusts of up to 65mph inland and 70mph on the south coast, some aided by convection. In addition, a chance exists for a few tornadoes, perhaps strong. This risk is mainly for central and southern England and Wales.

Later tonight and through tomorrow morning, an active occlusion will be pushed eastwards across England and Wales, again especially across southern parts. Some severe convection may accompany this, bringing wind gusts of up to 80mph in exposed SW'ern parts, and 60-70mph elsewhere. A risk of tornadoes exists with this too, especially if convective lines develop.

The purple area on the WATCH map is the region deemed most at risk from severe winds - a dangerous situation as inland gusts this high are rare in southern Britain.

Forecaster: RPK
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